The Kennesaw State Owls head to Murfreesboro on Tuesday night in search of their first-ever win as an FBS team. On the other side, the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders are eager to secure their first conference victory after a tough start to the season. Who will come out on top in this midweek CUSA showdown?
Our Kennesaw State vs. Middle Tennessee prediction covers all the details you need, from the latest betting odds to each team’s prospects for the rest of the 2024 college football season.
Kennesaw State vs. Middle Tennessee Betting Preview
All Kennesaw State vs. Middle Tennessee odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Oct. 14, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Middle Tennessee -8.5 - Spread
Middle Tennessee -8.5 - Moneyline
Middle Tennessee -395, Kennesaw State +310 - Over/Under
50.5 points - Game time
8 p.m. ET - Location
Johnny “Red” Floyd Stadium | Murfreesboro, TN - Predicted Weather at Kick
33 degrees, clear and cold, 6 mph winds - How to Watch
CBS Sports Network
Middle Tennessee enters this bottom-of-the-table CUSA clash as a substantial favorite for just the second time this season. The first was the season-opener against FCS outfit Tennessee Tech, and they barely scraped a win. Kennesaw State is used to being an underdog this year, as the Owls have struggled to transition to FBS life in their first year in the CUSA.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
While they’ve yet to win a game outright, the Owls have also struggled against the spread, going 1-4 and failing to cover in their last four outings. That said, the Blue Raiders are 1-5 against the spread this year, and the only time they covered was as a 27-point underdog.
The total and spread moved a bit back down during this one, reaching the exact same mark as the CFN FPM spread just ahead of kickoff.
Kennesaw State’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Kennesaw State has just a 24.5% chance of overcoming Middle Tennessee on the road in Week 8. Without a win to their name so far, the Owls have looked ill-equipped to overcome most of their opponents, and there’s a solid chance they will go winless in their inaugural FBS campaign.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for Kennesaw State this fall:
- at Middle Tennessee: 25.4%
- vs. Liberty: 7.7%
- at Western Kentucky: 7.2%
- at UTEP: 36.4%
- vs. Sam Houston: 17.2%
- vs. FIU: 26.2%
- at Louisiana Tech: 20.1%
If these win probabilities hold true, then the Owls will finish the 2024 campaign with a 0-12 record. Their best chance of getting a win comes on the road at UTEP, although even then, they’re a projected five-point underdog.
Middle Tennessee’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Middle Tennessee has a 74.6% chance of beating Kennesaw State on Tuesday night. This is comfortably the easiest game remaining on the Blue Raiders’ schedule, giving them a solid chance of getting their first CUSA win on the board.
Here are the remaining Middle Tennessee win probabilities for this season:
- vs. Kennesaw State: 74.6%
- at Jacksonville State: 28.4%
- at UTEP: 53.8%
- vs. Liberty: 19.4%
- vs. New Mexico State: 64.6%
- at FIU: 41.1%
If these win probabilities hold true, the Blue Raiders will end the year with a 4-8 overall record and a 3-5 CUSA record, the same as saw the demise of long-tenured former head coach Rick Stockstill.
Prediction for Kennesaw State vs. Middle Tennessee
It’s hard to imagine a rougher start to the season than what the two teams squaring off on Tuesday night have faced. Both Middle Tennessee and Kennesaw State are desperately seeking a win to regain some respectability this fall.
Middle Tennessee’s lone victory in 2024 came against an FCS team, while Kennesaw State couldn’t even pull out a win in their transition from the FCS ranks.
Will the Owls notch their first win in the FBS, or will Derek Mason finally see signs of progress with his Blue Raiders? Who has the upper hand, and where will the critical matchups take place?
When predicting college football games, the usual approach is to match strengths against weaknesses or identify tendencies that could tilt the game. But in this Kennesaw State vs. Middle Tennessee prediction, we’re dealing with two struggling offenses and defenses that have been even worse.
Neither team has been able to score consistently or stop their opponents.
Kennesaw State has managed just 14.6 points per game, ranking 130th in the nation, while Middle Tennessee isn’t much better, putting up 16.8 points per game, good for 126th.
Defensively, Kennesaw State allows 36 points per game (122nd nationally), and the Blue Raiders give up 40.5—only four teams in the country have allowed more.
That said, Middle Tennessee has faced tough offenses like Ole Miss and Western Kentucky, and Kennesaw State doesn’t bring that level of firepower. While the Blue Raiders have given up 14 touchdowns on the ground and 4.82 yards per carry, it gives hope for Michael Benefield and Preston Daniels to find the end zone, but they shouldn’t be completely overwhelmed.
Kennesaw State’s pass defense, allowing 243.4 yards per game with just one interception, gives Nicholas Vattiato a chance to shine. Keep an eye on Auburn transfer WR Omari Kelly, who leads the Blue Raiders with 574 yards and three touchdowns.
After giving up eight rushing touchdowns to Jacksonville State, this could be a breakout game for running back Jaiden Credle as well.
Prediction: Kennesaw State 21, Middle Tennessee 30
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