Yes, right now it’s a two-horse race for the Big Ten Championship Game. The Oregon Ducks and Ohio State Buckeyes are on a collision course to meet once again with the likely winner earning the No. 1 seed and the loser having to play an extra Playoff game.
But what if the Indiana Hoosiers beat Ohio State? What do the Big Ten Championship Game odds do at that point?
Big Ten Championship Game Odds
The Vegas lines will be out soon enough. But before we get their latest Big Ten Championship odds after Week 11, let’s look at the road map for each team and use the CFN Football Playoff Meter as a guide to see who is most likely to make (and win) the title game.
So, here’s what we did, we locked in the results following Indiana’s win over Michigan, as well as every other Big Ten game, for that matter.
We then simulated the Big Ten season over 10,000 times, locking in with those current results and simulating the final three weeks of action in the process. Here’s how each team fared and an explanation of how we got there further down.
Big Ten Championship Game Winning Probability
- Oregon: 50.29%
- Ohio State: 40.42%
- Indiana: 7.65%
- Penn State: 1.64%
So here’s what we’re looking at for the Big Ten Championship: Ohio State and Oregon made the game on over 90% of the simulations. That means Indiana has a less-than-likely shot at upsetting Ohio State on November 23, but again, crazier things have happened. We’ll get into the exact road maps for each scenario below the standings.
Updated Big Ten Standings
1) Indiana Hoosiers 10-0 (7-0)
2) Oregon Ducks 10-0 (7-0)
3) Ohio State Buckeyes 8-1 (5-1)
4) Penn State Nittany Lions 8-1 (5-1)
5) Iowa Hawkeyes 6-4 (4-3)
6) Minnesota Golden Gophers 6-4 (4-3)
7) Illinois Fighting Illini 6-3 (3-3)
8) Wisconsin Badgers 5-4 (3-3)
9) Washington Huskies 5-5 (3-4)
10) Michigan Wolverines 5-5 (3-4)
11) UCLA Bruins 4-5 (3-4)
12) Nebraska Cornhuskers 5-4 (2-4)
13) Rutgers Scarlet Knights 5-4 (2-4)
14) Michigan State Spartans 4-5 (2-4)
15) Northwestern Wildcats 4-5 (2-4)
16) USC Trojans 4-5 (2-5)
17) Maryland Terrapins 4-5 (1-5)
18) Purdue Boilermakers 1-8 (0-6)
Oregon’s Big Ten Championship Road Map
For the Ducks, they have the luxury of simply pulling off one more victory and they’re in. In fact, they are the only Power Four team with that luxury right now as the SEC is a mess, the ACC is a three-team race with three weeks remaining, and the Big 12 is still unknown (though becoming clearer).
Oregon is the best team in the country in our Football Playoff Meter and their winning probabilities in their last two games showcase that.
- @ Wisconsin: 88.1%
- Washington: 94.4%
- Theoretical Big Ten Championship Game vs. Ohio State: 59.6%
Ohio State’s Big Ten Championship Road Map
The Buckeyes are in the hunt for a return to the Big Ten Championship despite a tough end to the season. Except, it’s not the normal regular season finale that is the troubling spot, it’s a return home after taking on Northwestern in Week 12 to face the 10-0 Hoosiers on November 23.
The Hoosiers will enter that game off a bye, and Ohio State will be eyeing down their archrival Wolverines the following week. You better believe Ohio State’s road map includes winning out, as a loss to Indiana would give the Hoosiers the tiebreaker in head-to-head competition, therefore all but eliminating Ohio State from the Big Ten Championship picture.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
A win against Indiana and a subsequent loss against Michigan would also pit Indiana and Penn State together in a tiebreaker scenario, not the Buckeyes. So, again, fans in Columbus, it’s simple: If you win the last three, you make the Big Ten Championship Game.
