The Big 12 is officially a mess. If this were NFL RedZone, this would be the Big 12 Witching Hour. Following the Colorado Buffaloes losing to the Kansas Jayhawks and the Arizona State Sun Devils knocking off the BYU Cougars, there are officially four teams vying for the top two spots in the Big 12 Championship Game.
Here’s how those odds stack up with everything to gain in Week 14.
Big 12 Championship Game Odds
The Vegas lines will be out once the action resets on Sunday. But before we get their latest Big 12 Championship odds after Week 13, let’s look at the road map for each team and use the CFN Football Playoff Meter as a guide to see who is most likely to make (and win) the title game.
So, here’s what we did, we locked in the results following Colorado and BYU’s losses as well as the rest of the results that came from Week 13.
We then simulated the final week of the Big 12 regular season 10,000 times, locking in with those current results and simulating the final weekend of action in the process. Here’s how each team fared and an explanation of how we got there further down.
Big 12 Championship Game Winning Probability
- Arizona State 44.40%
- Iowa State 39.96%
- BYU 7.96%
- Colorado 5.45%
So here’s what we’re looking at for the Big 12 Championship: four teams vying for two spots. And yet, with Colorado and BYU losing, this technically keeps the five three-loss teams mathematically alive in the race to the Big 12. Our sim gave those teams a very minuscule chance to make it, and we’ll leave them off of this for now, but know, we’re watching as chaos could unfold for Kansas State, Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech, or West Virginia to somehow make it.
We’ll get into the exact road maps for each scenario below the standings.
Big 12 Tiebreaking Scenarios
If all four teams finish the season with a win in Week 14, they’d all be tied with two conference losses. Here’s how the tiebreakers would unfold for these four teams if they all win.
It should be noted, that in a multi-team tie situation, the Big 12 tiebreakers state that if one team comes out victorious in a tiebreaker, the remaining tied teams reset to the top of the tiebreaking scenarios. With that in mind, let’s get to it.
The records of the four teams would be compared on winning percentage in games among the tied teams. If all teams involved did not play each other but one team defeated all other teams, that team would move to the championship game.
- BYU lost to Arizona State, but did not play Iowa State or Colorado
- Colorado did not play either team
- Arizona State beat BYU but did not play Colorado or Iowa State
- Iowa State did not play either team
The head-to-head portion will not crown a victor in this tiebreaking scenario. The tiebreakers then state move to the next scenario: records compared on winning percentage against all common conference opponents.
The four team’s common opponents are Kansas State, UCF, Utah, and Kansas.
BYU’s opponents:
Kansas State (W)
Baylor (W)
Arizona (W)
Oklahoma State (W)
UCF (W)
Utah (W)
Kansas (L)
Arizona State (L)
Houston (W *in this scenario)
BYU’s common opponent winning percentage: 3-1
Colorado’s opponents:
Baylor (W)
UCF (W)
Kansas State (L)
Arizona (W)
Cincinnati (W)
Utah (W)
Kansas (L)
Oklahoma State (W *in this scenario)
Colorado’s common opponent winning percentage: 2-2
Arizona State’s opponents:
Texas Tech (L)
Kansas (W)
Utah (W)
Cincinnati (L)
Oklahoma State (W)
UCF (W)
Kansas State (W)
BYU (W)
Arizona (W *in this scenario)
Arizona State’s common opponent winning percentage: 4-0
Iowa State’s opponents:
Houston (W)
Baylor (W)
West Virginia (W)
UCF (W)
Texas Tech (L)
Kansas (L)
Cincinnati (W)
Utah (W)
Kansas State (W *in this scenario)
Iowa State’s common opponent winning percentage: 3-1
So Arizona State would be the first to clinch from this scenario if all four teams win in Week 14 by beating all four of the common Big 12 opponents. However, that wouldn’t be the case if BYU were to lose to Houston due to similar tiebreaking effects.
