The Big Ten Championship race came into sharper focus in Week 13 after the Ohio State Buckeyes took down the Indiana Hoosiers. Even with another top-five victory on their resume, the Buckeyes still face a must-win game against Michigan to lock in their spot in the Big Ten Championship. Let’s dive into the details.
Big Ten Championship Game Odds
The Vegas odds aren’t quite out yet, so we can get their latest Big Ten Championship odds after Week 13 by looking at the road map for each team and use the CFN Football Playoff Meter as a guide to see who is most likely to make (and win) the title game.
So, here’s what we did, we locked in the results following Ohio State’s win over Indiana, as well as every other Big Ten game, for that matter.
We then simulated the final week of the Big Ten regular season 10,000 times, locking in with those current results and simulating the final weekend of action in the process. Here’s how each team fared and an explanation of how we got there further down.
Big Ten Championship Game Winning Probability
- Oregon: 49.98%
- Ohio State: 49.19%
- Penn State: 0.47%
- Indiana: 0.36%
So here’s what we’re looking at for the Big Ten Championship: Ohio State and Oregon made the game on over 90% of the simulations. Since Ohio State still has to get by Michigan in Week 14, Indiana and Penn State have hope.
The sim likened Indiana to make it to the Big Ten Championship in the event Ohio State did lose to Michigan more than the Nittany Lions. But the simulation liked Ohio State to win more often than any other team when they made it.
We’ll get into the exact road maps for each scenario below the standings.
Updated Big Ten Standings
1) Oregon Ducks 8-0 (11-0)
2) Ohio State Buckeyes 7-1 (10-1)
3) Indiana Hoosiers 7-1 (10-1)
4) Penn State Nittany Lions 7-1 (10-1)
5) Illinois Fighting Illini 5-3 (8-3)
6) Iowa Hawkeyes 5-3 (7-4)
7) Washington Huskies 4-4 (6-5)
8) Michigan Wolverines 4-4 (6-5)
9) Minnesota Golden Gophers 4-4 (6-5)
10) USC Trojans 4-5 (6-5)
11) Nebraska Cornhuskers 3-5 (6-5)
12) Wisconsin Badgers 3-5 (5-6)
13) Rutgers Scarlet Knights 3-5 (6-5)
14) Michigan State Spartans 3-5 (5-6)
15) UCLA Bruins 3-6 (4-7)
16) Northwestern Wildcats 2-6 (4-7)
17) Maryland Terrapins 1-7 (4-7)
18) Purdue Boilermakers 0-8 (1-10)
Oregon’s Big Ten Championship Road Map
For the Ducks, the proverbial monkey is finally off their backs. Regardless of the outcome against Washington in Week 14, they’ve secured their spot in the Big Ten Championship Game. With a bye week to rest up, regroup, and possibly get Tez Johnson back for the postseason run, Oregon had the luxury of sitting back in Week 13 to watch their potential opponents battle it out with everything on the line.
The good news for Ducks fans? Oregon holds the upper hand over the Huskies and their eventual Big Ten Championship opponent.
- Washington: 94.4%
- Theoretical Big Ten Championship Game vs. Ohio State: 51.7%
Ohio State’s Big Ten Championship Road Map
The Buckeyes hold their fate in their own hands, needing only to take down archrival Michigan in The Game during Week 14. With Ohio State likely to be significant favorites, they should have a clear path to the Big Ten Championship Game.
Of course, that’s exactly why rivalry games matter.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
For Ohio State, it’s simple: win and you’re in. A loss, however, complicates things—unless both Indiana and Penn State also lose in Week 14, which is highly improbable (though that scenario would send Penn State to the championship instead). So, for OSU: win and you’re in. Lose, and your playoff hopes hang by a thread.
- Michigan: 91.3%
- Theoretical Big Ten Championship Game vs. Oregon: 48.3%
Indiana’s Big Ten Championship Road Map
Okay, so let the loss to Ohio State settle and sink in. The punt team was responsible for the loss by all accounts, but IU certainly played well enough to keep their place in the playoff committee’s eyes, we’d hope.
Now, to how they can make the Big Ten Championship Game. It’s as simple as this: Penn State loses one of two and Ohio State loses to Michigan. Oh, and Indiana has to beat Purdue in Week 14.
This is because Indiana doesn’t own the tiebreaker against Penn State if they both finish with an 8-1 record in Big Ten play. Let’s break that down. The tiebreakers state that it would go to head-to-head record — but Indiana and Penn State didn’t play each other.
So, then it’s record against common opponents:
- vs. UCLA
- Indiana: win
- Penn State: win
- vs. Maryland
- Indiana: win
- Penn State: (hypothetical) win
- vs. Washington
- Indiana: win
- Penn State: win
- vs. Ohio State
- Indiana: loss
- Penn State: loss
- vs. Purdue
- Indiana: (hypothetical) win
- Penn State: win
So each team would be 4-1 against common conference opponents and have lost to the same team (Ohio State). In this instance, we have to move to Big Ten tiebreaker scenario No. 4 as No. 3 does us no good either. Tiebreaker scenario No. 4 looks at ‘cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents.’
Looking at it that way and you have the following results:
- Indiana conference opponent winning percentage: 37.0% (27-46)
- UCLA: 3-6
- Maryland: 1-7
- Northwestern: 2-6
- Nebraska: 3-5
- Washington: 4-4
- Michigan State: 3-5
- Michigan: 4-4
- Ohio State: 7-1
- Purdue: 0-8
- Penn State conference opponent winning percentage: 41.9% (31-43)
- Illinois: 5-3
- UCLA: 3-6
- USC: 4-5
- Wisconsin: 3-5
- Ohio State: 7-1
- Washington: 4-4
- Purdue: 0-8
- Minnesota: 4-4
- Maryland: 1-7
And sadly, for Indiana fans, tiebreaker No. 4 goes to Penn State in this scenario. Even with the games remaining, there’s a big enough gap that PSU will own this tiebreaker over Indiana all the way through.
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Hoosier fans are now the biggest Michigan and Maryland fans there are, rooting for both to beat Ohio State and Penn State, respectively.
- Purdue: 96.6%
- Theoretical Big Ten Championship Game vs. Oregon: 27.6%
Penn State’s Big Ten Championship Road Map
After breaking down the scenarios for the Hoosiers, it’s clear Penn State needs a bit of help to reach the Big Ten Championship Game. But they’re far from out of it—if they win out.
Here’s what needs to happen for Penn State to make the Big Ten Championship after Indiana’s loss to Ohio State:
Ohio State loses to Michigan
Penn State wins out
Penn State holds the tiebreaker over Indiana
If all of that falls into place, the Nittany Lions would claim the tiebreaker over Indiana and secure a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game. Even if Penn State wins out but misses the title game, they’re still likely to be the highest-ranked at-large team.
So as you cheer on your Nittany Lions in the home stretch, don’t be surprised if you find yourself Michigan’s biggest fan come Week 14.
- Maryland: 93.9%
- Theoretical Big Ten Championship Game vs. Oregon: 46.5%
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