With the expansion of the College Football Playoff to 12 teams and the (for now) collapse of the Pac-12, at least one Group of Five team is guaranteed a place in college football’s postseason tournament.
According to the latest College Football Network Football Playoff Meter, the Army Black Knights are in pole position to take that place and compete for the 2024 national championship after an enthralling Week 6 slate of games.
College Football Playoff Predictions: Group of Five Race to the Postseason
The CFN Football Playoff Meter (FPM) is a proprietary metric that predicts the outcomes of the rest of the season. It can be used to project win-loss records and the percentage chance of any of the 134 FBS teams winning the rest of their games, winning their conference, reaching the College Football Playoff, and ultimately, the chance of winning the 2024 national championship.
- Army Black Knights – 36.8%
- Liberty Flames – 35.3%
- James Madison Dukes – 34.7%
- Boise State Broncos – 30.9%
- UNLV Rebels – 20.9%
- Memphis Tigers – 14.1%
- Toledo Rockets – 12.7%
- Navy Midshipmen – 11.8%
- Texas State Bobcats – 11.4%
- Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns – 10.5%
Army Black Knights – 36.8%
In recent years, the American Athletic Conference has been at the forefront of the Group of Five as far as New Year’s Six bowls are concerned, and an undefeated conference champion likely has the inside track to the College Football Playoff under the new format. Right now, there are just two undefeated teams in the AAC, and they’re both service academies.
With the easier strength of schedule, Army has the better opportunity to run the conference table, setting up a potential Army-Navy Game double-header to end the year. Jeff Monken’s team has been ruthless this season, leading the conference in rushing offense (361.2 yards per game), total defense (260.2 yards per game), and scoring defense (9.8 points per game).
Liberty Flames – 35.3%
If the 12-team format had existed last season, the Liberty Flames would have been the Group of Five representative after going undefeated and winning the CUSA title before coming unstuck against Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl. That performance shouldn’t factor into consideration around Jamey Chadwell’s team when making 2024-2025 College Football Playoff predictions.
The Flames actually led our Group of Five predictions for the College Football Playoff earlier in the year. Through no fault of their own, however, they had the hardest game on their schedule taken away from them (Appalachian State), which could impact their standing in the eyes of the committee. The Flames are reportedly trying to find a replacement opponent. In the meantime, they return to action on Tuesday against the FIU Panthers.
James Madison Dukes – 34.7%
While everyone was wondering what impact Vanderbilt beating Alabama might have on the postseason race, the game that moved the needle most for the Group of Five College Football Playoff predictions was playing out in Monroe, Louisiana. The James Madison Dukes had an over 70% chance of being in the final 12 teams last week but saw their possibilities plunge thanks to one of the week’s biggest upsets.
Bob Chesney’s team still has a 39.8% chance of winning the Sun Belt, which powers their 34.7% chance of reaching the College Football Playoff. However, with a defeat on their resume and one of the weakest strength of schedules in the nation likely to be a factor when the playoff committee starts ranking teams at the end of the month, there is now some element of the future being out of their hands.
Boise State Broncos – 30.9%
The Mountain West is one of the most intriguing conferences to watch in the race for the College Football Playoff. The UNLV Rebels, with two Power Four wins on their resume, had looked like being the frontrunner ahead of Week 6, but a defeat in overtime to Syracuse on Friday night swings the pendulum back toward perennial Mountain West powerhouse, Boise State.
The Broncos, led by Heisman Trophy frontrunner Ashton Jeanty, made light work of the Utah State Aggies on Saturday night. While they lack the Power Four wins that UNLV boasts, their only defeat has come against highly-rated Oregon (currently ranked seventh in the AP Poll). They also comfortably beat former Power Five Washington State. The Oct. 25 matchup with UNLV in Week 5 is one of the most pivotal games of the season.
UNLV Rebels – 20.9%
The loss to Syracuse hurts for UNLV in a multitude of ways. Firstly, the nature of the defeat, an overtime loss featuring several questionable calls. Secondly, their undefeated record fell by the wayside. Thirdly, the opportunity to add another Power Four win was well within the Rebels’s grasp, dramatically changing the face of their resume. Finally, their percentage chances in our Group of Five College Football Playoff predictions plummeted.
UNLV now has a 20.9% chance of reaching the postseason tournament. For what it’s worth, I still believe they’re the most complete team at the level. They have one of the top receivers in the nation in Ricky White III and defensive playmakers that could comfortably start at the Power Four level. They’ll need every single one of them to perform to their ability to withstand the Jeanty train on Oct. 25.
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