March Madness bracket pools don’t start until Thursday afternoon, but that doesn’t mean we have to wait until then to build up the bankroll. Now, we have a pair of play-in bets to lock in with two Thursday spreads that jump off the screen.
March Madness: Early Best Bets
St. Francis vs. Alabama State (-4.5, 139.5)
These two teams have nearly identical profiles, which positions me to take the points, but why stop there?
We’ve seen St. Francis excel at closing the deal of late (all six of their games during their current win streak either went to overtime or were decided by a single point), and they are the side I’d want to be on if this game is close with the clock melting.
Alabama State is a bottom-10 team in this field in both foul rate and free throw percentage, two categories that are often tied to late-game success. The Red Flash rarely foul, and while they are below average in conversion rate from the stripe, Riley Parker is their primary ball-handler. He has knocked down 85.9% of his freebies this season (15 straight makes).
In my opinion, we are getting points to take a stable late-game team opposing one that needs sophomore Amaar Knox to prevent defenses from packing in their defense. He was ice cold during the SWAC tournament (6-33 FG, 1-9 3’s). I don’t think either of these teams has a chance to win on Thursday night, but this spread appears to be over-indexing St. Francis’ sub-.500 record this season.
Pick: St. Francis moneyline (+150, DraftKings)
Texas vs. Xavier (-2.5, 149.5)
The selection committee ranked these two teams similarly, and Vegas seems to agree.
I do not.
Xavier’s passing metrics grade is nothing short of elite, partly because versatile Zach Freemantle is comfortable anywhere on the court. This offense is a tough matchup for any defense, especially for a unit that ranks in the 20th percentile of teams in this field.
This total sits where it does because both teams like to push pace and the more possessions we get, the sharper I think this Musketeers play has the potential to be.
The Longhorns are getting a lot of respect for the potential they showed at the peak of their powers (wins over Kentucky, Texas A&M, and Mississippi State), but if we are talking about mean projections, that’s not the level we should expect to see against a stable Xavier defense that largely doesn’t give up many easy points.
I don’t think this game comes down to the wire, but if it does, the favorites have, in my opinion, the two most trustworthy players in this game and three regulars who knock down over 80% of their free throws.
Pick: Xavier -2.5 (-115. DraftKings)
Pick: Xavier to win both halves (+265. DraftKings)
Creighton vs. Louisville (-2.5, 145.5)
Maybe I’m crazy, but I have Creighton handicapped as more likely to win multiple games in this tournament than to be one-and-done. The Bluejays are far from a flawless team, but if they are playing within their comfort zone, this seed line doesn’t do them justice.
Creighton has won its 10 slowest games this season by an average of 11.9 points (5-5 in its 10 fastest games), and we have three examples this month alone in which a team that likes to play slow was able to force Louisville into that style (Stanford twice and Duke).
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If that’s the case in this spot, the Cardinals’ struggles to distribute and create offense will likely be on full display. Creighton can sometimes struggle with offensive consistency, but if Louisville isn’t getting good looks at the rim regularly, it feels like “when,” not “if,” when it comes to a Bluejay game-breaking run.
Chucky Hepburn is naturally a worry for us Creighton supporters, and while the overall numbers have been solid throughout his career, should we be concerned under the bright lights? Over his past four postseason games, the aggressive guard has made just 18 of his 53 shots from the field, often forcing the issues, which projects as a problem against a Bluejays defense that may not be elite but rarely gives up easy points.
The recent surge of Jamiya Neal for Greg McDermott’s group gives this offense enough pop to advance through this game. The fact that we are getting points gives us additional peace of mind should this game come down to the wire late.
Pick: Creighton +2.5 (-108. DraftKings)
Drake vs. Missouri (-6.5, 133.5)
For the record, I have Missouri ranked higher in my March Madness Power Rankings, but it’s by the slimmest of margins. Drake is a live underdog, and it’s because they do two things at a high level – they rebound (eighth highest rebound rate in this field), and they slow you down (their average pace is 3.8% slower than any other team).
Do those strengths lead to an outright upset? We will have to wait and see, but I’d be surprised if this is not within a few possessions late and we are getting a lot of points in a game that projects like that (Drake has lost one game over the past 385 days by more than six points).
This Mizzou team limps in having lost four of their past five, and while much of that has to do with the strength of the SEC, this Bulldogs matchup isn’t exactly a walk in the part in terms of physicality. The Tigers have dropped nine of 15 games when not winning the rebound battle (16-2 otherwise), a trend I believe could be in play on Thursday.
READ MORE: March Madness Cinderellas: Which Teams Are Poised To Bust Brackets?
Maybe we connect the dots on a few play-in games, and you want to invest those winnings into a Drake moneyline ticket. I wouldn’t tell you not to – I’m taking the more conservative approach now.
Pick: Drake +6.5 (-112. DraftKings)
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