Arch Manning comes into the 2025 season as the starting quarterback at Texas with a legacy, Heisman hype, and a huge NIL to support every single decision he makes. However, in the current hyper-competitive college football environment, being loyal is not sufficient, particularly with a brutal schedule and a lot at stake. These are three very tangible, season-related situations that could still give rise to a portal move, even after the recent promises of his grandfather.
1. A Characteristic Collapse: The 2 out of 3 Early Road Tests
Texas will begin the season with a season-defining match against Ohio State on August 30, before facing road games against Florida (Oct 4) and Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry (Oct 11). All will be important CFP resume builders, and all should be ranked matchups. It is obvious to see that a defeat at Ohio State would put Texas under a lot of pressure going into the October games. Should Texas lose two of these three marquee games, both public and internal trust in the leadership of Manning and the direction of the team may be lost. That added pressure may cause Manning to seek an environment with a winning culture and less scalp pressure.
2. The Collapse of the Offensive Line Leaves Manning Overexposed
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Texas is struggling with severe protection problems into 2025. Right tackle Andre Cojoe has been ruled out for the year due to an ACL tear. The line already gave up 37 sacks last year, ranking 118th in the FBS. The line is already banged up with the Cojoe loss, and the season hasn’t even started.
Manning will be under pressure most of the time with not much depth or experience. In case the offensive line cannot protect him, and the success of the team depends more and more on his improvisation, Arch may be asked to carry a good amount of the offensive load. Both because of his development and safety, he may think twice about his place in the program.
3. A Better Opportunity Ends Up Being Elsewhere
Should Texas falter, an SEC powerhouse such as Alabama, with stability, top-tier recruiting, and established infrastructure, might be unstoppable. Alabama will bring back eight offensive starters in 2025, ranking it third among the Power Four teams in retained production. They include sophomore wideout Ryan Williams, who as a freshman had 48 receptions, 865 yards and 8 TDs, second-best of all true freshmen in the country and leading in yards-after-contact (170 YAC).
The SP+ projection in Alabama puts the Crimson Tide at No. 2 in the country, which implies both offensive and defensive elite-level play under Kalen DeBoer. By comparison, protection concerns and offensive unpredictability may undermine the progress of Arch in Texas. A place such as Alabama could easily outperform its 2025 projection and attempt to lure Manning from Austin.
Bottom Line
Arch Manning is dedicated; however, the world of college football is swift. His calculus can change with a brutal early schedule, an offensive line collapse, or a just too good to resist option. At least he is the anchor in Austin, for now.
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