Whether you thought the first round was a display of everything wrong with the expanded College Football Playoff, if it confirmed your preconceived notions of who should or shouldn’t have been included, or if you’re an actual fan who reveled in the atmosphere of four meaningful December games, we now know the combatants for the quarterfinal stage of the playoff.
Our College Football Playoff predictions use our individual game predictions and the College Network Football Playoff Meter (FPM) to project every remaining game of the 12-team bracket and predict which team will win the ultimate prize.
College Football Playoff Predictions | Quarterfinal
- Fiesta Bowl: No. 3 Boise State Broncos vs. No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions
- Peach Bowl: No. 4 Arizona State Sun Devils vs. No. 5 Texas Longhorns
- Rose Bowl: No. 1 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes
- Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Every game in the first round went according to our previous College Football Playoff predictions, which were exclusively compiled by the CFN FPM. That leaves the eight highest-seeded teams to do battle in the quarterfinals. The sole Group of Five team in the tournament enters the fray, but in our Boise State vs. Penn State prediction, their tournament is short-lived.
Arizona State has been one of the fairytale stories of the 2024 college football season, and in Cam Skattebo, they have one of the toughest, most dangerous players in the nation. While the Sun Devils might present more of a challenge to Texas offensively than the Clemson Tigers did, the Longhorns superior talent in the trenches may prove the difference-maker.
Notre Dame’s win over the Indiana Hoosiers actually looked far less dominant as the weekend progressed, but there’s no denying that the Fighting Irish are one of the form teams in the country right now. Their explosive running game and dangerous defense will leave most teams quaking in their boots over the next few weeks and could overpower a depleted Georgia team.
Oregon and Ohio State already played out the game of the year in the 2024 regular season, so you can excuse everyone for being overly excited about their rematch in the Rose Bowl. Although the oddsmakers make the Buckeyes a favorite, the CFN spread is set at -1 in favor of the Ducks, and Dillon Gabriel and Dan Lanning have the goods to get the job done in Pasadena.
College Football Playoff Predictions | Semifinal
- Orange Bowl: No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 7 Notre Dame
- Cotton Bowl: No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 5 Texas
Oregon has been the number-one-ranked team in the nation since mid-October, and it would be no surprise to see them saunter through to the CFP semifinal. Our College Football Playoff predictions pit them against Texas in the Cotton Bowl, with our metric giving them a 53.4% chance of victory in that matchup. QB Gabriel vs. the Texas defense would be must-watch material.
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Our College Football Playoff predictions pit Penn State against Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl for the other semifinal. Our metric makes the Fighting Irish a marginal favorite, with a 50.6% chance of victory. It’s essentially a pick ’em, the sort of game where James Franklin-led teams fail to thrive. Don’t discount Notre Dame from making a run all the way to Atlanta.
College Football Playoff Predictions | National Championship Game
- No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 7 Notre Dame
In some respects, Oregon and Notre Dame are two similar programs. Led by young, talented coaches Dan Lanning and Marcus Freeman, their success in 2024 has its foundations in the quarterback transfer portal, with Gabriel and Riley Leonard helping elevate the teams to new heights. Stellar trench play, especially defensively, has been the bedrock of their playoff run.
So, who wins the ultimate matchup between these two marquee programs? Our metric gives Oregon a 62.6% chance of beating Notre Dame in Mercedes-Benz Stadium. While the Irish defense will be as difficult to overcome as any he’ll face this season, Gabriel’s experience, ability to avoid pressure, and football intelligence to pick apart a talented secondary are key here.
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