The Houston Cougars face off against the underdog Colorado Buffaloes in what promises to be an intriguing first-round matchup. While Houston enters as heavy favorites, their frontcourt depth has been tested all season due to injuries, potentially opening a narrow window of opportunity for Colorado.
Coach Kelvin Sampson’s squad has weathered the injury storm admirably en route to securing the tournament’s top overall seed. However, as March Madness history reminds us, even the mightiest teams can stumble when not at full strength, leaving Cougar Nation watching the training room updates as closely as the scoreboard.
Colorado-Houston Injury Report
Houston Cougars
G Terrance Arceneaux (Foot): Arceneaux is dealing with soreness after rolling his ankle and being accidentally kicked by teammate JoJo Tugler in a recent victory. The good news for Houston fans is that the sophomore has responded well to rehabilitation efforts and is officially active for today’s matchup, though his minutes may be monitored.
C Jacob McFarland (Leg): McFarland remains sidelined after suffering a devastating broken leg in October. The 6’10” red-shirt freshman’s absence has been felt throughout the season as he was projected to be a key interior defender and rebounder. There is still no clear timetable for his return forcing Houston to adapt their frontcourt rotations.
Despite this injury concern, Houston’s depth has allowed them to maintain dominant form. Coach Kelvin Sampson has masterfully adjusted his rotations, with Emanuel Sharp and L.J. Cryer shouldering additional backcourt responsibilities while J’Wan Roberts and Francis continue to anchor the frontcourt.
Houston’s defensive identity remains intact even with minor injury challenges. The Cougars are among the top in scoring defense (57.8 points allowed per game) and rank second in field goal percentage defense (38.2%), showcasing their ability to excel despite not being at full strength.
Colorado Buffaloes
The 16-seeded Buffaloes enter this matchup as significant underdogs but relatively healthy. Coach Tad Boyle’s squad will look to exploit Houston’s frontcourt by emphasizing interior play and aggressively crashing the offensive glass.
Colorado’s offensive strategy will likely focus on testing Arceneaux’s mobility early if he’s on the court. Forcing the injured guard to defend in space could potentially limit his effectiveness or force Coach Sampson to adjust his minutes, disrupting Houston’s preferred rotation.
Game Prediction
Houston enters the tournament on a blistering run, having won 23 of its last 24 games. Its only loss came in a nail-biter against Texas Tech back at the beginning of February. Its suffocating defense has held opponents under 60 points in nine of those contests, demonstrating why it earned the tournament’s top overall seed.
Colorado has been inconsistent, going 6-4 in their last ten games, though they showed flashes of brilliance so far in the conference tournament. The Buffaloes average 77.3 points per game but will face an entirely different caliber of defense against Houston.
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Despite their minor injury concern, Houston remains heavily favored with a projected 13-point margin of victory. For Colorado to have any chance at a historic upset, they’ll need to capitalize on Houston’s frontcourt limitations while shooting exceptionally well against the nation’s most formidable defense.
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