The Texas Longhorns (19-15) and Xavier Musketeers (21-11) square off in a high-stakes First Four matchup on Wednesday night in Dayton. With a place in the NCAA Tournament’s Round of 64 on the line, both teams enter the contest with momentum, Texas after a strong SEC Tournament run and Xavier following a late-season surge.
Texas vs. Xavier Betting Preview
A key storyline will be Texas freshman phenom Tre Johnson, who leads the Longhorns with 19.8 points per game. Meanwhile, Xavier’s veteran big man Zach Freemantle (17.3 PPG, 7.1 RPG) will look to impose his will in the paint.
The history between these programs also adds intrigue, as Texas has knocked Xavier out of the NCAA Tournament twice before. Will the Musketeers finally get revenge, or will Texas continue its dominance?
Betting Odds:
- Spread: Xavier (-2.5)
- Moneyline: Xavier -155, Texas +125
- Total: 149.5 points
- Game Time: Wednesday, March 19, 2025 | 9:10 PM ET
- Location: UD Arena | Dayton, OH
- How to Watch: truTV
Texas comes in as a slight underdog despite finishing strong in the SEC Tournament, while Xavier is favored after an impressive stretch in the Big East. The Musketeers’ defense has been inconsistent, allowing 70.9 points per game, while Texas has struggled to contain high-powered offenses, giving up 72.2 PPG.
A crucial betting trend to note: Texas games have hit the over in 10 of their last 13 contests, while Xavier is 3-1 ATS in their previous four. Bettors looking for a total play may lean toward the over given both teams’ scoring prowess.
Texas vs. Xavier CSN Winning Probability
According to the latest CSN projections, Xavier holds a 55.2% chance to win, while Texas sits at 44.8%.
This probability aligns with Vegas odds, where Xavier is the slight favorite. However, Texas’ high-scoring ability and Tre Johnson’s star potential could make this a much closer contest than the metrics suggest.
Prediction for Texas vs. Xavier
Xavier enters with a more balanced attack, but their defensive inconsistencies could prove costly against a Texas squad featuring Tre Johnson and Arthur Kaluma. The Longhorns’ ability to score in transition and create opportunities off turnovers will be key. Meanwhile, Xavier will rely on Zach Freemantle to control the paint and slow down Texas’ offensive rhythm.
KEEP READING: March Madness Fun Facts: Surprising Stats and Records You Need To Know
If the Musketeers can force Texas into inefficient outside shooting, they could pull away late. This one has all the makings of a thriller, possibly even heading to overtime. Given Xavier’s defensive struggles and Texas’ recent hot streak, the Longhorns have a strong case to pull off the upset.
Prediction: Texas 75, Xavier 72
Texas covers (+2.5), and the over (149.5) cashes in what should be a fast-paced, high-scoring affair. Expect Tre Johnson to have a signature freshman moment to lift the Longhorns into the Round of 64.
Don’t miss a moment of March Madness! Download your 2025 NCAA Tournament printable bracket and stay on top of every game, matchup, and Cinderella story. Get yours now!
