The Big 12 Conference has delivered one of the most chaotic and thrilling seasons to date, and their title game promises to be just as electrifying. The 10-2 Arizona State Sun Devils and the 10-2 Iowa State Cyclones are set to face off in the home of the Dallas Cowboys for the championship.
Who will rise to the occasion? Our Iowa State vs. Arizona State prediction dives into the latest odds, win probabilities, and forecasts the outcome of the Big 12 Championship Game.
Iowa State vs. Arizona State Betting Preview
All Iowa State vs. Arizona State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Saturday, Dec. 7, 2024. The CFN FPM Spread is from the College Football Network Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Arizona State -1 - Spread
Arizona State -1 - Moneyline
Arizona State -118, Iowa State -102 - Over/Under
50.5 points - Game time
Noon ET - Location
AT&T Stadium | Arlington, TX. - Predicted Weather at Kick
56 degrees, partly cloudy, 2 mph winds - How to Watch
ABC
A quirk of college football conference realignment, the Cyclones and Sun Devils meet for the very first time, having avoided each other in Arizona State’s debut season in the Big 12. Iowa State started the season in a rich vein of form, winning their opening seven games, but it’s the defacto “home team” in the Big 12 Championship Game who is the real form team in this game.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Arizona State has won its last five games to secure a berth in the title game, and although the Cyclones opened the week as a marginal favorite, the oddsmakers have swung toward the Sun Devils as the week has progressed. They’re now just a one-point favorite, and are 10-2 against the spread for the 2024 college football season.
Iowa State is 2-4 ATS in their last six.
Iowa State’s Winning Probability
Iowa State ended the regular season 10-2, winning double-digit regular season games for the first time in its history. It heads to its first Big 12 Championship since 2020 as slight underdogs with the CFN FPM, with a 49.2% chance of victory. If the Cyclones were to win, it would be their first championship since 1912.
- at Arizona State: 49.2%
Arizona State’s Winning Probability
Arizona State finds themselves in the Big 12 title game in their first season in the conference after winning the Territorial Cup. They have hit 10 regular season wins for the first time in a decade and are slim favorites to win their first championship since 2007. The CFN FPM gives the Sun Devils a 50.8% chance of winning in AT&T Stadium on Saturday.
- vs. Iowa State: 50.8%
Prediction for Iowa State vs. Arizona State
The Big 12 Championship is shaping up to be a tightly contested battle, with early betting lines unable to separate the two teams.
Statistically, the matchup is just as close. Both teams are averaging an identical 32.1 points per game, but there are specific areas within the numbers that could tilt the balance.
MORE: 2024 College Football Power Rankings
For Arizona State to secure the title, quarterback Sam Leavitt must continue his late-season surge. The Michigan State transfer has thrown for 2,440 yards, 21 touchdowns, and just five interceptions this year.
His connection with wide receiver Jordyn Tyson has been electric, as Tyson has racked up over 1,100 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns, emerging as one of the nation’s elite pass-catchers. Tyson’s inability to play in this one could be a massive factor.
While Leavitt and Tyson have garnered much of the spotlight, running back Cam Skattebo has been the cornerstone of Arizona State’s offense. The star rusher has powered his way to 1,398 yards and 17 touchdowns on the ground in 2024.
Head coach Kenny Dillingham and his staff would do well to lean on Skattebo again this Saturday. Iowa State’s defense has struggled against the run, allowing an average of 173.6 rushing yards per game—a vulnerability the Sun Devils will undoubtedly aim to exploit.
On the other side, Iowa State’s hopes for a championship rely on maximizing the production of their dynamic receiving duo, Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. Both wideouts have surpassed 1,000 receiving yards this season, making them pivotal targets for quarterback Rocco Becht.
Becht has been a steady presence under center, throwing for 3,021 yards, 20 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. His ability to spread the ball around will be critical as the Cyclones look to take advantage of an Arizona State secondary that surrenders an average of 215.5 passing yards per game.
This game is expected to go down to the wire. Arizona State has proven its mettle in clutch moments, boasting a 6-1 record in one-score games this season. If the Sun Devils can summon that same resilience, they may once again deliver under pressure on Saturday afternoon.
Prediction: Arizona State 27, Iowa State 24
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