The Florida Gators roll into Tallahassee riding a two-game winning streak, ready to pile on the misery for a Florida State Seminoles squad that’s fallen far short of its preseason expectations.
Who takes the in-state showdown? Here’s the latest odds, key info, and our Florida vs. Florida State prediction.
Florida vs. Florida State Betting Preview
All Kansas vs. Baylor odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Saturday, Nov. 30, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Florida -19 - Spread
Florida -17 - Moneyline
Florida -750, Florida State +525 - Over/Under
45.5 points - Game time
7 p.m. ET - Location
Doak Campbell Stadium | Tallahassee, FL - Predicted Weather at Kick
48 degrees, clear, 6 mph winds - How to Watch
ESPN 2
The stage is set for Florida to extend their head-to-head record over Florida State, with the Gators leading the all-time series 37-28-2. It is difficult to understate just how strong of a favorite Billy Napier’s team is in this contest. -17 points on the road in a night game in an in-state rival game is a rare occurrence. The CFN FPM has the Gators as even stronger favorites at -19.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
While Florida State has shown nothing to think they can cover, this is a rivalry game, and as stated, that is a lot of points, especially when the over/under is set at 46. Seminoles’ head coach Mike Norvell won his last two games against the Gators — by nine points in 2023 and seven in 2022 — but this is a very different Florida State team.
Meanwhile, Florida has scored 27 and 24 points, respectively, against the LSU Tigers and Ole Miss Rebels to win tight contests in the last two weeks.
Florida’s Winning Probability
No one would have believed that Florida would be such a heavy favorite to win on the road in a rivalry game in Tallahassee at the beginning of the season. The CFN FPM gives Florida a 92.3% chance of being victorious in Doak Cambell Stadium on Saturday night and resigning their in-state rival to further misery.
- at Florida State: 92.3%
Florida State’s Winning Probability
A wretched season could be about to get even worse. The CFN FPM gives the Seminoles a 7.7% chance of winning at home in a night game against the Gators—a long way from the lofty expectations of a year ago.
- vs. Florida: 7.7%
Prediction for Florida vs. Florida State
Florida at Florida State might lack the national spotlight both programs aspire to, but make no mistake—this game still matters. The in-state rivals have a chance to land a blow on a familiar foe and send their fans home happy while adding to the misery of the opposing fanbase.
These two teams have been on very different trajectories this season.
MORE: 2024 College Football Power Rankings
Florida State is limping toward the finish line, eager to put this season behind them. Meanwhile, the Gators have hit their stride, winning back-to-back games against LSU and Ole Miss to secure bowl eligibility. Freshman QB DJ Lagway has shown flashes of elite talent, giving fans plenty of hope for the future.
This game is a prime opportunity for the Florida offense to take control. Lagway has the tools to pick apart a Seminoles’ defense that’s been abysmal at creating takeaways.
The Gators’ signal-caller will look to attack downfield, and nothing we’ve seen from Mike Norvell’s squad suggests they can capitalize on mistakes. Florida State is averaging just 0.2 interceptions per game in 2024.
Offensively, the Seminoles have struggled even more. With only 11 passing touchdowns on the year—three of which came against Charleston Southern in Week 13—they lack the firepower to keep pace.
Florida State’s best hope lies with their defensive line. If they can pressure the freshman QB and contain Florida’s ground game, they might have a shot to stay in it late. But the odds are stacked against them.
Prediction: Florida 33, Florida State 14
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