ACC Championship Game Scenarios: Miami’s Loss Clouds Postseason Chances Following Week 11

    Clemson's loss last week threw a wrench in our ACC Championship Game scenarios, far more than Miami's loss to Georgia Tech did in Week 11.

    The ACC Championship Game looked like a lock for one team before Week 11 started. But following a loss to Georgia Tech, are the Miami Hurricanes in control of their own destiny anymore?

    The road map to winning the ACC Championship is now a bit murkier for all parties involved.

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    ACC Championship Game Odds

    The Vegas lines will be out soon enough. But before we get their latest ACC Championship odds after Week 11, let’s look at the road map for each team and use the CFN Football Playoff Meter as a guide to see who is most likely to make (and win) the title game.

    So, here’s what we did, we locked in the results following the Georgia Tech win over Miami, as well as every other ACC game, for that matter.

    We then simulated the ACC season over 10,000 times, locking in with those current results and simulating the final three weeks of action in the process. Here’s how each team fared and an explanation of how we got there further down.

    ACC Championship Game Winning Probability

    • SMU: 40.14%
    • Miami: 38.55%
    • Clemson: 20.00%
    • Pittsburgh: 0.72%
    • Louisville: 0.59%

    The numbers above are how many times each team made the ACC Championship Game and subsequently won the conference in the process. ACC teams not listed did not make or reach the ACC Championship Game in any of our simulations.

    We’ve dramatically dwindled the field down following the results of Week 11, Pittsburgh-Virginia notwithstanding. Ahead of Week 11, mathematically, nine teams were alive. However, with just the Pitt game to go that means anything, it’s a three-team race with some outliers behind them.

    The current standings are below, with the team road maps listed further below. Here’s how the table sits right now in the ACC.

    Updated ACC Standings

    SMU’s ACC Championship Road Map

    The new favorite in the house to win the ACC is the newest member of the conference. SMU was off in Week 11, watching as the No. 1 team in the conference and only other team with an unblemished ACC record fell to Georgia Tech.

    As such, SMU’s chances to make the ACC Championship and subsequently win are much greater. They went from 28.38% last week to an ACC-best 35.14% following the loss to Miami.

    If the Mustangs finish undefeated in the conference, they’re guaranteed a spot in the championship game. That’s thanks to Miami’s loss in Week 11 and Clemson’s loss in Week 10.

    With three winnable games left, it’s safe to say SMU can surprise more than just a few with their inclusion in the ACC Championship Game in their first year in the conference.

    MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor

    FPM expects the Mustangs to be in the championship game, setting up a College Football Playoff play-in game with Miami (or Clemson).

    • vs. Boston College: 79.9%
    • @ Virginia: 78.1%
    • vs. California: 75.5%
    • SMU’s ACC Championship Winning Probability: 40.14%

    Miami’s ACC Championship Road Map

    Okay, it was easy for Miami. And despite a loss to Georgia Tech, it’s still easy, but it has shades of grey.

    Though it was win and they’re in, it’s now, win and go to the tiebreakers to see who wins. That’s because the Hurricanes would finish with an identical ACC record of 8-1 as Clemson.

    Here’s how that happens if SMU, Clemson, and Miami win out. The Mustangs would be in with a perfect record in ACC play.

    The tiebreaker would then be between Clemson and Miami. Let’s walk through the tiebreaking scenarios to make this clear, in this instance.

    • Tiebreaker No. 1 — Head-to-Head Competition
      • no such games between Miami and Clemson
    • Tiebreaker No. 2 — Win % Against Common Conference Opponents
      • Assuming both teams win out, here’s how their winning percentage against common opponents would look:
        • Florida State (both won)
        • Wake Forest (Clemson already won; Miami would win in this scenario)
        • Louisville (Clemson lost, Miami won)

    Miami would hold a 3-0 record against common opponents, while Clemson’s loss to Louisville would put them at 2-1 against common ACC opponents. Therefore, Miami is still technically in control of their destiny.

    • vs. Wake Forest: 94.8%
    • @ Syracuse: 94.8%
    • Miami’s ACC Championship Winning Probability: 38.55%

    Clemson’s ACC Championship Road Map

    The loss to Louisville really hurt the Tigers. Despite the win in Week 11, their ACC championship percentage took the biggest hit of any team over the past two weeks. But there’s still a chance.

    Despite the Miami loss in Week 11, Clemson still won’t own the tiebreaker against the Hurricanes, as noted above. The loss to Louisville happens to be a common ACC opponent, which falls under the tiebreaker scenario No. 2 in the new-look ACC postseason rules.

    That means Clemson could win out, and as long as SMU and Miami win out, they’re out of the ACC Championship. However, after the first iteration of the College Football Playoff rankings, a win against South Carolina in the final week of the regular season could propel the Tigers to an at-large bid in the Playoffs and essentially earn them a bye week that would be an ACC Championship Game appearance.

    However, now that Miami has lost, what happens if SMU drops a game and we finish with a three-way tie between Miami, Clemson, and SMU? Of note, these teams have not played each other this year, so the first tiebreaker is immediately thrown out.

    On to tiebreaker No. 2 — and again, this is if SMU also drops one of their remaining three games — otherwise known as ‘win percentage against all common conference opponents. This is when it gets tricky, but it’s the same old story for Clemson, as they’d also be out due to the fact that SMU also beat Louisville.

    So, unless SMU loses two of three to end the season or Miami loses another, Clemson is the odd-man out in the ACC right now.

    They’re not out of it mathematically, but it’s certainly hoping for a little luck.

    • @ Pittsburgh: 52.5%
    • vs. The Citadel: 99.9%
    • vs. South Carolina: 71.6%
    • Clemson’s ACC Championship Winning Probability: 20.00%

    Pittsburgh’s ACC Championship Road Map

    Pittsburgh, like Louisville below them, are victim of tiebreaker luck. Or in their case, unlucky tiebreaker scenarios.

    The Panthers are in action against Virginia (currently trailing as of the time of publishing this) so their chances may be a non-issue very soon anyway. We expected them to have troubles with Clemson and Louisville down the stretch, but not Virginia or Boston College.

    All that meant to say, they have less than a 1% chance to making the ACC Championship Game due to tiebreaking scenarios, but they can surely spoil Clemson’s chances in Week 12 if they were to get a win there.

    • vs. Virginia: 80.2%
    • vs. Clemson: 47.5%
    • @ Louisville: 42.6%
    • @ Boston College: 63.6%
    • Pittsburgh’s ACC Championship Winning Probability: 0.72%

    Louisville’s ACC Championship Road Map

    Louisville just needed a few bounces to go its way this season, and this would be a completely different discussion. The Cardinals have a difficult schedule, one of the hardest in the conference. Unfortunately, they lost games (and thus tiebreakers) to both SMU and Miami.

    So, even if the Cardinals win out, they’d need one of those two teams to lose three conference games. Even if that happens, Pittsburgh also has to beat Clemson, and Louisville would have to win all tiebreakers against any other two-loss teams. It’s a rough draw for the Cardinals, but they’re technically not eliminated yet.

    • @ Stanford: 84.2%
    • vs. Pittsburgh: 57.4%
    • @ Kentucky: 65.1%
    • Louisville’s ACC Championship Winning Probability: 0.59%

    College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACCBig TenBig 12SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.

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