College basketball has an excellent system for determining who belongs in its 64-team bracket. The selection process for March Madness is no minor undertaking, and between the NET, KenPom, and myriad advanced metrics, there is no shortage of information being used to evaluate the teams most deserving of a postseason berth.
However, college football does not quite have the same process. Today, we’ll borrow a page out of NCAA basketball’s book to evaluate the the College Football Rankings and its 12-team playoff contenders.
How Can We Analyze Playoff-Worthy Schedules Using CFN’s FPM?
The College Football Playoff Selection Committee undoubtedly uses a litany of information, but the feedback often seems more vague and is typically met with public criticism, especially when they reference the dreaded “eye test.”
Using College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter as a data point, how do the remaining playoff contenders’ résumés stack up comparatively? Using a methodology similar to that of the NET quadrant system, let’s analyze the strengths of these teams’ schedules.
Below we have analyzed the 19 teams that currently boast higher than a 1% chance of making the College Football Playoffs, according to CFN’s FPM. With just 12 teams able to make it in, the answer to “Who deserves it?” may be answered for us on championship weekend.
However, until then, let’s look at the current résumés the most likely CFP contenders have put together throughout the season.
Similar to the NET quadrant system, we are evaluating teams’ wins and losses based on both the game’s location and the opponent’s FPM rating, No. 1 through No. 134, using a sliding scale explained below:
- Quadrant 1: Home 1-15, Neutral 1-20, Away 1-30
- Quadrant 2: Home 16-30, Neutral 21-40, Away 31-50
- Quadrant 3: Home 31-60, Neutral 41-80, Away 51-90
- Quadrant 4: Home 61-134, Neutral 81-134, Away 91-134
Essentially, it provides a better look at the strength of different teams’ schedules by analyzing how often they played against the toughest competition and how they fared against it.
In college basketball, the key points of interest are how many Quad 1 and 2 wins teams can earn throughout a season while avoiding as many Quad 3 and 4 losses. For our intents and purposes, we’ll mostly be analyzing the former as the shorter season length and general disparity in talent makes the latter less relevant … for most contending programs.
Which Playoff Contenders Have the Most Deserving Résumés?
The order of this list is descending from the lowest percent chance of making the College Football Playoff to the highest, according to CFN’s Football Playoff Meter. For any matchups with FCS programs, they will be categorized as Quad 4 contests.
Army Black Knights
- CFN FPM: 14.5 (47th)
- FPM Playoff Chances: 9.23% (19th)
- FPM Conference Championship Odds: Army -1 (vs. Tulane Green Wave)
- Quad 1 Record: 0-1
- Quad 2 Record: 0-0
- Quad 3 Record: 0-0
- Quad 4 Record: 10-0
Frankly, sometimes all you can do is face the team in front of you — but let’s call a spade a spade.
The 10-1 Army Black Knights had an unthreatening schedule when you look back at their season. While some of Army’s opponents pose a higher threat than the FPM may indicate, six of their 11 opponents ranked in the bottom 20 in CFN FPM.
The Black Knights are still set to face off against Tulane (Quad 3, home) for the Conference USA title and have another matchup with the Navy Midshipmen (Quad 4, neutral) after that on Dec. 14. Both rank inside the top 35 in adjusted EPA/play, but Army’s 49-14 drubbing in South Bend was ultimately their undoing in the Group of Five race.
BYU Cougars
- CFN FPM: 20.5 (24th)
- FPM Playoff Chances: 13.26% (18th)
- FPM Conference Championship Odds: N/A
- Quad 1 Record: 2-1
- Quad 2 Record: 1-0
- Quad 3 Record: 2-1
- Quad 4 Record: 5-0
After losing out on the Big 12’s Great Tiebreaker War of 2024, the BYU Cougars are out of luck in terms of a conference title berth. However, the Cardiac Cougars put up an impressive 10-2 campaign before losing two straight ahead of a too-little-too-late season-finale win.
September road wins against the SMU Mustangs and Baylor Bears mark the strongest wins of the season (Quad 1), while late-season losses at home against the Kansas Jayhawks (Quad 3) and on the road with the Arizona State Sun Devils (Quad 1) marred a campaign that could have been among the best.
The College Football Playoffs seem like a stretch, but the Cougars should get an exciting postseason opportunity and have proven they can make magic against any opponent.
