March Madness East Region Breakdown: Will Top-Seeded Duke Make the Final Four?

The Duke Blue Devils have been one of the primary stories all season long and they sit atop the East Region in terms of seeding, but is this a good spot to go with the chalk option? Or is it a spot to channel March Madness chaos?

March Madness Picks, East Region

I’ve made it clear and will continue to do so – Duke’s statistical profile is as impressive (maybe more so) as the raw talent they have on this roster. They check in as the second-best team when evaluating through the lens of predictive March Madness data since the pandemic (six other teams in this field appear on the historical list but not on the same tier) and, for me, are an easy click-all the way through this region.

In a high-scoring region, anything can happen, but this draw looks ideal to me for a few reasons. Not only are all of the high-powered offenses in a place to cannibalize one another before potentially seeing Duke in the Elite Eight, but this Blue Devils team ranks in the 25th percentile when it comes to pace in this field and have the personnel to keep the possession count in check.

By putting an increased level of value on every trip down the floor, they project very well against these quantity-over-quality offenses. I’m not sure I have to sell you on the top-seed being advanced through this region, so let’s focus more on where you can gain on your competition, understanding that Duke is going to be a chalky pick.

I discussed Liberty in my March Madness Cinderella’s piece and I truly believe that they are a great game theory pick.

What do you have to lose?

If they come through, you pick up a few points on your competition and if not, you’re not losing long-term potential as they likely line up across from Duke in the Sweet 16. My concern with getting cute in picking upsets is losing potential value, but in the case of the Flames, you don’t stand to lose much when it comes to estimated value of your bracket.

MORE: March Madness Cinderella Picks

My numbers say it, my eyes say it, and my heart says it. Alabama, Wisconsin, and BYU are all slight variations of the same team. Naturally, that makes splitting hairs a bit difficult, but Alabama projects as the only of the three that wouldn’t have to beat the other two in order to get to the Elite Eight. Combine that scheduling benefit with the fact that they produced the same statistical profile as the others while playing a superior level of competition and I think this is a region where you swallow the chalk.

This region is reasonably symbolic of how I expect this tournament to go as a whole – chaos through the first four days with the tams you’d largely expect being there still being alive at the end of next weekend.

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