March Madness Sleepers: Ranking The Double-Digit Seeds

Rome wasn’t built in a day.

That’s a cliche, but it holds for the tournament, especially when it comes to identifying March Madness sleepers. These teams have spent months in giving us a body of work to consider — they are so much more than a seed line that was determined on Sunday night.

So, who is under-seeded? Who could prove to be the story of the best event in sports?

March Madness Sleepers: Evaluating Double-Digit Seeds

By design, a single-elimination tournament encourages chaos. It’s why we love this and it’s job security for me — until someone cracks this code, I’m going to continue to try.

Based on our custom March Madness Power Rankings, we are able to assign advance rates for every team in every matchup. In doing so, here are the double-digit seeds most likely to make a run to the second week of action and potentially blow up the brackets of your competition.

As you can see, there are levels to this. My numbers view it as likely for Colorado State and Liberty to make the Sweet 16, even if it’s tight. Given the level of projected competition, that’s quite the statement for a team on this seed line, but these teams have earned it.

Colorado State

Profile: The Rams are one of the best passing teams you’ll see play over the next week. I’m not talking about only the double-digit seeds- they are one of the best in the field. Nique Clifford drives the ship (Colorado State’s leader in points, rebounds, assists, and steals) and he is surrounded by a cast of teammates that is more than happy to lean into that.

With 120 starts on his D-I resume, this is a player you can trust in tight games and with this team playing at a far slower pace than the matchups they will draw if chalk holds, quality over quantity is a battle they can win.

Path: If things go according to seed, they will play Maryland for a trip to the second week of this event provided they can upset Memphis. In that first round matchup, Colorado State grades as the better defensive team and in Round 2, they likely square off with one of the worst seed-adjusted passing teams in the field.

Oh — I wouldn’t rule them out of making a run further than this. That would likely mean ousting the Florida Gators and while that may seem aggressive, with a week to gameplan, I don’t think it’s crazy. They’d aim to slow down that explosive offense, and with both teams fouling too often, the Rams could shock the world if it turned into a free-throw shooting contest (they are 10th best in the field, and Florida ranks 51st).

Liberty

Profile: Many lower-seeded teams have talent that isn’t that far off of those a handful of seed lines higher, but they lack discipline. Usually, these teams, over the course of 40 minutes, will play themselves out of contention, and that is largely true while the Elite Eight is filled with the blue blood programs you’re aware of.

“Usually” isn’t always and this Liberty team very much bucks that trend. I just spent time preaching about how good CSU is at passing the rock — the Flames are better and considering that is one of the metrics tied to winning this time of year, I’m very interested in backing this team to do some damage.

Conference USA doesn’t boast about the type of competition that Liberty will be asked to handle this week, but they can only play who is on the schedule, and they’ve been a top-10 defense up to this point.

No upstart team is complete without some portability, and Taelon Peter offers just that — the man has knocked down 46% of his triples this season. He’s getting hot at the perfect time (in six games this month, he’s 39-of-52 from the field).

Path: Liberty has Oregon in Round 1 and potentially a date with Arizona in Round 2 — two teams that played considerably more difficult regular season schedules, but neither showed the buy-in on the defensive end that the Flames have.

My numbers weigh strength of schedule in a pretty significant way and Liberty’s metric still check in ahead of both of those more popular programs. In a one game setting where anything can happen, given me the consistent team that has shown, at the very least, an elevated floor that should keep them competitive.

This is where there is some game theory at play — I have Duke ranked as having second best March Madness profile over the past five years and have them winning the entire thing. With that being the case, I feel more freedom with my upset picks, knowing that I feel good about who I have ultimately advancing out of this region.

It’s easy to get cute and try to jam all of these upsets into your bracket, especially if you are rewarded points for seed victories. I’d be careful not to get out of control in that regard, but there are three other programs holding a double-digit seed that make up my second tier of Cinderella.

Lipscomb

Profile: You don’t have to be faster than the bear; you just have to be faster than your friends, who the bear is also chasing.

