If you’re new to midweek MACtion, then you may be surprised that four MAC teams entered November with a single loss and seven teams enter the midweek portion of their schedules with mathematical chances to make the MAC Championship.
Let’s break down who has the most realistic chances.
MAC Championship Game Odds
Getting to the latest MAC Championship odds after Week 11, let’s look at the road map for each team and use the CFN Football Playoff Meter as a guide to see who is most likely to make (and win) the title game.
So, here’s what we did: we locked in the results following the two MAC games on Saturday, as well as every other MAC game to this point.
We then simulated the MAC season over 10,000 times, locking in with those current results and simulating the final three weeks of action in the process. Here’s how each team fared and an explanation of how we got there further down.
MAC Championship Game Winning Probability
- Miami-OH: 48.50%
- Ohio: 23.63%
- Western Michigan: 13.34%
- Bowling Green: 8.95%
- Toledo: 5.02%
- Buffalo: 0.28%
- Northern Illinois: 0.24%
- Ball State: 0.04%
Technically, all of these teams are alive, and three weeks of action remain. But it’s surely not as simple for the bottom teams as it is for those with one loss.
We’ll get into those scenarios below the updated standings below.
Updated MAC Standings
1) Miami (OH) RedHawks 5-4 (4-1)
2) Ohio Bobcats 6-3 (4-1)
3) Bowling Green Falcons 5-4 (4-1)
4) Western Michigan Broncos 5-4 (4-1)
5) Buffalo Bulls 5-4 (3-2)
6) Toledo Rockets 6-3 (3-2)
7) Ball State Cardinals 3-6 (2-3)
8) Eastern Michigan Eagles 5-4 (2-3)
9) Northern Illinois Huskies 5-4 (2-3)
10) Central Michigan Chippewas 3-6 (1-4)
11) Akron Zips 2-7 (1-4)
12) Kent State Golden Flashes 0-9 (0-5)
Miami’s MAC Championship Road Map
The odds on favorites to win the MAC right now are the RedHawks down in Oxford. That’s because outside of a road trip to end the year, they should be heavy favorites to win their next two during the midweek portion of the season.
Miami is the only one-loss team nearing a control-their-own-destiny mode. That’s because of the four one-loss teams in conference play, only Western Michigan and Bowling Green play each other, meaning three teams could still finish with just one loss in conference play.
However, the RedHawks have a head-to-head win over Ohio, the only common victory over the three teams that would finish with just one loss in this scenario, meaning they’d get the first nod in the tiebreaker scenarios if all else fails. Technically, it goes to ‘winning percentage versus all common opponents’ as the second MAC tiebreaker scenario, but Miami’s win over Ohio would tick off the tertiary tiebreaking scenario.
Either way, Miami’s map to the MAC Championship Game is simply: win, because that would also give them a win against Bowling Green at the end of the year.
- Kent State: 91.5%
- Northern Illinois: 63.6%
- @ Bowling Green: 47.2%
Ohio’s MAC Championship Road Map
The Bobcats are in a sticky situation because they’re the only team in the one-loss group that has a heads-up loss to another common team at this moment. Their loss to Miami earlier this year may come back to sting them, however, they have a winnable slate to end the year, meaning they could end the year on a five-game winning streak and finish 7-1 in MAC play.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With Bowling Green playing both WMU and Miami, there could be a trio of teams to split these games and leave it a bigger mess. The tiebreaker scenarios would go to total winning percentage against common opponents, so any win against the top-ranked or top-performing teams in the conference are key.
Given Ohio has only one of the top teams here on their list, and they’ve already lost to them, it’s a tough situation. They can win out and still miss out it appears.
The Bobcats will have to root for Bowling Green (or NIU or Kent State, but .. we know that’s not happening) to knock off Miami while also winning their last three.
- Eastern Michigan: 65.7%
- @ Toledo: 49.4%
- Ball State: 71.6%
Western Michigan’s MAC Championship Road Map
The Broncos have an easy route to the MAC Championship, if they can get by Bowling Green. WMU has winnable road games following their last home game of the season, which they’ll have to hope their home crowd is raucous on Wednesday when Bowling Green comes to town, because at this rate, their clash with BGSU is essentially a MAC eliminator.
