The Houston Cougars have won 30+ games in each of the past four seasons, two as a member of the AAC and the last two in the Big 12. They’ve finished eight straight regular seasons in the AP Poll and have, at one time or another, held a top-6 ranking in each of the past five seasons.
All of that success and they get stuck in a brutal region where surviving through the first weekend is far from a given.
March Madness Picks: Midwest Region
By rankings, the Midwest region is home to the second-best two-seed on the board, the top three-seed, and the top-four seed. There are 13 teams in this grouping that I think have a real chance to win at least a game, and in spots like that, I’m almost never going to be clicking the top seed all the way through.
What does Houston do well?
They are tough defensively and have the ability to make shots in bunches, but the consistency isn’t what I want from my one-seed. They want to bleed the clock and bet on winning the trenches – that’s fine in any one game sample size, but when it comes to stringing four (or more) games together this time of year, it’s a tough sell.
In that vein, why can’t Gonzaga make it a short tournament experience for Houston? The Cougars are betting on their efficiency being greater than yours, but the Bulldogs are about as good on a per-possession basis as anyone in the country.
Even if they survive that game (or don’t have to face Gonzaga), they are likely to run into Braden Smith, who may be the best point guard in the nation. The three-year starter is averaging three dimes for every turnover this season while finding his voice as a scoring threat (16.1 PPG).
Braden Smith is the obvious choice.
🏆 Big Ten Player of the Year. pic.twitter.com/WQqDu2tdFN
— Purdue Men's Basketball (@BoilerBall) March 11, 2025
If they survive all of that, they will face either a team in Tennessee, whom I have labeled as a slightly better version of Houston, or Kentucky, one of the rare teams that I think has the potential to speed up the Cougars and make them comfortable.
This is the region I’m having the most trouble with and in spots like that, i typically embrace variance. I have all of the teams so tight in my overall power rankings that I’m happy to be different from the majority of my competition and look to gain points here.
MORE: March Madness Cinderella Picks
Clemson and Utah State are both live teams that overachieved based on their seeding, but I ran out of space to advance them! I’d be surprised if the winner of March Madness came out of the Midwest, but I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if your bracket pool is decided by who nails this grouping and picks up points in bunches as a result.
| Tourney Rank | School | Seed |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Gonzaga | 8 |
| 3 | Kentucky | 3 |
| 5 | Purdue | 4 |
| 13 | Tennessee | 2 |
| 22 | Xavier | 11 |
| 23 | Utah State | 10 |
| 25 | Illinois | 6 |
| 28 | Clemson | 5 |
| 29 | Houston | 1 |
| 34 | UCLA | 7 |
| 36 | High Point | 13 |
| 40 | McNeese State | 12 |
| 49 | Georgia | 9 |
| 50 | Wofford | 15 |
| 53 | Texas | 11 |
| 61 | Troy | 14 |
| 66 | SIU Edwardsville | 16 |
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