The SMU Mustangs have secured their spot in the ACC Championship Game, but their opponent remains undecided. Despite Miami’s Week 13 victory over Wake Forest, they still need one more win to clinch their place. Here’s a breakdown of how the ACC Championship Game scenarios could play out following Saturday’s action.
ACC Championship Game Odds
The Vegas lines are out.
- Miami -115
- SMU +145
- Clemson +600
And now, we’ll get our latest ACC Championship odds after Week 13 using the CFN Football Playoff Meter as a guide to see who is most likely to make (and win) the title game.
So, here’s what we did: We locked in the results from Miami and SMU on Saturday and then simulated the rest of the ACC games in Weeks 13 and 14 to get our probabilities and projections below.
Here’s how each team fared and an explanation of how we got there further down.
ACC Championship Game Winning Probability
- Miami: 50.45%
- SMU: 42.52%
- Clemson: 7.03%
The numbers above are how many times each team made the ACC Championship Game and subsequently won the conference in the process. Only SMU, Miami, and Clemson are in contention at this point of the season.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The current standings are below, with the team road maps listed further below. Here’s how the table sits right now in the ACC.
Updated ACC Standings
- SMU Mustangs 10-1 (7-0)
- Clemson Tigers 9-2 (7-1)
- Miami Hurricanes 10-1 (6-1)
- Louisville Cardinals 7-4 (5-3)
- Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 7-4 (5-3)
- Duke Blue Devils 8-3 (4-3)
- Syracuse Orange 8-3 (4-3)
- Virginia Cavaliers 5-6 (3-4)
- Virginia Tech Hokies 5-6 (3-4)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 7-4 (3-4)
- Boston College Eagles 6-5 (3-4)
- North Carolina Tar Heels 6-5 (3-4)
- California Golden Bears 6-5 (2-5)
- NC State Wolfpack 5-6 (2-5)
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons 4-7 (2-5)
- Stanford Cardinal 3-8 (2-6)
- Florida State Seminoles 2-9 (1-7)
ACC Championship Game Scenarios
With three teams vying for two spots, we’ll list the results necessary for each matchup that can happen in the ACC Championship Game:
SMU vs. Miami
The most likely outcome here is SMU locking in their spot, thanks to their victory over Virginia. For this matchup with Miami to materialize, the Hurricanes simply need to beat Syracuse in their regular-season finale. Even if SMU were to lose in Week 14, they’d still secure this game. However, the cleanest path is both teams winning out.
SMU vs. Clemson
Clemson’s chances for the ACC Championship Game now hinge entirely on Miami losing to Syracuse in Week 14. With SMU’s win over Virginia, Clemson has lost both tiebreaker scenarios to the Mustangs and Hurricanes.
For Clemson to claim second place outright, Miami must lose to Syracuse. It’s their only path forward.
Miami vs. Clemson
This matchup is officially off the table due to SMU’s victory. The tiebreaker rules, coupled with Clemson’s loss to Louisville, seal the deal. There’s no scenario where Clemson surpasses Miami in a tiebreaker. Even in a hypothetical three-way tie for first involving an SMU loss, Clemson still loses tiebreakers to both SMU and Miami, effectively eliminating them from contention.
SMU’s ACC Championship Road Map
SMU stayed ahead of Clemson and Miami with their victory over Virginia, moving to 7-0 in conference play and securing a spot in the ACC Championship Game.
They can lock in ‘home-team’ status outright with a win against Cal in Week 14.
Here’s how it shakes out:
Even if SMU loses, they tie with Clemson. The Mustangs hold the tiebreaker over Clemson due to their win against Louisville (Clemson lost to Louisville). There aren’t any other shared opponents with differing results, so Clemson’s loss to Louisville eliminates them from ACC Championship Game contention against SMU or Miami.
In their inaugural ACC season, SMU has officially punched their ticket to the conference championship.
- vs. California: 79.9%
- Theoretical ACC Championship Game vs. Miami: 45.4%
Miami’s ACC Championship Road Map
As mentioned earlier, if Miami defeats Syracuse in Week 14, they’re in. This follows their gritty win over Wake Forest in Week 13, which kept them neck-and-neck with Clemson.
A victory over Syracuse would maintain the tie with the Tigers and propel the Hurricanes into the ACC Championship Game, thanks to Miami holding the tiebreaker over Clemson.
- @ Syracuse: 92.9%
- Theoretical ACC Championship Game vs. SMU: 54.6%
Clemson’s ACC Championship Road Map
It just got a bit easier for the Clemson Tigers. Not in actuality, but it got easier to understand.
The Tigers do not own the tiebreakers over SMU or Miami, and as such, they’ll need to hold second place outright in the ACC. That means Clemson needs Syracuse to defeat Miami in Week 14 to push the Tigers into the ACC Championship Game.
MORE: How Clemson Can Still Make the College Football Playoffs
Clemson can still make the playoffs as an at-large team, but the ACC Championship Game is out of reach if Miami wins over Syracuse.
- vs. South Carolina: 58.9%
- Theoretical ACC Championship Game vs. SMU: 55.6%
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