ACC Championship Game Prediction: Florida State vs. Louisville Odds, Spread, DFS Picks, and More

    Will Florida State or Louisville win the 2023 ACC title? Step this way for the latest odds, DFS picks, and an ACC Championship Game prediction.

    After 13 weeks and 12 games, the ACC Championship Game comes down to the Florida State Seminoles and the Louisville Cardinals. It’s the first time for the ‘Noles since 2014, while Louisville hasn’t played in the title game since its formulation in 2005.

    Will Florida State bolster its playoff bid with the conference crown, or can the Cardinals play spoiler as a surprise title winner? Ahead of the game, we’ve got the latest college football betting odds, DFS picks, and an ACC Championship Game prediction.

    ACC Championship Game Betting and DFS Preview

    All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Wednesday, Nov. 29, 2023. Want to take advantage of the ACC Championship Game odds? Visit the College Football Network live college football odds page to place bets in your state.

    • Spread
      Florida State -2.5
    • Moneyline
      Florida State -142, Louisville +120
    • Over/Under
      48.5 points
    • Game time
      8 p.m. ET
    • Location
      Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
    • How to Watch
      ABC, FuboTV

    Fancy a flutter on Florida State? Got a lucky feeling about Louisville? If you’re going to take advantage of the ACC Championship Game odds, consider some of the following factors before you part with your hard-earned cash.

    After FSU raced out to a significant lead in the head-to-head against Louisville in the early years of this matchup, the two teams have traded punches in recent years, the ‘Noles taking a 17-6 advantage into the ACC Championship Game. Mike Norvell’s team also got the better of the Cardinals in their most recent meeting, a 35-31 win in Kentucky one year ago.

    Obviously, the story of this game — and the Seminoles season — has been impacted by the loss of quarterback Jordan Travis. Tate Rodemaker led the team to a win over North Alabama and they rode Trey Benson to victory in the Sunshine Showdown, but the odds on the Florida State win have shortened in the past week. The Cardinals are now just a +2.5 point underdog for Saturday.

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    Louisville has covered the only other time they were an underdog this season, a win over Notre Dame in early October. However, the nature of their Week 13 defeat to Kentucky contains an indicator of how FSU can still cover in this game. Finally, the last three Louisville games have covered the points line, and the low bar for this game gives the opportunity for hitting the over.

    Top DFS Picks and Fantasy Plays

    Florida State Depth Chart | Louisville Depth Chart

    • QB Tate Rodemaker, Florida State
    • QB Jack Plummer, Louisville 
    • RB Trey Benson, Florida State
    • RB Lawrence Toafili, Florida State
    • RB Caziah Holmes, Florida State
    • RB Jawhar Jordan, Louisville 
    • RB Isaac Guerendo, Louisville 
    • RB Maurice Turner, Louisville 
    • WR Keon Coleman, Florida State 
    • WR Johnny Wilson, Florida State 
    • WR Destyn Hill, Florida State
    • WR Jamari Thrash, Louisville 
    • WR Kevin Coleman Jr., Louisville 
    • WR Ahmari Huggins-Bruce, Louisville 
    • TE Jaheim Bell, Florida State
    • TE Kyle Morlock, Florida State
    • TE Joey Gatewood, Louisville 
    • TE Nate Kurisky, Louisville 

    There are eight college football games on the Saturday of Championship Game weekend to compile your DFS team from. If you’re new to DFS, Fanduel Superflex contests require you to select a quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, and a “Superflex” that can be any of the above or a tight end.

    The loss of FSU quarterback Travis removes the fifth-highest scoring player in the conference from your ACC Championship Game picks, ensuring that your starting quarterback will come from a different game. Jack Plummer has been impressive for the Cardinals, but he’s not the most efficient use of your DFS budget as the QB12 in the conference.

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    With the game likely to be heavily run-dominated, there are two legitimate running back options to consider. Louisville’s Jawhar Jordan is the fantasy RB2 in the conference, after tallying 14 total touchdowns and 214.1 fantasy points. After two games without a score, he bounced back against Kentucky with two touchdowns. He presents a real danger to Florida State.

    Coming into the ACC Championship Game off an even more impressive performance is FSU’s Benson. A freak combination of size, speed, and power, Benson fueled the Seminoles’ win over Florida and will likely be at the forefront of the offense against Louisville. After three touchdowns to end the regular season, he’s the fantasy RB3 in the ACC with 195 points.

    Prediction for the ACC Championship Game

    Okay, so we’ve furnished you with the ACC Championship Game odds and some DFS picks. Now, it’s time to close this thing out with our prediction. Can FSU win its first ACC Championship since 2014 and push on to compete in the playoffs? Or will Louisville end Jeff Broom’s first season in charge with the conference crown?

    Louisville comes into the ACC Championship Game as an underdog, and in many respects that has been a metaphor for their entire season. I might be wrong, but there wasn’t any analyst in the country — including here at CFN — that predicted the Cardinals would be such a competitive force in the conference this season.

    MORE: ACC QB Rankings

    Brohm has done an incredible job extracting every inch from this Louisville team, who would be competing for the playoffs themselves if not for a blip to Pitt in the middle of the year. The Cardinals rank in the top 30 teams in the nation for scoring offense and defense, with transfer quarterback Jack Plummer leading an offense teeming with playmakers.

    Meanwhile, their defense has been one of the most impressive in the nation. Former Baylor safety Devin Neal has been a force in all facets, leading the team with four interceptions and impacting the game behind the line of scrimmage. Quincy Riley, Storm Duck, and Cam’Ron Kelly complete a stellar secondary, while Ashton Gillotte is an enforcer up front with 11.0 sacks.

    The Cardinals have allowed the second-fewest rushing touchdowns in the ACC this year, while also allowing the second-fewest yards per carry. That ability to halt the ground game could be a factor against an FSU team that will have to be run-heavy to assist Tate Rodemaker in his second career start.

    That said, although they held Kentucky to just 83 rushing yards all game, Louisville gave up the game-sealing score to a big play from Wildcats running back Ray Davis with just over a minute left on the clock. They can’t afford to allow Benson the same opportunity to make an explosive play in what is likely to be a close game.

    While the ground game behind Jordan has been pivotal to Louisville’s success this year, the passing game behind Plummer has allowed it to flourish, with Louisville leading the ACC in yards per pass attempt and pass completion percentage.

    That is where Florida State could have the advantage here. The Seminoles have the number one scoring defense in the ACC, and 11th overall unit in the nation — allowing just 16.7 points per game. That success has been powered by a pass defense that has allowed just eight touchdowns and an ACC-low 47.6% pass completion to opposition quarterbacks.

    Renardo Green, Fentrell Cypress II, and Jarrion Jones fly to the ball from the secondary, enforcing a no-fly zone that Louisville would be foolish to test when the two teams meet in the ACC Championship Game. Meanwhile, Jared Verse is arguably the best defensive player in the nation and Kalen DeLoach is having a season for the ages at linebacker for the Seminoles.

    The loss of Travis is obviously a huge blow to the team. Not only has he flashed Heisman Trophy-worthy play at the position throughout the season, but he’s been a vocal and visible leader for this program throughout their undefeated run to the playoffs and return to national relevancy.

    Despite losing that influence on the 10th-ranked scoring offense in the nation, Florida State can lean on its defense and ground game to secure a conference crown and represent the conference in the College Football Playoff.

    Prediction: Florida State 27, Louisville 24

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