The Conference USA Championship Game is going to come down to a three-team battle for second place after the results of the action from Week 13. Despite Jacksonville State clinching their spot in the championship game, it’s now a race to see who will face off against the Gamecocks between Sam Houston, Liberty, and Western Kentucky.
CUSA Championship Game Odds
The Vegas lines will be out soon enough. But we’ll get their latest CUSA Championship odds after Week 13 using the CFN Football Playoff Meter as a guide to see who is most likely to make (and win) the title game.
So, here’s what we did: We locked in Jacksonville State’s win over Sam Houston and Liberty’s victory over Western Kentucky and simulated the rest of the CUSA games 10,000 times to get our odds and probabilities below.
Here’s how each team fared and an explanation of how we got there further down.
CUSA Championship Game Winning Probability
- Jacksonville State: 50.36%
- Western Kentucky: 34.72%
- Sam Houston: 7.75%
- Liberty: 7.17%
The numbers above are how many times each team made the CUSA Championship Game and subsequently won the conference in the process.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The current standings are below, with the team road maps listed further below. Here’s how the table sits right now in the CUSA.
Updated CUSA Standings
- Jacksonville State 7-0 (8-3 overall)
- Western Kentucky 5-2 (7-4)
- Sam Houston 5-2 (8-3)
- Liberty 4-2 (8-2)
- Louisiana Tech 3-4 (4-6)
- FIU 2-4 (3-7)
- Middle Tennessee 2-4 (3-7)
- UTEP 2-5 (2-9)
- New Mexico State 1-5 (2-8)
- Kennesaw State 1-5 (1-9)
CUSA Championship Game Scenarios
With three teams vying for the last spot, it should be noted that this could come out in only one of three ways listed below due to the fact that all four teams play each other in Week 14. Here’s how the schedule is aligned for Week 14:
- Liberty @ Sam Houston
- Jacksonville State @ Western Kentucky
All four contenders (well, three contenders and one who has punched their ticket) will play each other in make-or-break games in Week 14. The Conference USA couldn’t have asked for much more in their final regular season week.
Given the fact that Liberty or Sam Houston will eliminate each other, this can go in only three ways:
Jacksonville State vs. Liberty
Here’s how this scenario can happen:
- Liberty beats Sam Houston
Doing so would give Liberty sole possession of second place and force the Flames to travel to Jacksonville for the CUSA Championship Game. Liberty can also get in via the tiebreaker if Western Kentucky were to win against Jacksonville State.
Jacksonville State vs. Sam Houston
Here’s how this scenario can happen:
- Jacksonville State beats WKU
- Sam Houston beats Liberty
Like above, this gives Jacksonville State the home-team advantage but punches Sam Houston’s ticket to the CUSA Championship Game. Sam Houston could not get in over Western Kentucky if the Hilltoppers were to beat Jacksonville State.
Jacksonville State vs. Western Kentucky
Here’s how this scenario can happen:
- Western Kentucky beats Jacksonville State
- Sam Houston beats Liberty
The CUSA tiebreakers are conference-winning percentages among tied teams, which would be tied between Sam Houston and Western Kentucky in this scenario. Next up in terms of tiebreaking scenarios is head-to-head results between tied teams.
So, setting the tone here, WKU lost to Liberty but beat Sam Houston heads up in 2024. That means if the tiebreaker is between Western Kentucky and Liberty, the Flames would be in. If the tiebreaker is between Sam Houston and Western Kentucky, the Hilltoppers are in.
Therefore, WKU needs to win against Jacksonville State and then have Sam Houston beat Liberty in order to be in the Conference USA Championship Game.
Liberty’s CUSA Championship Road Map
It’s win and they’re in for Liberty. That’s because if they defeat Sam Houston, they clinch the second-place finish by virtue of either sole possession or if Western Kentucky beats Jacksonville State, than by tiebreaker over the Hilltoppers.
By beating WKU earlier in the year, Liberty owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over Western Kentucky and essentially control their own destiny.
- @ Sam Houston: 48.8%
- Theoretical CUSA Championship Game @ Jacksonville State: 35.4%
Sam Houston’s CUSA Championship Road Map
As above states, the Bearkats need to beat Liberty in order to finish in second place. However, unlike Liberty, Sam Houston doesn’t control their own destiny because they would lose the head-to-head tiebreaker against Western Kentucky if the Hilltoppers knock off Jacksonville State.
Since SHSU lost to WKU earlier in the year, if both Western Kentucky and Sam Houston finish tied for second place, it’d be the Hilltoppers that advance to the CUSA Championship Game.
So, it’s win against Liberty and hope for Jacksonville State to beat WKU.
- vs. Liberty: 51.2%
- Theoretical CUSA Championship Game @ Jacksonville State: 34.3%
Western Kentucky’s CUSA Championship Road Map
Okay, so, Western Kentucky would need to beat Jacksonville State in back-to-back weeks to become the Conference USA Champions in 2024, but that isn’t completely in their control.
Yes, beating Jacksonville State in Week 14 is integral to it, and within their control, but in order to get to the CUSA Championship Game, the Hilltoppers have to hope Sam Houston can beat Liberty. That’s because WKU holds the tiebreaker over Sam Houston but not over Liberty.
Beat JSU once, hope Sam Houston beats Liberty, then go beat JSU once more in what would be one of the most improbable (but surely possible) endings to the 2024 season for Tyson Helton and Co.
- vs. Jacksonville State: 52.5%
- Theoretical CUSA Championship Game @ Jacksonville State: 46.6%
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