Big Ten Championship Scenarios: Road Map for Oregon, Ohio State, and Even … Minnesota?

    Who has the best chance to win the Big Ten? We ran 10,000 SIMs and got six potential winners -- even if two won less than five times apiece.

    The Big Ten Championship Game is fast approaching, and with only two teams undefeated remaining in the conference, it’s simple for Oregon and Indiana: keep winning.

    As we’ll see, it’s simple for Ohio State as well, with a schedule that allows the Buckeyes to control their own destiny. A few other teams have a chance, but they’ll need some help. How can each remaining team make the Big Ten Championship for a chance to make the College Football Playoff?

    CFN CFB Playoff Predictor
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    Big Ten Championship Game Odds

    The Vegas lines will be out soon enough, but before we get their latest Big Ten Championship odds after Week 10, let’s look at the road map for each team and use the CFN Football Playoff Meter as a guide to see who is most likely to make (and win) the title game.

    CFN simulated the Big Ten season over 10,000 times, locked in with the current results and simulating the final four weeks of action in the process. Here’s how each team fared and an explanation of how we got there further down.

    Big Ten Championship Game Winning Probability

    • Oregon: 48.73%
    • Ohio State: 40.87%
    • Indiana: 8.59%
    • Penn State: 1.77%
    • Iowa: 0.03%
    • Minnesota: 0.01%

    The numbers above indicate how many times each team made the Big Ten Championship Game and subsequently won the conference. Other teams in the conference not listed never reached the Big Ten Championship Game.

    The current standings are below, but scroll below them to find the road maps for every team in the hunt. Here’s how the table sits right now in the Big Ten.

    Updated Big Ten Standings

    1. Indiana Hoosiers: 6-0 (9-0 overall)
    2. Oregon Ducks: 6-0 (9-0)
    3. Ohio State Buckeyes: 4-1 (7-1)
    4. Penn State Nittany Lions: 4-1 (7-1)
    5. Iowa Hawkeyes: 4-2 (6-3)
    6. Minnesota Golden Gophers: 4-2 (6-3)
    7. Illinois Fighting Illini: 3-3 (6-3)
    8. Washington Huskies: 3-3 (5-4)
    9. Wisconsin Badgers: 3-3 (5-4)
    10. Michigan Wolverines: 3-3 (5-4)
    11. Nebraska Cornhuskers: 2-4 (5-4)
    12. Northwestern Wildcats: 2-4 (4-5)
    13. Michigan State Spartans: 2-4 (4-5)
    14. UCLA Bruins: 2-4 (3-5)
    15. USC Trojans: 2-5 (4-5)
    16. Maryland Terrapins: 1-4 (4-4)
    17. Rutgers Scarlet Knights: 1-4 (4-4)
    18. Purdue Boilermakers: 0-5 (1-7)

    Oregon’s Big Ten Championship Road Map

    Okay, so the first one here is easy — win out, and you’re in. Obviously, that’s not the case for every team, but if Oregon wins out, the Ducks will finish the regular season undefeated in conference and overall, an obvious entrant into the Big Ten Championship Game.

    Technically, Oregon is behind Indiana on tiebreakers at the moment. Yet, it won’t matter as there’s virtually no difference between first and second in the conference since both play a neutral-site championship.

    Expect the Ducks to be there at the end, with a 90% chance of finishing the regular season undefeated. The CFN FPM looks at Oregon’s schedule and gives it an extremely high chance of making the Big Ten Championship Game. Oregon’s winning probabilities for each game remaining are below:

    • vs. Maryland: 98.4%
    • @ Wisconsin: 88.1%
    • vs. Washington: 93.8%
    • Oregon’s Big Ten Championship Winning Probability: 48.73%

    Ohio State’s Big Ten Championship Road Map

    Despite being behind Indiana in the standings, Ohio State controls its own destiny.

    How? It’s simple. The Buckeyes host the Hoosiers later in November, a game they have a 67% chance of winning, per FPM.

    MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor

    The other three remaining games look like easy victories, so it really comes down to that Indiana game. FPM really likes the Buckeyes, even ranking them slightly above Oregon, which is why those two teams combined to win the conference in nearly 9,000 of our 10,000 SIMs.

    FPM expects the Buckeyes to be in the championship game, setting up a rematch with Oregon.

    • vs. Purdue: 99.6%
    • @ Northwestern: 95.2%
    • vs. Indiana: 66.9%
    • vs. Michigan: 89.8%
    • Ohio State’s Big Ten Championship Winning Probability: 40.87%

    Indiana’s Big Ten Championship Road Map

    Just because Indiana’s path to a Big Ten championship is simple doesn’t mean it’s easy. The Hoosiers have a difficult regular season, with games against Michigan and then at Ohio State before getting bottom-feeder Purdue to end the year.

    To win the Big Ten, Indiana will need to win in Columbus and then likely beat Oregon in the championship game. FPM thinks that’s possible but not likely, explaining the championship percentage under 9%.

    • vs. Michigan: 82.8%
    • @ Ohio State: 33.1%
    • vs. Purdue: 96.7%
    • Indiana’s Big Ten Championship Winning Probability: 8.57%

    Penn State’s Big Ten Championship Road Map

    The loss to Ohio State really hurt the Nittany Lions. Their Big Ten championship percentage took the biggest hit of any team in the conference last week, but there’s still a chance.

    The Nittany Lions need some help from other teams, namely multiple losses from Indiana and a loss from Ohio State, which will be tricky. For now, the Nittany Lions can still make the College Football Playoff as an at-large team.

    The CFN FPM gives the Nittany Lions a strong chance to win out.

    • vs. Washington: 86.8%
    • @ Purdue: 94.3%
    • @ Minnesota: 73.0%
    • vs. Maryland: 94.4%
    • Penn State’s Big Ten Championship Winning Probability: 1.77%

    Iowa’s Big Ten Championship Road Map

    The top four teams in our SIMs won 9,997 out of the 10,000 simulations, but there are two teams left with a mathematical iota of a chance to win the conference, led by Iowa.

    Currently sitting in fifth, the Hawkeyes have a relatively easy end-of-year schedule, which actually hurts their chances. There are no opportunities to knock off any teams higher in the standings, and Iowa is essentially guaranteed to lose every tiebreaker that touches strength of schedule.

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    The Hawkeyes need several miraculous upsets from other teams, with losses for Penn State, Ohio State, and Indiana all required in order for Iowa to reach the Big Ten Championship.

    That’s why the CFN FPM is so low on Iowa’s championship-winning probabilities despite the Hawkeyes being slight favorites in their last three games.

    • @ UCLA: 73.8%
    • @ Maryland: 75.3%
    • vs. Nebraska: 65.7%
    • Iowa’s Big Ten Championship Winning Probability: 0.03%

    Minnesota’s Championship Road Map

    This is where we use the “So, you’re saying there’s a chance?” meme. In 10,000 simulations, Minnesota won the Big Ten once. But how?

    Let’s just say it involves Purdue pulling off multiple top-10 upsets. So yeah, it’s not likely at all, but it’s technically possible.

    • @ Rutgers: 63.1%
    • vs. Penn State: 27%
    • @ Wisconsin: 26.6%
    • Minnesota’s Big Ten Championship Winning Probability: 0.01%

    College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACCBig TenBig 12SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.

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