Kind of a grim analogy, but you get the idea. Do I think Lipscomb is an elite team? I don’t, but the path opens up nicely for them. As for a profile, it’s really quite simple: the Bison are going to beat you in scoring at the free-throw line and ask you to stop Jacob Ongnacevic on a consistent basis.

The ASUN conference couldn’t crack that code, and I’m not sure the South region is much better equipped. The senior is having a monster year (20.1 points on 57.3% shooting from the field and 40.2% from deep) and is the type of swingman who is a nightmare to guard in virtually any matchup.

As for the free throw thing — it sounds simple, but it’s proven predictive and it’s easy to understand why. This disciplined group rarely fouls, and Ongnacevic is their worst free-throw shooter of the primary ball-handlers … at 79.8%. Basketball is a game of runs and once Lipscomb makes theirs, they profile as good as anyone at making it last.

Path: For me, this is the selling point. Iowa State has had a great season, but they will be without Keshon Gilbert and that hurts. Not only does he lead this team in minutes per game, he’s started 65 games over the past two seasons and gives them an occasionally sporadic offense a calm heartbeat.

Without him, this is a coin flip situation and waiting in the second round is either Ole Miss (the worst rebounding team in the field) or the winner of San Diego State (a bottom-10 offense in the field) and North Carolina (a team most had not qualifying for the dance at all).

It can be uncomfortable advancing a 14-seed one round, let alone two, but how often do you see “comfortable” brackets cash in your pools?

UC San Diego

Profile: I expect this team to generate a lot of hype over the next few days and they deserve it. This team has won 30 of 34 games and owns the most efficient defense in the field. Of course, that stat losses some luster given the competition, or lack thereof in the Big West, but this is an experienced bunch with a lot of length on the perimeter, something that translates well against any level of opponent.

Guard play is another thing that plays well this time of year and the Tritons have that. Their top three scorers are all opportunistic guards who combine for over 5.5 steals per game and can all put the ball in the bucket in a variety of ways.

Rebounding is a weakness that could be exploited, but their ability to force poor shots could help offset that and allow them to make some noise.

Path: A talented but offensively inconsistent Michigan team awaits UC San Diego in the first round, and that’s exactly the type of profile I want to target. Even if you don’t think this defense translates perfectly for a step up in competition, it’s not difficult to see the Wolverines going through droughts, droughts that I just don’t see this Tritons team going through, given their profile.

Based on my ranks, they catch a break in the path as I have Texas A&M as the most overrated team by seed. Should they get the Aggies and their worst eFG% in this field, I see them grinding out a slugfest. I don’t have that matchup occurring, however, and if that happens, I like their chances even more — Yale has posted average defensive numbers despite playing a lower level of play than UC San Diego.

Layering upsets isn’t something I love to do, but I’ve picked it that way in this spot due to the profile differences.

Utah State

Profile: I typically prefer defensive-minded Cinderella teams, understanding that any team at this level can get hot on the offensive end, but the Utah State profile is offensive-oriented.

The Aggies have a pair of guars in Ian Martinez and Mason Falslev capable of combining for 40 on any given night. They can score at all three levels and the gravity they create opens up things for their supporting cast.

No double-digit seed is going to own a perfect profile, and I’ve got defensive questions here, but if this team is allowed to dictate tempo, you’re going to be surprised at what they can do.

Path: A first-round matchup with UCLA is perfect. They get a good draw and you get to be different by picking against a low-seeded blue blood. The Bruins’ defense is simply average, and they aren’t the type of team that can take advantage of an undersized Aggies team on the glass.

I feel good about them getting to the weekend, but asking them to oust Tennessee is a tall order. We saw Florida generate good looks in the SEC title game against this stingy Volunteers defense, so there’s a path for the slipper to fit here, but I’m not going that far on my bracket.

The odds are very good that I’ll be investing in these teams regularly in the betting markets. As for bracket challenges, here is what we are looking at:

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