March Madness has been relatively calm in 2025, with power conferences dominating the Sweet 16. Seven SEC teams, four Big Ten, four Big 12, and one ACC squad comprise the field, with no mid-majors surviving the opening weekend. Despite the lack of traditional Cinderella stories, lower seeds still have opportunities to shock their opponents.
This year’s tournament features only one double-digit seed, No. 10 Arkansas, among the remaining teams. However, several other underdogs could defy expectations as the tournament progresses. Based on recent performances, matchup advantages, and expert analysis, let’s examine which lower-seeded teams have the best chance to extend their March runs.
Matchup’s Upset Potential
No. 10 Arkansas Razorbacks vs. No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders
John Calipari’s Razorbacks have already proven their upset credentials by knocking off No. 7 Kansas and No. 2 St. John’s. Freshmen Billy Richmond, Karter Knox, and Boogie Fland combined for 37 points in their second-round victory.
John Calipari and Arkansas take down legendary coaches BACK-TO-BACK in Cal’s first year with the Razorbacks 😮 pic.twitter.com/6yq5MVHUir
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) March 22, 2025
Texas Tech’s reliance on guards Chance McMillian and Darrion Williams, whose health remains uncertain, could be exploited by Arkansas’s length and athleticism. The Red Raiders’ 25% tournament shooting from deep is concerning. With leading scorer Adou Thiero potentially returning, Arkansas has moderate to high upset potential.
Expert Thomas Casale from SportsLine has highlighted this matchup as a prime upset pick, citing Calipari’s tournament experience and Arkansas’s growing momentum. If the Razorbacks continue their defensive intensity while finding offensive rhythm they could become the Cinderella story this tournament has been lacking.
No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels vs. No. 2 Michigan State Spartans
Ole Miss showed explosive offensive potential by dropping 91 points on Iowa State in the second round. Their guard-heavy attack could challenge Michigan State’s occasionally inconsistent offense. The contrast between the Rebels’ fast-paced style and the Spartans’ methodical approach creates an intriguing dynamic.
Michigan State’s defense limited New Mexico to under 65 points, but Ole Miss’s scoring outburst suggests they can compete in a high-scoring affair. If Spartans guard Jaden Akins struggles to contain Ole Miss’s backcourt, this upset has moderate potential, according to social media analysts.
Fans on X think this is the most likely Sweet 16 upset, reflecting widespread confidence in Ole Miss’s offensive firepower. The Rebels’ ability to push the pace could force Michigan State out of its comfort zone and potentially lead to a surprising result if the game becomes a shootout.
No. 6 BYU Cougars vs. No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide
BYU enters the Sweet 16, having won 11 of their last 12 games, including a second round victory over No. 3 Wisconsin. Under first-year coach Kevin Young, their offense features exceptional ball movement and three-point shooting prowess. Alabama’s up tempo style might actually benefit BYU.
Alabama’s defensive vulnerabilities could be exploited by BYU’s shooters. While Alabama star Mark Sears poses a threat, BYU’s depth could prove decisive in a back-and-forth contest. This matchup has moderate upset potential with analysts considering it a virtual toss up.
If Alabama’s fast-paced and high-scoring style turns into a track meet, BYU’s shooters could capitalize on open looks. The Cougars’ recent form suggests they’re peaking at the right time, and their balanced attack might be enough to overcome Alabama’s individual star power in a high-octane Sweet 16 contest.
No. 5 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 1 Auburn Tigers
Michigan’s unique lineup, featuring two 7-footers, Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin, creates matchup problems for Auburn’s star big man, Johni Broome.
Auburn has dominated much of the season, finishing with a 28-5 record and earning the No. 1 overall seed in the 2025 NCAA Tournament. But Michigan’s size advantage could disrupt Auburn’s efficient offense. If the Wolverines control the paint, they have moderate upset potential despite facing a top seed.