If Western Michigan wins out, they’ll successfully kick Bowling Green out of the MAC Championship picture and then still need some help as Miami would own the tiebreaker, and WMU and Ohio would own the same conference record.
The tiebreaking scenario then moves to winning percentage against all common opponents. So, let’s break that out as it stands right now for WMU, Ohio, Bowling Green, and Miami, just for fun. Common opponents for these teams are Ball State, Kent State, and Central Michigan.
Current winning percentages against common opponents of these four teams:
- WMU: 100% — 2-0 (yet to play Central Michigan)
- BGSU: 100% — 2-0 (yet to play Ball State)
- Ohio: 100% — 2-0 (yet to play Ball State)
- Miami: 100% — 2-0 (yet to play Kent State)
So there you have it; we would have to go to tiebreaker No. 3 or 4 if the season were to end today. But, with three full weeks of action remaining, each team can prove their own and hope for some help. First up, though, is a big one in terms of MAC Championship placement for WMU against Bowling Green.
- Bowling Green: 42.6%
- @ Central Michigan: 66.9%
- @ Eastern Michigan: 71.6%
Bowling Green’s MAC Championship Road Map
If you haven’t read each scenario above, do so, it’ll help you understand why Bowling Green’s MAC Championship probability is the lowest of the four one-loss teams. Here’s the main reason, however, and that’s because of all the one-loss teams, only Bowling Green takes on two of the other trio.
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Bowling Green plays both Western Michigan and Miami, all vying for the championship ticket. Sandwiched in between those two are the Falcons’ other common opponent among the four one-loss teams, a trip to Muncie to play Ball State where anything can happen.
- Western Michigan: 57.4%
- @ Ball State: 71.6%
- Miami-OH: 52.8%
Toledo’s MAC Championship Road Map
Toledo presents the only other team with anything above a 1.0% chance to make the championship game. That’s because they can own the tiebreaker in head-to-head play over Ohio with a win in Week 13 while they also can hope for a split between Bowling Green, Western Michigan, and Miami to help their chances.
With what could be multiple two-loss teams, Toledo’s winning out would be the only way they get there. That, of course, and some help.
- Central Michigan: 63.6%
- Ohio: 50.6%
- @ Akron: 61.1%
Buffalo’s MAC Championship Road Map
At this point, the Bulls have an outside chance mainly because they just don’t play any team of note down the stretch, or at least any team in the hunt. That’s because Buffalo has already lost to Western Michigan and Ohio, both of whom are in the hunt.
Buffalo has the head-to-head disadvantage in this scenario if either were to drop a game down the stretch. However, Buffalo does have a win against Toledo and a win against Northern Illinois back when NIU was in the top 25 going for them if we get down into the tiebreaker scenarios past Nos. 3 and 4.
- Ball State: 64.6%
- @ Eastern Michigan: 50.8%
- Kent State: 83.3%
Northern Illinois’ MAC Championship Road Map
Long shots are one thing; thinking the chips would fall in the right way for Northern Illinois is a completely different line of thinking. NIU would have to defeat Miami in two weeks, hope for Bowling Green to lose to Miami but then beat Western Michigan, and hope for a split of games between Toledo over Ohio or Ball State to knock off Ohio or Bowling Green as well.
The Huskies aren’t out of it, but it’s close.
- Akron: 73.4%
- @ Miami-OH: 36.4%
- Central Michigan: 65.7%
Ball State’s MAC Championship Road Map
Ball State nearly controls their own destiny in this scenario. Despite sitting at 2-3 in conference play, they can bring Bowling Green and Ohio down to the two-loss fray while also hoping that those same opponents would then knock out each other and the other one-loss teams to bring absolute chaos to the fray.
Like NIU, Ball State’s chances are razor-thin. One thing is for sure, however, and that is the fact that Ball State will be integral in the MAC Championship picture this season because of their games against Bowling Green and Ohio down the stretch.
- @ Buffalo: 35.4%
- Bowling Green: 28.4%
- @ Ohio: 28.4%
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