After a crushing 34-3 loss to Georgia in Week 1, the Clemson Tigers have trounced their next four opponents: App State (66-20), NC State (59-35), Stanford (40-14), and Florida State (29-13). At 4-1 and 3-0 in the conference, what are the Tigers’ odds of winning the ACC title match this season?
Projecting Clemson’s Remaining Schedule
Using College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (FPM), we can project Clemson’s remaining schedule. The Tigers will be favored in all seven of their final contests, and if they can remain consistent down the stretch, they’ll not only compete in the ACC championship but earn a College Football Playoff berth for the first time since 2021.
Clemson (-13.5) @ Wake Forest (Projection: W)
While the FPM spread is a touchdown closer than the sportsbooks, the Tigers should still be able to leave Winston-Salem with a relatively easy victory. They’ve outscored opponents 90-0 in the first quarter (they were tied 0-0 with Georgia), while the Demon Deacons have been outscored 33-47.
Clemson has defeated Wake Forest in 15 straight games, but due to the ACC’s expansions to 17 teams, they won’t face off again until 2030, ending a yearly rivalry that’s been played since 1935.
Clemson (-12) vs. Virginia (Projection: W)
Virginia is 4-1 and 2-0 in the ACC, so why is Clemson a nearly two-TD favorite? Here are some numbers.
- Average margin of victory: Clemson, 28 points; Virginia, 13
- Third/fourth downs faced: Clemson, 66; Virginia, 86
- Turnover differential: Clemson, +7; Virginia, 0
In short, the Tigers have thoroughly outplayed the Cavaliers in nearly every statistic, and that’s with facing a more difficult strength of schedule.
Clemson (-8.5) vs. Louisville (Projection: W)
If Dabo Swinney’s squad suffers a second loss in the regular season, it will come in either of the next three games. Louisville is coming off of two losses to Notre Dame and SMU and needs to win out in order to have a CFP argument.
Yet, history doesn’t favor the Cardinals, as they’ve never beaten the Tigers, going 0-8 in the young series (began in 2014).
Clemson (-7) @ Virginia Tech (Projection: W)
Enter Sandman. Exit the Hokies’ ACC and CFP hopes.
After losing to Vanderbilt, Rutgers, and Miami this season (all by a touchdown or less), Virginia Tech is only playing for bowl eligibility at this point.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Clemson is riding a six-game series win streak into this contest, but Tech did win the previous five — although each was before Swinney became the head coach in Death Valley.
Clemson (-7) @ Pittsburgh (Projection: W)
The Panthers are quietly 5-0, and their offense is ranked in the top 10 in yards (521.6, fourth) and points per game (45.6, sixth). The Tigers haven’t been too shabby either, ranking 19th (495.6) and 16th (39.3) despite the abysmal 34-3 showing against Georgia in Week 1.
However, Pitt’s 35 penalties are 12 more than Clemson’s and have cost the program 110 more yards. The offensive line could also struggle against a heavily rotated and talented pass-rush unit, albeit one that has struggled to win consistently outside of DE T.J. Parker.
Clemson (-37) vs. The Citadel (Projection: W)
Clemson is 38-0 all-time against FCS teams — it will be 39-0 entering the final week of the regular season.
Clemson (-12) vs. South Carolina (Projection: W)
The Palmetto Bowl pits the two largest universities in the state of South Carolina against each other, but it’s largely been a one-sided contest since Steve Spurrier left the Gamecocks’ sideline.
Clemson eliminated South Carolina from bowl eligibility last season, and with the Gamecocks still facing No. 7 Alabama, No. 18 Oklahoma, No. 15 Texas A&M, and No. 21 Missouri, they could do so again in 2024.
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