The Big Ten has been a much-improved conference since last season when only six teams made the NCAA Tournament. Now, according to ESPN’s Neil Payne, there are as many as 10 teams that have over a 50% chance of reaching the tournament.
Another team—the Nebraska Cornhuskers—had been considered for an at-large bid but collapsed over the past two weeks and now won’t even be in the Big Ten Tournament, which only allows seeds 1-15 to participate in the conference tournament. That just shows how strong the conference has been over the course of the season.
What Teams Have the Best Chance of Winning the Big Ten Tournament?
Which teams have the best chance of winning the whole thing? We’ll list the teams with the top four odds as well as provide reasoning as to why they may claim the trophy by the end of the weekend.
For this piece, we’re using our very own College Sports Network winning projections as well as FanDuel Sportsbook for our betting odds.
Michigan Wolverines — 13.33% (CSN) +1600 (FD)
Despite having the seventh-highest betting odds to be Big Ten Tournament champions, the Wolverines assume the first spot in our metrics. That’s likely due to their overall resume being relatively strong without taking into account that they dropped their last three games and looked extremely shaky in each one of them.
On the season, the duo of seven-footers Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf led the team, overwhelming foes with their size while the versatility and positional size of Wolf on the perimeter gave opponents fits.
However, during their three-game skid to end the season, lead guard Tre Donaldson scored only 21 points combined. There’s a lot of pressure on him to produce as the only double-digit scorer in the backcourt.
If he can regain his form from earlier this season — when he scored in double figures in 13 of 14 outings — the Wolverines will be just fine, but it remains to be seen if he do that.
Michigan State Spartans — 10.47% (CSN) +250 (FD)
The regular-season champion Spartans have surged as of late, winning their final seven games. One of the main reasons for that has been the emergence of freshman guard Jase Richardson, who exploded as a scorer down the stretch of the season.
Outside of Richardson, Michigan State is an extremely balanced squad with numerous key contributors who can step up at any time.
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Head coach Tom Izzo’s team has an above-average defense and knows how to win, but the dynamic scoring of Richardson lifts their ceiling exponentially — in the Big Ten Tournament and the NCAA Tournament.
That’s not to say the path in the conference tourney will be easy; in the quarterfinals, the Spartans will face either the Oregon Ducks or Indiana Hoosiers, both dangerous teams that have played their best basketball late in the season.
Purdue Boilermakers — 10.21% (CSN) +650 (FD)
After a four-game losing streak in the middle of February, the Boilermakers seem to be back on track having finished the season winning two of their final three games.
Purdue is led by junior point guard Braden Smith, who has blossomed as a scorer and passer this season in a lead role.
The improvement of junior forward Trey Kaufman-Renn has also been one of the main storylines of the season in the Big Ten; after averaging 6.4 ppg last year, Kaufman-Renn is now scoring 19.7 ppg, the third-highest mark in the Big Ten.
Purdue may have a tough matchup in their first game, as they’ll face either the USC Trojans or Rutgers Scarlet Knights in the second round. Both teams boast talented players with the potential for an upset if the Boilermakers aren’t on their game.
If Purdue does come to play in each game and Smith is able to pick opposing defenses apart at will, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Boilermakers holding the trophy after the championship game.
Maryland Terrapins — 9.86% (CSN) +430
The Terrapins have surprised this season, finishing as the No. 11 team in the latest AP Poll. They’ve excelled this season against the best of the best in the Big Ten, beating the Wolverines, UCLA Bruins, Illinois Fighting Illini, and Wisconsin Badgers and losing by three points on a heartbreaking buzzer-beating half-court heave to the top-seeded Spartans.
It should come as no surprise that they have the second-highest betting odds to win the whole thing after claiming the second seed in the tournament and showing that they can beat anybody in the conference.
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They’ll likely have to play Illinois in the quarterfinals before taking potentially taking on either the Boilermakers or Wolverines in the semifinals — completely winnable games for a talented and mature Terrapins squad that’s already won 24 games this season.
Best of the Rest:
- Wisconsin Badgers: +600
- Illinois Fighting Illini: +650
- UCLA Bruins: +750
- Oregon Ducks +1600
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