- @ Northwestern: 95.6%
- Indiana: 71.6%
- Michigan: 91.3%
- Theoretical Big Ten Championship Game vs. Oregon: 40.4%
Indiana’s Big Ten Championship Road Map
Now here is where we get a bit tricky. Yes, as good as Indiana has been this season, it’s likely that they’ll be a steep underdog when they travel to Ohio State in Week 13. The hopes and chances of making the Big Ten Championship are clear for Indiana, and those include defeating Ohio State in hostile territory in two week’s time.
But what if the Hoosiers lose against Ohio State? Are they still playoff-bound? Can they still make the Big Ten Championship Game?
The answers are yes, to both of those questions. They would just need some help. And that help would include Ohio State dropping either a game to Northwestern (they won’t) or Michigan (they could).
If Indiana wins out, they’re in. If they lose to Ohio State but OSU drops either of their other games, the tiebreaker goes to scenario No. 2 and pits Penn State vs. Indiana. Here’s how that would shake out, for future reference in case this pans out this way.
Big Ten Tiebreaker No. 2 is decided by each team’s record against common conference opponents’, and Indiana + Ohio State have more than a few of those.
- vs. UCLA
- Indiana: win
- Penn State: win
- vs. Maryland
- Indiana: win
- Penn State: tbd
- vs. Washington
- Indiana: win
- Penn State: win
- vs. Ohio State
- Indiana: (hypothetical) loss
- Penn State: loss
- vs. Purdue
- Indiana: (hypothetical) win
- Penn State: (hypothetical) win
So each team would be 4-1 against common conference opponents and have lost to the same team (Ohio State). In this instance, we have to move to Big Ten tiebreaker scenario No. 4 as No. 3 does us no good either. Tiebreaker scenario No. 4 looks at ‘cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents.’
Looking at it that way and you have the following results:
- Indiana conference opponent winning percentage: 48.2% (40-43)
- UCLA: 4-5
- Maryland: 4-5
- Northwestern: 4-5
- Nebraska: 5-4
- Washington: 5-5
- Michigan State: 4-5
- Michigan: 5-5
- Ohio State: 8-1
- Purdue: 1-8
- Penn State conference opponent winning percentage: 51.8% (43-40)
- Illinois: 6-3
- UCLA: 4-5
- USC: 4-5
- Wisconsin: 5-4
- Ohio State: 8-1
- Washington: 5-5
- Purdue: 1-8
- Minnesota: 6-4
- Maryland: 4-5
And sadly, for Indiana fans, tiebreaker No. 4 goes to Penn State in this scenario. But there are multiple teams with three games remaining, enough to change Indiana’s fate.
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Hoosier fans would have to root for their different opponents to notch wins down the stretch: Northwestern, Nebraska, Michigan State, and Michigan, the latter of whom would need to beat Ohio State for this scenario to even come to life anyway.
- @ Ohio State: 28.4%
- Purdue: 96.6%
- Theoretical Big Ten Championship Game vs. Oregon: 30.7%
Penn State’s Big Ten Championship Road Map
After going heavily through the scenarios for the Hoosiers above, it’s clear that Penn State needs some help to get to the Big Ten Championship Game. But, of course, they’re not out of it.
Here’s how this works for Penn State to make the Big Ten Championship:
- Indiana losses to Ohio State
- Ohio State loses to Michigan or Northwestern
- Penn State wins out
With that situation happening, the Nittany Lions would still need to have all of their Big Ten opponents win more than lose as they only hold a three-game advantage over Indiana in tiebreaker No. 4 in the Big Ten playbook.
So, while you root for Ohio State against Indiana and Northwestern/Michigan against Ohio State, Penn State fans, you’ll also be cheering for your non-common Big Ten opponents of Indiana to win out as well, increasing your opponent’s winning percentage. Those opponents you’re rooting for:
- Illinois
- USC
- Wisconsin
- Minnesota
Go on, Penn State fans, hope for the chaos. We know we are.
Here is Penn State’s winning probability down the stretch for good measure.
- @ Purdue: 94.3%
- @ Minnesota: 73.8%
- Maryland: 93.9%
- Theoretical Big Ten Championship Game vs. Oregon: 42.5%
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