The American Eagles (22-12) and the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (22-12) face off in a crucial First Four matchup with a berth in the NCAA Tournament’s Round of 64 on the line. Scheduled for Wednesday at UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio, this showdown will set the tone for March Madness.
American enters as a slight favorite, but Mount St. Mary’s has been a strong underdog against the spread all season.
American vs. Mount St. Mary’s Betting Preview
All American vs. Mount St. Mary’s odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, March 18, 2025.
- Spread: American -2.5
- Moneyline: American -142 | Mount St. Mary’s +120
- Over/Under: 129.5 points
- Game Time: Wednesday, March 19, 2025, at 6:40 p.m. ET
- Location: UD Arena | Dayton, Ohio
- How To Watch: truTV
American has struggled against the spread as a favorite this season, going just 4-8 when laying 2.5 points or more. Conversely, Mount St. Mary’s thrives as an underdog, covering in 10 of 15 games when getting 2.5 or more points. The Mountaineers are also riding a six-game ATS win streak, while American has covered in three of its last four.
The total of 129.5 is an intriguing factor, as both teams have seen their combined opponent scoring averages exceed that mark (137.1 PPG). However, American has trended toward the under in five of its last six games.
American vs. Mount St. Mary’s CSN Winning Probability
- American’s implied probability of winning: 58.7%
- Mount St. Mary’s implied probability of winning: 45.5%
According to CSN’s predictive models, American’s probability of victory aligns closely with the odds, but Mount St. Mary’s strong ATS record suggests a tighter contest than the moneyline implies. If the Mountaineers’ defense can control the tempo, they could make things interesting.
Prediction for American vs. Mount St. Mary’s
This First Four matchup should be a battle of contrasting styles. American leans on disciplined play and defensive efficiency, while Mount St. Mary’s thrives in transition and has the edge in recent form.
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The Eagles have won their last four games against the Mountaineers, covering in three of those contests, but Mount St. Mary’s recent momentum against the spread cannot be ignored.
The spread feels tight, making Mount St. Mary’s (+2.5) an appealing pick. The total (129.5) is low given the combined scoring tendencies, so the over is the better play.
Prediction: American 70, Mount St. Mary’s 68
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