Miami Hurricanes
- CFN FPM: 23.0 (15th)
- FPM Playoff Chances: 14.64% (17th)
- FPM Conference Championship Odds: XX
- Quad 1 Record: 2-1
- Quad 2 Record: 0-1
- Quad 3 Record: 4-0
- Quad 4 Record: 4-0
The Miami Hurricanes are on the outside looking in on the ACC championship after seemingly being in control all season. Cam Ward’s potentially Heisman-finalist-worthy season may end earlier than expected with less than one-fifth of a chance at advancing, per the FPM.
An Aug. 31 smackdown of the Florida Gators (Quad 1, away) has aged like fine wine after initial turmoil in The Swamp, and a barnburner victory over the Louisville Cardinals (Quad 1, away) in October was one to remember.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
However, Miami dropping two of its last three outings ultimately felt like consecutive gut punches for a season that could have been so much more.
Miami finished inside the top five in adjusted EPA/play, but they won two of their four hardest games, losing to the upset-minded Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (Quad 1, away) and Syracuse Orange (Quad 2, away). If the ‘Canes don’t get the chaos they need on championship weekend, we may have seen the last of an electric campaign from Ward and Co.
South Carolina Gamecocks
- CFN FPM: 27.3 (9th)
- FPM Playoff Chances: 20.32% (16th)
- FPM Conference Championship Odds: N/A
- Quad 1 Record: 2-2
- Quad 2 Record: 3-1
- Quad 3 Record: 1-0
- Quad 4 Record: 3-0
What a season for the real USC (they earned it this year).
The South Carolina Gamecocks survived a gauntlet schedule, pulling off ranked road wins at Kyle Field and Death Valley (the ACC one). Unfortunately, they also fell short at home against the LSU Tigers and Ole Miss Rebels (a 24-point near-shutout).
The Gamecocks make one thing clear: they can compete with the best of them, and they were forged by fire. With a top-20 defense in adjusted EPA/play (17th), points allowed per game (14th), total sacks (fifth), and forced fumbles (t-third), this is a team you want to tread lightly against. There’s a reason they’re the No. 9 team in CFN’s FPM.
If any three-loss team deserves to make it, it might be the Gamecocks. Put them in the playoffs, you cowards!
Alabama Crimson Tide
- CFN FPM: 27.0 (10th)
- FPM Playoff Chances: 24.3% (15th)
- FPM Conference Championship Odds: N/A
- Quad 1 Record: 3-1
- Quad 2 Record: 2-2
- Quad 3 Record: 1-0
- Quad 4 Record: 3-0
Speaking of three-loss teams — the Alabama Crimson Tide end Year 1 of the Kalen DeBoer era on the outside looking in of the SEC championship game and potentially the College Football Playoff, though it feels like the Tide is just a domino or two away from turning.
Alabama went undefeated at home (7-0), but a 2-3 road record tainted the first season after the legendary Nick Saban’s retirement. The Tide went into Madison, Wisc., and Baton Rouge, La., to secure victories, but the state of Tennessee (Nashville and Knoxville) was unkind, as was a trip to Oklahoma.
If Alabama can sneak into the College Football Playoffs, it will have to prove itself on the road in the first round … something to think about.
Clemson Tigers
- CFN FPM: 22.8 (18th)
- FPM Playoff Chances: 46.20% (14th)
- FPM Conference Championship Odds: Clemson +2 (vs. SMU Mustangs)
- Quad 1 Record: 0-2
- Quad 2 Record: 1-1
- Quad 3 Record: 4-0
- Quad 4 Record: 4-0
Finally — a path that’s simple. If you’re the Clemson Tigers, you win against SMU (Quad 1, neutral) and you’re in. It’s that simple!
After Clemson’s season started off unevenly with a 34-3 decimation by the Georgia Bulldogs, the Tigers found their footing, especially offensively. However, that six-game winning streak (48.5 PPG) came exclusively against Quad 3 and 4 opponents
Since then, Clemson has dropped two of its final five, averaging 20.75 points per game against FBS opponents over that stretch. The program’s only Quad 1 or 2 win this year was a 24-point day on the road against the Virginia Tech Hokies.
Time to prove your worth, Tigers.
UNLV Rebels
- CFN FPM: 18.3 (32nd)
- FPM Playoff Chances: 49.2% (t-12th)
- FPM Conference Championship Odds: UNLV +1 (vs. Boise State Broncos)
- Quad 1 Record: 0-0
- Quad 2 Record: 1-1
- Quad 3 Record: 2-1
- Quad 4 Record: 7-0
The Mountain West is the gift that keeps on giving as the people get the rematch they deserve between the UNLV Rebels and the Boise State Broncos.
