March Madness West Region Breakdown: Will Top-Seeded Florida Make the Final Four?

The Florida Gators took down the SEC tournament and earned the top seed in this region without a shadow of a doubt. Can they cruise through this grouping after showing well in the best conference of all time?

March Madness Picks: West Region

The Gators, maybe more than any other team owning a top-five seed, have been trending up in my ranks over the course of the season. As encouraged as I’ve been with their growth (their overall ranking for me is about as good as it gets given their inability to consistently knock down free throws), this region is statistically a tough draw for them.

Florida is phenomenal on the glass, a strength that could be neutralized in a region that has three other top-12 rebounding teams. The West is also home to four top-12 rebounding teams and four top-12 free-throw percentage teams.

The top seed could win four games in a row, and it wouldn’t shock me, but I’m not picking it. Texas Tech profiles as the type of team that gives them fits, and I think they ultimately do, with a trip to the Final Four on the line.

Why the Red Raiders?

They operate at a slow pace and with their lockdown defense settling in during halfcourt sets, Florida is a good bet to struggle to reach their offensive ceiling should this matchup come to fruition. Texas Tech’s combination of elite passing metrics and accuracy from the line give them a higher production floor and makes them my pick, even if I think their best cae scenario doesn’t match that of the Gators.

Part of the math that goes into that prediction is that I fear Florida’s path to that contest more than Texas Tech’s. The two-time reigning champions loom in Round 2, and while UConn isn’t nearly as good as it has been, its offense is remarkably stable thanks to the trio of Solo Ball, Liam McNeeley, and Alex Karaban. I’m not forecasting the upset, but the Huskies are discounting Texas Tech in that they limit the possession count and don’t beat themselves.

Assuming the Gators survive the first weekend, I’ve got Colorado State making a run to the Sweet 16 – another slow team that boasts an efficient offense. Maybe I’m dead wrong and Florida can handle this general profile, but I don’t like their outlook in these spots and the fact that they may have to win three straight games of that ilk scares me enough to be looking at Texas Tech in the futures market.

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I expect Kansas to draw some attention in the bottom portion of this region based on name value. In my opinion, the preseason top overall seed is better than their seed line suggests, but their lack of consistency both on the offensive end and on the glass is likely to prove prohibitive in this region of bullies.

St. John’s seed is appealing and their form is enticing, but scoring is such an uphill battle for this team – prolonged slumps aren’t going to cut it in this region and that’s why I’d be surprised if they go on to represent this grouping.

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