The Purdue Boilermakers and Houston Cougars clash in a highly anticipated Sweet 16 matchup in the 2025 NCAA Tournament. The Boilermakers, led by their dominant frontcourt, aim to overcome Houston’s elite defense to advance to the Elite Eight. Meanwhile, the Cougars bring a 15-game winning streak into this contest, boasting one of the best defensive units in the country.
Houston head coach Kelvin Sampson has a history against Purdue from his time at Indiana and looks to continue his winning ways in the postseason. With both teams eyeing a Final Four push, this battle at Lucas Oil Stadium will be one of the most intriguing games of the tournament’s second weekend.
Purdue vs. Houston Betting Preview
All Purdue vs. Houston odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, March 28, 2025.
Spread: Houston -7.5 (-118), Purdue +7.5 (-102)
Moneyline: Houston -300, Purdue +240
Over/Under: 131.5 points (-110)
Game Time: Friday, March 28, 2025 | 10:09 p.m. EST
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium | Indianapolis, IN
How to Watch: CBS
The oddsmakers favor Houston by 7.5 points, which aligns with the Cougars’ elite defensive profile. Houston allows just 57.9 points per game, leading the nation in that category. The Cougars also rank second nationally in opponent field goal percentage (38.1%), making life difficult for opposing offenses.
On the other hand, Purdue boasts a balanced scoring attack but will need to find answers against Houston’s suffocating ball pressure. The total of 131.5 reflects Houston’s methodical pace and defensive prowess, but Purdue’s offensive efficiency could challenge the under.
Purdue vs. Houston CSN Winning Probability
According to CSN’s advanced metrics, Houston has a 71% probability of winning this game. This projection aligns with Houston’s recent dominance but slightly diverges from Vegas, where just over two possessions favor the Cougars. Purdue’s ability to get to the free-throw line and control the glass could make the game closer than expected, but Houston’s defense remains the X-factor in this matchup.
Prediction for Purdue vs. Houston
This matchup comes down to Purdue’s offensive execution against Houston’s relentless defense. The Boilermakers, including Braden Smith, will look to their backcourt to break Houston’s pressure and facilitate quality looks for their big men. Houston’s defensive intensity, however, has overwhelmed nearly every opponent this season.
One key to this game will be rebounding. Houston thrives on second-chance points and limits opponents’ opportunities on the offensive glass. Purdue’s ability to match Houston’s physicality inside will determine whether this stays a close contest or if the Cougars pull away late.
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With Houston riding a 15-game winning streak and nearly impenetrable defensively, expect the Cougars to dictate the tempo and force Purdue into uncomfortable situations. If Purdue struggles with turnovers and fails to generate consistent scoring opportunities, Houston will have a clear path to the Elite Eight.
Prediction: Houston 68, Purdue 61
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