For both teams, this is THE matchup. Not only is it likely a win-and-in as the Group of Five representative thanks to Tulane’s Week 14 fumble, but it’s the toughest matchup the Rebels have faced all season, given the circumstances. However, they boast a pair of Big 12 road wins (at the Houston Cougars and at Kansas).
Did Barry Odom figure it out after the Rebls’ five-point loss in October? The margins last time were thin (UNLV had 27 fewer total yards despite averaging 0.9 more yards per play than Boise State), and this one might be no different.
Iowa State Cyclones
- CFN FPM: 22.0 (19th)
- FPM Playoff Chances: 49.2% (t-12th)
- FPM Conference Championship Odds: Iowa State +1 (vs. Arizona State Sun Devils)
- Quad 1 Record: 0-0
- Quad 2 Record: 4-1
- Quad 3 Record: 2-1
- Quad 4 Record: 4-0
Checking in with just under a 50/50 shot of making the College Football Playoff, Iowa State might need to win to get in given how unfavorably the CFP rankings have treated the Big 12’s best teams all season (Iowa State was 18th heading into Week 14, just behind Arizona State, 16th).
Much like the rest of the Big 12, a strong start to the Cyclones’ season (7-0 with multiple Quad 2 wins: West Virginia Mountaineers, Baylor, and Iowa Hawkeyes) turned into a bumpy stretch (losses to Kansas and the Texas Tech Red Raiders) before smoothing out.
Ultimately, Iowa State faced zero Quad 1 opponents, but it will get its first shot with Arizona State in a neutral-site bout at AT&T Stadium in Arlington.
Boise State Broncos
- CFN FPM: 19.0 (27th)
- FPM Playoff Chances: 50.8% (t-10th)
- FPM Conference Championship Odds: Boise State -1 (vs. UNLV Rebels)
- Quad 1 Record: 0-1
- Quad 2 Record: 1-0
- Quad 3 Record: 1-0
- Quad 4 Record: 9-0
The Boise State Broncos are the first team on this list to have higher than a 50% chance of making the College Football Playoffs, according to the FPM. At 27th, the Broncos are the highest-ranked Group of Five school by CFN’s metric and control their own destiny to make the playoffs, potentially even with a first-round bye.
Standing in the way, though, is a UNLV team that gave Boise State one of its toughest matchups of the year in Mountain West competition. It’s never easy to beat the same team twice in one season.
Heisman hopeful Ashton Jeanty was “bottled up” in the last matchup to “just” 128 yards and one score on a “paltry” 3.9 yards-per-carry average. Boise State pulled off the win at Allegiant Stadium thanks to ball control (+8:04 possession differential), turnover margin (+1), and discipline (+29 penalty-yardage differential and +5.31 penalty EPA differential).
It might be Jeanty or Bust again in Boise, Idaho.
Arizona State Sun Devils
- CFN FPM: 22.8 (17th)
- FPM Playoff Chances: 50.8% (t-10th)
- FPM Conference Championship Odds: Arizona State -1 (vs. Iowa State Cyclones)
- Quad 1 Record: 1-0
- Quad 2 Record: 1-1
- Quad 3 Record: 3-1
- Quad 4 Record: 5-0
It was a slow start for the Sun Devils after eight of their first nine games came against Quad 3 and 4 opponents (the exception being a road loss against Texas Tech, Quad 2). However, the wait was well worth it.
Arizona State punctuated its season with a road win against the Kansas State Wildcats (Quad 1) and a home win over BYU (Quad 2) before a statement win over the in-state rival Arizona Wildcats, 49-7.
While the overall résumé is nothing special (nine games against Quad 3 and 4 competition), the vibes in Tempe, Ariz., must be immaculate, as the desert is heating up at the right time ahead of a conference title game against Iowa State (Quad 1, neutral) and postseason play on the horizon.
SMU Mustangs
- CFN FPM: 25.0 (12th)
- FPM Playoff Chances: 53.8% (9th)
- FPM Conference Championship Odds: SMU -2 (vs. Clemson Tigers)
- Quad 1 Record: 1-0
- Quad 2 Record: 2-1
- Quad 3 Record: 4-0
- Quad 4 Record: 4-0
What more could you want from SMU in its first year in the ACC? It just got its job done.
While admittedly, the Mustangs got away with facing just one of the top six finishers in the ACC (a road win against the Louisville Cardinals, Quad 1), they took care of what was in front of them and have not lost since Sept. 6.
