Weekday Conference USA is back! The conference’s midweek residency begins in earnest this week, and they’re wheeling out the champions to open the show on Tuesday night. The Liberty Flames haven’t lost a regular season game since 2022, but could the FIU Panthers put up some resistance under the national spotlight?
Our FIU vs. Liberty prediction contains the answers, the latest betting odds, and the Panthers and Flames’ winning probabilities for the rest of the 2024 college football campaign.
FIU vs. Liberty Betting Preview
All FIU vs. Liberty odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Oct. 7, 2024.
- CFN FPM Spread
Liberty -14 - Spread
Liberty -19 - Moneyline
Liberty -1000, FIU +650 - Over/Under
54 points - Game time
7 p.m. ET - Location
Williams Stadium | Lynchburg, VA - Predicted Weather at Kick
42.8 degrees, clear, 2.5 mph winds - How to Watch
CBS Sports Network
Not only are Jamey Chadwell’s Liberty undefeated this season but they’ve also yet to taste defeat against their Tuesday night opponents. There have been two previous encounters between the schools, with the Flames torching the Panthers a year ago in a particularly one-sided matchup. That said, their 2020 encounter, the only previous one in Lynchburg, was a much tighter affair. Which will be replicated on Tuesday night?
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Liberty is a significant favorite (both moneyline and spread), but as you can see above, the CFN Football Playoff Meter (FPM) projects a tighter spread line than the oddsmakers right now. The Flames have been poor against the spread this year, going 1-3 and never covering as a double-digit favorite. FIU, on the other hand, is 3-1 covering the spread as an underdog. They also covered as a double-digit ‘dog to open the season against Indiana.
FIU’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, FIU has a 14.9% chance of winning this CUSA clash. After opening the season against a high-flying Indiana Hoosiers side, Liberty provides the Panthers’ most difficult test. They have already overcome the underdog status once this season, comfortably beating Central Michigan in Week 2.
Here is how FIU’s remaining schedule looks in terms of winning probability:
- at Liberty: 14.9%
- at UTEP: 51.2%
- vs. Sam Houston: 38.9%
- vs. New Mexico State: 52.8%
- at Jacksonville State: 39.4%
- at Kennesaw State: 75.1%
- vs. Middle Tennessee: 57.4%
If those winning percentages were to hold true, FIU would end the season with a 6-6 record, earning a bowl season berth for the first time since 2019. However, within those projections, they have two close games (UTEP and New Mexico State) that turn the tide of triumph into despair of defeat with a reversal of results.
Liberty’s Winning Probability
Things are a lot more favorable for the Flames. According to the CFN FPM, Liberty has an 85.1% chance of beating FIU in one of the easier games on their schedule. The reigning CUSA champions have been favored in every game since the start of the season and haven’t succumbed to an upset so far.
Here are Liberty’s remaining winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. FIU: 85.1%
- at Kennesaw State: 93.4%
- vs. Jacksonville State: 79.9%
- at Middle Tennessee: 82.6%
- at UMass: 87.2%
- vs. Western Kentucky: 65.7%
- at Sam Houston: 73%
Liberty is projected to run the table and go undefeated for a second successive season. The CFN FPM gives the Flames a 58.6% chance of winning the conference title again, the highest of any program following Week 6 of the 2024 college football campaign. However, their canceled game against Appalachian State looms large for their College Football Playoff chances, currently set at 35.3%.
Prediction for FIU vs. Liberty
After shaking off an upset win against FCS Monmouth with a conference win over Louisiana Tech, FIU travels to Lynchburg looking to cause its own shock. Meanwhile, the Flames are fresh off a 17-day wait for action following the Hurricane Helene-enforced cancellation of their game against Appalachian State and are desperate to get back to what they’ve done best in recent years: winning football games.
Can the Panthers pull off an upset on Tuesday night, or will the Flames prove too hot to handle? Who has the upper hand, and where will the critical battles unfold?
FIU is a significant underdog coming into the game, but they have the passing defense to neutralize Liberty’s most dangerous weapon. Kaidon Salter might not be enjoying the same level of production as last year, but he remains the best passer in CUSA and one of the top dual-threat quarterbacks in the nation. He also leads the conference in adjusted yards per attempt (10.1) and yards per completion (14.4) through Week 6.
However, the Panthers’ defense leads CUSA in yards per attempt allowed to opposition quarterbacks (6.1), has given up just one passing touchdown per game, and has the third-most interceptions in the conference. Six different players have snagged a pick this year, and that doesn’t include highly-rated cornerback Hezekiah Masses. Mike MacIntyre’s defense has the potential to frustrate Salter and the Flames on Tuesday night.
That said, there’s a reason that Liberty ranks second in the conference for scoring offense after averaging 33.5 points per game. They don’t have to rely on Salter’s arm to win games, and as we saw last season, the run game often carries the offense. Chadwell’s team is actually averaging fewer carries per game so far in 2024, but don’t sleep on Billy Lucas and Quinton Cooley being a significant factor in this matchup.
Can FIU keep pace with that level of scoring on Tuesday night? The Panthers have scored more points per game than last year, and exciting young quarterback Keyone Jenkins leads CUSA in passing touchdowns. Eric Rivers and Dean Patterson have proved a dangerous wide receiver duo, snagging five scores between them. However, the Panthers struggled to just 17 points against Louisiana Tech, and Liberty’s defense is much better than the Bulldogs. Expect TJ Bush to be a difference-maker in a Flames win.
Prediction: FIU 21, Liberty 31
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