Spring is in the air. Conference tournaments have begun, and teams are locking in their NCAA tournament berths as we speak.
With Selection Sunday on March 16, there are still a few days for the anticipation to come to a boil, so the best we can do is speculate. Where does the NCAA Tournament bracket stand today? We’re here to break down who’s in, who’s out, and the most surprising teams and storylines from the bunch.
2025 March Madness Bracket Predictions
With so much pressure on teams in conference tournaments, sometimes we lose sight of those on the bubble, trying to claw their way in.
With Power 4 conference tournaments finally in full swing, teams that are nowhere near the tournament are looking to find a way to become the next NC State, who received an automatic bid last year and made their way through the madness and into the Final Four.
What bubble team will get in? Who gets knocked out? Let’s get into it.
Who’s In?
Oklahoma Sooners — 19-11 (6-12 SEC)
It’s been nothing but red recently for the Sooners, who lost 12 of their first 16 in SEC play after starting off the season 13-0. But they’ve finally locked themselves into the field with a strong final week of regular season play.
Oklahoma got a ranked win against No. 21 Missouri and added a home victory against rival Texas to finish the season off in emphatic fashion.
The Sooners face a long way up with 12 SEC teams likely already in the mix, but a combined 10-11 record in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games should give them an edge over some other bubble teams.
The Sooners should be hoping for another win or two in the SEC Tournament to solidify their standing. Adding wins against Georgia and No. 15 Kentucky could be what they need to take themselves over the edge.
Xavier Musketeers — 21-10 (13-7 Big East)
Unlike the Sooners, the Musketeers have been hot as of late, rattling off seven straight wins to end the regular season.
The big concern for Xavier, though, is the quality of play. In a relatively weak Big East year, the Musketeers have struggled to pick up Quad 1 wins, only managing one at Marquette in January. However, the squad is 8-2 against Quad 2 teams and undefeated against Quad 3 and 4 teams, which plays to their favor.
Now, with a date against No. 25 Marquette on the horizon in the Big East quarterfinal, Xavier has a chance to stamp their ticket definitively. An extra Q1 win could do wonders for their prospects, and racking up a second against No. 6 St. John would clinch their spot for good.
Colorado State Rams — 22-9 (16-4 Mountain West)
The Rams may have just stolen a spot into the big dance from Boise State with a road win at ExtraMile Arena Friday. Propelled by a staggering 36 points from senior guard Nique Clifford, the Rams grabbed the bull (or perhaps the Broncos) by the horns and tossed it out of the field of 68.
The Rams finished the season off strong, winning seven in a row en route to a second-place finish in the Mountain West. Now, they’ll be rewarded with a bye as they await the winner of No. 7 Nevada and No. 10 Fresno State.
If they can get through that challenge and into the Mountain West Championship Game, Niko Medved’s team will likely be able to let out a big sigh of relief and get a plane ready to send them dancing.
Who’s Out?
Ohio State Buckeyes — 17-14 (9-11 Big Ten)
It just won’t be enough for the Buckeyes. After a 13-8 start to the season, it all collapsed in Columbus. The Buckeyes dropped six of their last ten games, sinking to tenth in the Big Ten and losing all hope of making the NCAA tournament.
It didn’t have to be like this. The Buckeyes led by 10 in the second half of the final game of the season against bubble team Indiana. Instead of holding on, they conceded 41 points in the final 20 minutes, blowing their lead and likely their chances of making it to March Madness.
But not all hope is lost for Ohio State. The Buckeyes will face Iowa in a first-round matchup for the right to face No. 18 Wisconsin in the Big Ten Tournament. A ranked win against the Badgers could be exactly what the doctor ordered to get OSU into the field of 68.
North Carolina Tar Heels — 20-12 (13-7)
It just won’t be enough for the Tar Heels.
A six-game winning streak brought everyone in Chapel Hill hope as rival Duke came into the Dean Dome. Ultimately, hope was all they had.
The Tar Heels were competitive early, keeping the score in check for the first 30 minutes of the game, before seeing the No. 1 Blue Devils pull away late. It was the big win the ACC giant — who is now 1-11 in Quad 1 games — needed.
It’s not over yet for the Tar Heels, who could pull off a Wolfpack-esque run in the ACC Tournament to punch an auto-bid into the big dance. If they meet Duke one more time in the semifinals, even just a run to the championship in a weak ACC could be enough.
Dayton Flyers — 22-9 (12-6 Atlantic 10)
The Flyers, who have won 11 of 14, good enough to push themselves to third in the A-10, got hot too late. Dayton, whose NET ranking is 67, lost too many games to lower-quality competition early in the season, and now it’s going to cost them.
The odds of an A-10 team earning their ticket into the dance through an at-large bid seems unlikely at this point in the season, so Flyers fans will be holding their breath, hoping their team can squawk their way into the A-10 championship and outmatch VCU, who they split the season series with.
Biggest Surprises
ACC – Only Three NCAA Tournament Locks
The ACC had only two teams ranked in the AP’s top 25 heading into the season. While that signaled potential disappointment, the conference’s 2025 campaign has been even more disastrous than expected.
The conference has six teams with 20 or more wins and one more in Stanford with 19. But only three are locks to make it to the field of 68: Duke, Clemson and Louisville.
For Wake Forest, UNC, and SMU, the 20-win mark just hasn’t been enough. But if any of the three can make a serious run in the ACC Tournament this week — even just making the championship game — perhaps a fourth can cross the mark into an at-large bid.
It’s a bad look for one of the sport’s premiere conferences.
How about those Wisconsin Badgers?
Who saw this one coming?
The Badgers entered the season a projected bubble team, with stars A.J. Storr, Chucky Hepburn, and Connor Essegian shipping off for bigger and better things in the transfer portal. Now, Greg Gard’s team looks like a sneaky tournament contender despite a tough loss on senior night to Penn State.
Wisconsin has historically struggled in the Gard era in March (Garch?), losing to No. 12 JMU in the first round of the NCAA tournament last year. Now’s the time for the embattled head coach to finally make his rise to the top.
KEEP READING: Joe Lunardi’s Final Bubble Watch
Perhaps most surprising of all, the analytics love the Badgers, with KenPom ranking Wisconsin 12th and NET putting the Badgers at 19th overall. That’s new; as a No. 3 seed in 2022, the Johnny Davis-led Badgers were buried at 37 in the KenPom rankings.
If Gard’s team can keep up their 35% three-point shooting and stay consistent from the charity stripe, we may just see them reach the second weekend of the tournament for the first time since Gard’s first full season in 2016-17.
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