March Madness is here, and with it comes a First Four showdown between the North Carolina Tar Heels and the San Diego State Aztecs. North Carolina enters as a 4.5-point favorite, but their inconsistency has made them a tough team to predict.
Meanwhile, San Diego State looks to capitalize on its elite defense and transition play. The winner advances to the Round of 64, where a deeper tournament run awaits.
San Diego State vs. North Carolina Betting Preview
UNC’s fate largely depends on ACC Player of the Year R.J. Davis, who has been on fire lately, averaging 22.1 PPG and shooting 45.2% from beyond the arc in his last eight games. If he continues that level of play, the Tar Heels could take control early.
But the Aztecs, led by their aggressive defense, will aim to force turnovers and turn them into transition points, a strategy that has been key to their success in recent games.
All San Diego State vs. North Carolina odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, March 18, 2025.
- Spread: North Carolina -4.5
- Moneyline: North Carolina -205, San Diego State +170
- Over/Under: 142.5 points
- Game Time: Tuesday, March 18, 2025, 9:10 p.m. ET
- Location: UD Arena | Dayton, Ohio
- How To Watch: truTV
North Carolina has been dominant as a moneyline favorite, boasting a 20-3 record in such matchups this season, winning 87% of those contests. Meanwhile, San Diego State has played the underdog role 10 times, emerging victorious in four of those games.
The Aztecs’ ability to disrupt offenses has made them a live underdog, particularly against teams prone to turnovers, an area where UNC has struggled at times.
The total for this game presents an interesting dilemma. If the Tar Heels dictate the pace and turn this into a high-scoring affair, the over should hit easily. However, if SDSU’s defense controls the tempo and forces UNC into half-court sets, the under becomes the sharper play. Bettors should consider watching live trends before jumping in on the total.
San Diego State vs. North Carolina CSN Winning Probability
- North Carolina: 67.2% implied probability
- San Diego State: 37.0% implied probability
According to the odds, North Carolina has a strong 67.2% chance of winning this contest, but San Diego State’s gritty playstyle gives them a better chance than their 37% implied probability suggests. While Vegas is leaning in favor of UNC, the Aztecs’ ability to force turnovers and capitalize on mistakes could keep this closer than expected.
Prediction for San Diego State vs. North Carolina
The Tar Heels have the best player on the court in R.J. Davis, whose offensive explosion has kept UNC afloat all season. If Davis delivers another stellar performance, it could be enough to push North Carolina past SDSU.
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However, UNC’s defense has been inconsistent, and if they struggle to take care of the ball, the Aztecs will make them pay in transition.
Expect a competitive matchup where tempo will dictate the final score. If UNC can keep the pace fast, they’ll cover the spread. If SDSU forces a grind-it-out battle, this could be a one-possession game late. Still, UNC’s star power should prevail in the end.
Prediction: North Carolina 74, San Diego State 69
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