The Sweet 16 stage of March Madness brings a thrilling matchup between the No. 5 seed Michigan Wolverines (24-11) and the No. 1 seed Auburn Tigers (30-4). These two teams will battle on Friday, March 28, 2025, at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia, with a spot in the Elite Eight on the line.
Auburn, the dominant SEC champions, entered as heavy favorites with one of the nation’s most efficient offenses.
However, Michigan has already defied expectations in the tournament, and the Wolverines’ defensive prowess makes them a serious threat to Bruce Pearl’s Tigers. Can the Wolverines pull off another upset, or will Auburn continue its march toward a Final Four appearance?
Michigan vs. Auburn Betting Preview
All Michigan vs. Auburn odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, March 28, 2025.
- Spread: Auburn -8.5
- Moneyline: Auburn -375, Michigan +290
- Over/Under: 152.5
- Game Time: Friday, March 28, 2025, at 9:39 p.m. ET
- Location: State Farm Arena | Atlanta, Georgia
- How to Watch: CBS
Auburn enters this game as a significant 8.5-point favorite, and for good reason. The Tigers boast a 21-1 record when playing as a moneyline favorite with odds of -340 or shorter this season. Their ability to score at an elite level, ranking third in offensive efficiency per KenPom, makes them a dangerous matchup for any opponent.
Michigan, on the other hand, has thrived as an underdog, winning seven of its nine games in that role this season. The Wolverines also possess a top-15 defense, which could be a key factor in limiting Auburn’s scoring explosion. The total for this game is set at 152.5 points, reflecting the expectation of a fast-paced and high-scoring contest.
Michigan vs. Auburn CSN Winning Probability
According to CSN’s probability model, Auburn has a 77.3% chance to win this matchup, while Michigan holds a 22.7% chance of pulling off the upset.
This aligns closely with Vegas odds, which place Auburn as a sizable favorite. However, Michigan has already shown resilience in the tournament, and their ability to dictate the tempo could make this game more competitive than the numbers suggest.
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Prediction for Michigan vs. Auburn
This game will come down to whether Michigan’s defense can slow down Auburn’s relentless offensive attack. The Tigers have dominated teams all season with their scoring efficiency and fast-break execution. If Auburn finds its rhythm early, it could be a long night for the Wolverines.
However, Michigan has proven capable of playing spoiler, and their balanced approach could cause problems for the Tigers.
The Wolverines’ ability to hold their own on both ends of the court was evident in their 91-point performance against Texas A&M. If they can limit Auburn’s transition offense and control the glass, they have a shot at making this a tight contest.
While Michigan’s defensive capabilities could keep them in the game early, Auburn’s offensive firepower will likely prove too much to handle down the stretch. Expect the Tigers to cover the spread and advance to the Elite Eight.
Prediction: Auburn 82, Michigan 76
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