Facing off against a hungry but slowing Clemson team in the conference title game, SMU has the chance to claim its first ACC championship; however, by game day, the Mustangs will have faced just one Quad 1 or 2 opponent in the last two months, a one-point overtime win over the 9-3 Duke Blue Devils on Oct. 26.
Will they be rusty, or are they ready to finally be challenged again (+21.25 average point differential over the last four games)?
Georgia Bulldogs
- CFN FPM: 30.8 (4th)
- FPM Playoff Chances: 92.14% (8th)
- FPM Conference Championship Odds: Georgia +2 (vs. Texas Longhorns)
- Quad 1 Record: 4-2
- Quad 2 Record: 1-0
- Quad 3 Record: 2-0
- Quad 4 Record: 3-0
It’s blue blood time.
The 34-3 trouncing of the Clemson Tigers (Quad 1, neutral) felt like a season-opening statement that Georgia was here to stay — while they certainly haven’t left, it does not appear as though the Bulldogs are the wrecking ball we’ve become accustomed to in recent seasons.
Georgia may have had one of the toughest schedules in the country, losing against Alabama and Ole Miss on the road while defeating Texas at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Florida at a neutral site, and Tennessee at home — all Quad 1 opponents. Even their rivalry-week opponents marked a Quad 2 win, as the giant-slaying Yellow Jackets fell short in eight overtimes.
The key to watch out for is Carson Beck’s performance; after a six-game stretch (between the Alabama loss and the Ole Miss loss) where he had 12 interceptions to 10 touchdown passes, he now has 11 touchdowns with no picks in his last three outings.
The Bulldogs need his streak to continue — while they’re likely a shoo-in for the CFP, an SEC title game loss may cost Georgia home-field advantage.
Ohio State Buckeyes
- CFN FPM: 32.5 (3rd)
- FPM Playoff Chances: 95.75% (7th)
- FPM Conference Championship Odds: N/A
- Quad 1 Record: 2-1
- Quad 2 Record: 0-1
- Quad 3 Record: 3-0
- Quad 4 Record: 5-0
Four straight losses in The Game stings, but now the Ohio State Buckeyes are on the outside looking in at the Big Ten Football Championship Game. They’re safe to remain in the CFP hunt, but the Buckeyes lose out on a chance at a first-round bye and revenge against the Oregon Ducks — at least for now.
Ohio State has gotten it done all season, ranking third in CFN’s FPM (32.5), first in yards allowed per game (241.1), and tied for 16th in points per game (35.5) while ranking inside the top five in both offensive and defensive adjusted EPA per play, the only team to boast this honor.
The Buckeyes have the roster. The Buckeyes have the numbers. The Buckeyes have the eye test. Yet they are 2-2 in their four biggest games.
At some point, you have two options left: put it together or figure out the common denominator.
Penn State Nittany Lions
- CFN FPM: 28.8 (6th)
- FPM Playoff Chances: 98.78% (6th)
- FPM Conference Championship Odds: Penn State +5 (vs. Oregon Ducks)
- Quad 1 Record: 0-1
- Quad 2 Record: 5-0
- Quad 3 Record: 2-0
- Quad 4 Record: 4-0
Can they avoid the same old song and dance? If there was ever a year, it’s this one.
The offense is reliable (eighth in adjusted EPA per play and second in success rate), the defense is stout (third in adjusted EPA per play and ninth in success rate), and the wins are finally there (11-1 and the first title game appearance since 2016).
However, the Penn State Nittany Lions need to prove it against the Oregon Ducks, the top-ranked team in the nation. Eleven wins and zero losses across all opponents in Quads 2-4 — it’s time for Penn State to prove it can hang with the big dogs after Ohio State paced the Nittany Lions in early November (outgained by 128 yards).
Indiana Hoosiers
- CFN FPM: 27.8 (8th)
- FPM Playoff Chances: 99.89% (5th)
- FPM Conference Championship Odds: N/A
- Quad 1 Record: 0-1
- Quad 2 Record: 1-0
- Quad 3 Record: 4-0
- Quad 4 Record: 6-0
The FPM looks upon the Indiana Hoosiers very favorably in terms of playoff odds, but I’m not sure how safe their spot is. Without a conference championship to compete for, Indiana may be at the mercy of the chaotic whims of the football gods.
Part of why is their schedule, which was very favorable for the Hoosiers. They faced just two Quad 1 or 2 opponents, a road loss to Ohio State and a home win over Michigan. Indiana’s next-best win was a home win over the Nebraska Cornhuskers (Quad 3), and their best road win was over Michigan State (Quad 3).