While upsetting a No. 1 seed remains a significant challenge, Michigan’s specific matchup advantages give them a fighting chance. If they can leverage their size in the frontcourt while limiting Auburn’s perimeter shooting the Wolverines could pull off one of the tournament’s most surprising upsets.
No. 4 Maryland Terrapins vs. No. 1 Florida Gators
Maryland’s dramatic buzzer beater by freshman Derik Queen against Colorado State shows their poise under pressure. Their defense forces 14.1 turnovers per game which could challenge Florida’s frontcourt. With all five starters averaging double figures Maryland brings balanced scoring to the matchup.
Florida rides an impressive eight-game winning streak, but Maryland’s grit and Queen’s emergence make this an intriguing contest. The Terrapins’ 37.3% three point shooting could keep them competitive if the game becomes a shootout giving them low to moderate upset potential.
Maryland’s balanced attack provides multiple offensive options against Florida’s deep frontcourt. If Queen continues his emergence as a difference maker and the Terrapins can force turnovers at their usual rate, they could create enough extra possessions to overcome the talented Gators squad.
No. 3 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers
Kentucky’s history against Tennessee this season bodes well for their upset chances. They have defeated the Volunteers twice while shooting 50% from three-point range in both contests. Their revamped roster under coach Mark Pope has quickly developed chemistry, with transfer Koby Brea emerging as a key contributor.
Tennessee’s defense has been elite during the tournament, allowing just 60 points per game. However, Kentucky’s backcourt could exploit matchups against Chaz Lanier and Zakai Zeigler if they can replicate their hot shooting from previous meetings. This SEC rivalry adds extra intensity to an already compelling matchup.
While the seed difference is minimal, Kentucky’s prior success against Tennessee gives them a solid chance at advancing. The Wildcats’ familiarity with their conference rival could prove decisive in a tense tournament setting where experience matters.
No. 4 Purdue Boilermakers vs. No. 1 Houston Cougars
Purdue’s Trey Kaufman-Renn demonstrated his potential with 22 points and 15 rebounds against McNeese State, suggesting he could challenge Houston’s physical style. The Boilermakers’ perimeter shooting, evidenced by their 11 three-pointers against McNeese, provides a potential counter to Houston’s smothering defense.
Houston’s defensive approach has been nearly impeccable, contributing to their 26-1 record since December. However, Purdue’s ability to stretch the floor might create opportunities, especially if the Cougars commit to doubling in the post. This presents a challenging but not impossible upset scenario.
Despite the long odds, betting analysts have highlighted this matchup as a potential surprise. If Purdue can establish an inside-outside game that prevents Houston from settling into its defensive rhythm, it could pull off one of the tournament’s most unexpected results.
No. 4 Arizona Wildcats vs. No. 1 Duke Blue Devils
Arizona demonstrated remarkable resilience by erasing a double-digit deficit against Oregon to reach the Sweet 16. Their defensive intensity could create second-chance opportunities against Duke’s lengthy lineup, which features standouts Cooper Flagg and Khaman Maluach. November’s loss to Duke might provide additional motivation.
Duke’s top-five efficiency ratings on both ends of the court make them formidable favorites, but Arizona’s experience could keep the game competitive in crucial moments.K The Wildcats’ veteran leadership might prove valuable against Duke’s talented but younger roster when pressure mounts in the second half.
While this upset seems unlikely given Duke’s talent and current form, Arizona’s determination and comeback ability suggest they won’t go down without a fight. If they can leverage their experience in a tight contest the Wildcats still have a slim chance to advance.
KEEP READING: Texas Tech vs. Arkansas Prediction
As the Sweet 16 tips off on Thursday, March 27 these teams have the opportunity to transform what has been a relatively predictable tournament into true March Madness. Arkansas, Ole Miss and BYU appear to have the strongest upset potential based on recent form and favorable matchups, but in a single-elimination format any of these teams could find themselves cutting down nets and advancing to the Elite Eight.
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