If Arizona State, Iowa State, and Colorado are tied atop the standings, the common opponents come into play. Those three teams have played UCF, Kansas State, Cincinnati, Utah, and Kansas together.
Colorado’s record: 3-2; Iowa State’s record: 4-1; Arizona State’s record: 4-1. Iowa State and Arizona State would still meet.
Back to the four-team tie scenario now, though:
The tiebreakers would then reset and go back up to the top of the tiebreaking procedures with Colorado, BYU, and Iowa State. Similarly, you can work all the way down to the conference record of common opponents, and you get a similar 3-1 record for Iowa State and BYU to go with Colorado’s 2-2 record against common opponents.
You then have to take it to the next tiebreaker, which is their record(s) against the highest ranked (placed) common opponent and move down the list that way. The highest-placed common opponents are ranked like this:
- Kansas State (Iowa State would have beaten in this scenario; BYU won, Colorado lost)
- Kansas (all three lost to Kansas)
- UCF (all three won against UCF)
- Utah (all three would have won against Utah in this scenario)
In this scenario, Colorado would be eliminated via the loss to Kansas State with BYU and Iowa State moving on back to the top of the tiebreakers.
The last tiebreaker to attend to would be the record of all conference opponents among tied teams.
BYU’s opponents:
Kansas State 5-3
Baylor 5-3
Arizona 2-6
Oklahoma State 0-8
UCF 2-6
Utah 1-7
Kansas 4-4
Arizona State 6-2
Houston 3-5
BYU’s opponent Big 12 winning percentage: 28-44
Colorado’s opponents:
Baylor 5-3
UCF 2-6
Kansas State 5-3
Arizona 2-6
Cincinnati 3-5
Texas Tech 5-3
Utah 1-7
Kansas 4-4
Oklahoma State 0-8
Colorado’s opponent Big 12 winning percentage: 27-45
Iowa State’s opponents:
Houston 3-5
Baylor 5-3
West Virginia 5-3
UCF 2-6
Texas Tech 5-3
Kansas 4-4
Cincinnati 3-5
Utah 1-7
Kansas State 5-3
Iowa State’s opponent Big 12 winning percentage: 31-39
Iowa State would get in, and after the action has come in from Week 13’s Big 12 games, BYU nor Colorado can catch up to Iowa State here, no matter the results in Week 14. That means, if Iowa State wins against Kansas State, no matter what, they qualify for the Big 12 Championship Game.
So, there you have it. If all four teams that are currently tied win out in Week 14, the Big 12 Championship Game would be Iowa State vs. Arizona State, with Arizona State earning ‘home-team status’ as the first-place team.
Colorado’s Big 12 Championship Road Map
- Defeat Oklahoma State
- Two combined losses by Arizona State, Iowa State, or BYU
Colorado’s winning probability the remaining way:
- vs. Oklahoma State: 89.8%
- Theoretical Big 12 Championship Game vs. Arizona State: 50.8%
BYU’s Big 12 Championship Road Map
- Defeat Houston
- An Arizona State or Iowa State loss
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The Cougars need just one loss from Arizona State or Iowa State in Week 14 to clinch their berth in the Big 12 Championship Game.
- vs. Houston: 87.8%
- Theoretical Big 12 Championship Game vs. Arizona State: 49.4%
Arizona State’s Big 12 Championship Road Map
- Defeat Arizona
By winning against archrival Arizona, the Sun Devils would punch their ticket based on the multiple tiebreaking scenarios listed above.
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Arizona State’s winning probability the remaining way:
- @ Arizona: 65.1%
- Theoretical Big 12 Championship Game vs. Colorado: 49.2%
Iowa State’s Big 12 Championship Road Map
- Defeat Kansas State
The Cyclones are in with a win as they would own the tiebreakers over both BYU and Colorado.
- vs. Kansas State: 57.4%
- Theoretical Big 12 Championship Game vs. Arizona State: 42.6%
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