However, the Hoosiers have put together quite the statistical résumé that the CFP Selection Committee should definitely consider: eighth in FPM, inside the top 10 in adjusted EPA/play on both offense (ninth) and defense (sixth), second in scoring (43.3 PPG), fourth in turnover margin (+15), and seventh in points allowed per game (14.67 PPG).
Indiana has an average scoring margin of +28.63.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- CFN FPM: 28.5 (7th)
- FPM Playoff Chances: 100% (t-1st)
- FPM Conference Championship Odds: N/A
- Quad 1 Record: 2-0
- Quad 2 Record: 2-0
- Quad 3 Record: 3-0
- Quad 4 Record: 4-1
Let’s address the Huskie-shaped elephant in the room — the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are the only team on this list with a Quad 4 loss. It undoubtedly stained their season, but they should have earned your trust back since then.
With road wins against Texas A&M (Quad 1), Georgia Tech (Quad 1), and USC (Quad 2) and a home win over Louisville (Quad 2), they have multiple high-quadrant wins to flaunt. While two-thirds of their schedule was fodder and featured one massive fumble, the loss against the Northern Illinois Huskies (No. 91 in FPM) is behind this program.
Their season is over and they’re all but in the final bracket. Can Marcus Freeman’s squad prove to the public what past Notre Dame units have failed to do?
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Interesting schedule quirk: The Georgia Tech game was in Atlanta at Mercedes-Benz Stadium and was listed as an away game for Notre Dame despite not being the Yellow Jackets’ traditional home stadium; meanwhile, Navy (MetLife Stadium) and Army (Yankee Stadium) were listed understandably as neutral-site games.
Had the game in Atlanta been called a neutral site, it would have demoted the win over Tech to Quad 2, while Army and Navy’s wins would been promoted to Quad 2 and Quad 3 wins, respectively, if deemed an away game. Food for thought.
Tennessee Volunteers
- CFN FPM: 29.0 (5th)
- FPM Playoff Chances: 100% (t-1st)
- FPM Conference Championship Odds: N/A
- Quad 1 Record: 2-1
- Quad 2 Record: 2-1
- Quad 3 Record: 2-0
- Quad 4 Record: 4-0
The Volunteers dropped ones on the road against the Arkansas Razorbacks (Quad 2) and Georgia (Quad 1) but cleared through the rest of their schedule, picking up four high-quadrant wins in the process.
While they lost out on the tiebreakers to advance to the SEC championship, have they proven themselves as contenders this season? It’s hard to say, but the numbers like this new-look Josh Heupel squad, a defensive stalwart (fifth in adjusted EPA/play and points allowed per game) that attacks teams on the ground offensively (inside the top 10 in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns).
Texas Longhorns
- CFN FPM: 32.8 (2nd)
- FPM Playoff Chances: 100% (t-1st)
- FPM Conference Championship Odds: Texas -2 (vs. Georgia Bulldogs)
- Quad 1 Record: 3-1
- Quad 2 Record: 3-0
- Quad 3 Record: 1-0
- Quad 4 Record: 4-0
Has Texas played anyone? The answer is — well — kind of, actually. By our numbers, they have actually picked up six wins that rank inside the top quadrants.
While Texas undoubtedly avoided the toughest that the SEC had to offer (faced six of the seven lowest teams in the SEC’s standings), they still put together multiple inspiring wins, topped off with a rivalry-week win over Texas A&M at Kyle Field where the defense allowed zero points from the Aggies’ offense.
A marquee rematch with Georgia is up next. Can the Longhorns get back at the Bulldogs for their lone blemish this season, or will it be the same result but this time closer to Georgia’s home turf?
Oregon Ducks
- CFN FPM: 33.5 (1st)
- FPM Playoff Chances: 100% (t-1st)
- FPM Conference Championship Odds: Oregon -5 (vs. Penn State Nittany Lions)
- Quad 1 Record: 2-0
- Quad 2 Record: 3-0
- Quad 3 Record: 4-0
- Quad 4 Record: 3-0
The last undefeated team in the country has a relatively even-spread schedule. Their best win is undoubtedly against Ohio State, the third-ranked team in the nation according to FPM, but they sneakily faced most of their toughest tests in Eugene.
The Ducks’ best road win was over Michigan in Ann Arbor, but three of their five road bouts came against Quad 3-4 competition. Ultimately, that no longer matters, though, as they won’t have to play any more true road games.
If they can get the job done against Penn State in Indianapolis, there will be nothing left but neutral sites. If they slip up, they’ll get the home-field advantage in the first round without a doubt.
It might be Dan Lanning’s year.
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