The No. 5 Florida Gators will travel to Tuscaloosa, Ala., Wednesday night to take on the No. 7 Alabama Crimson Tide in a matchup between two SEC heavyweights.
These two teams are tied for second place in the SEC standings with only two games remaining. Taking the tiebreaker into consideration, whoever wins this game will finish as the second seed in the upcoming SEC Tournament. Who will come out on top?
Find out below as we make a prediction and break down the spread, total, and money line bets.
Florida vs. Alabama Betting Preview
All Florida vs. Alabama odds are from Fanduel Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, March 5, 2025.
- Spread
Alabama -2.5 - Moneyline
Alabama -152, Florida +126 - Over/Under
178.5 Points - Game Time
Wednesday, March 5, 7:00 p.m. ET - Location
Coleman Coliseum | Tuscaloosa, AL - How To Watch
ESPN2
Florida has been excellent at covering this season, with a 21-8 record ATS and 11-5 in conference play. They’ve covered seven of their last eight games.
Similarly, Alabama is also terrific ATS, holding a 17-12 overall record. They’ve also covered 11 of their 16 SEC matchups, including covering each of their last three games. Following a loss—the Crimson Tide fell to the Tennessee Volunteers in their last game—Alabama has covered four out of five opportunities.
The Gators combine an explosive offense with a stifling defense. Despite their offensive capabilities, only 12 of their 29 games have gone over this season, with seven of 16 conference games reaching that mark. However, the over has been successful in each of their last two contests.
Head coach Nate Oats’ Crimson Tide squad gets up and down the floor quickly, but Vegas has them figured out with only 15 of their 29 games going over. That number is nine of 16 in conference play despite the under hitting in two of their last three games.
Florida vs. Alabama Preview
The Gators will enter Tuscaloosa with a 12-4 SEC mark, tied with Alabama for second place in the conference standings. Florida recently lost a game to the surging Georgia Bulldogs on the road, which dropped them two spots to No. 5 in the AP Poll rankings.
The Crimson Tide hold a 23-6 record on the season and are coming off their third loss in five games, an uncharacteristic stretch for Oats’ team this season. Despite that, they’re still ranked No. 7 and remain a dangerous threat come the SEC and NCAA Tournaments.
The biggest reason for that is that they have arguably the best point guard in the nation in senior Mark Sears. At 6’1″, Sears’s game is anything but small. He pours in a team-high 19.1 ppg—also the second-highest mark in the conference. Sears dishes out an even 5.0 apg as the team’s primary ball-handler and creator.
That’s not to say that the Crimson Tide don’t have tremendous depth behind him; they absolutely do. Backup point guard Aden Holloway has turned the heater on in conference play with double-figure scoring in 10 of his last 11 games.
Do-it-all forward Grant Nelson reels in a team-leading 8.0 rpg and 1.3 bpg, while adding 11.8 ppg offensively. Every part of the 6’11” seniors’ game is additive to Alabama. Nelson did appear on the injury report with a questionable status due to a lingering shin contusion, but Oats said he should be all good to go for Wednesday.
Overall, five Alabama players score in double figures on the season, with more close behind.
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These Gators are one of the only teams in the country that can rival the incredible depth of the Crimson Tide.
They’re led by a trio of guards in Walter Clayton Jr. (16.9 ppg), Alijah Martin (14.7 ppg), and Will Richard (13.6 ppg). Richard, despite being third in terms of per-game scoring, has been the star as of late. In his last two games, he’s amassed 55 points, a season-high for a two-game span for the 6’4″ guard.
Outside of their prolific scoring guards, sophomore forward Alex Condon plays a Nelson-esque role for the Gators with his versatility and stat-stuffing nature. He scores 10.5 ppg while grabbing a team-leading 7.7 rpg and blocks 1.5 shots per game.
Two more Florida players score over eight points per game.
It very well may come down to the guards—Sears and Holloway vs. the Gators’ trio—but the depth of both these teams will be an intriguing thing to watch. When the stars go to the bench, who will have the upper hand?
Best Bets and Final Score Prediction
The over/under being set at 178.5—and climbing, as it opened at 177.5—is eye-popping. It’s an extremely large number, especially for a top-10 matchup between two very competitive teams.
But it’s not unreasonable, as both average in the 80s in terms of points per game. Two up-and-down teams could absolutely register a score over that number — but I’d be willing that it won’t happen.
The expected final score is 91-87, a track meet-style contest that the Gators have not shown on their schedule this entire season. The Crimson Tide have indeed — but Florida plays much better defense than them.
Gators head coach Told Golden may choose to slow down the tempo of the game to force Alabama to play outside of their comfort zone. At the same time, that’d take some of the home-court advantage away.
Take the under of 178.5. It may continue to keep climbing until game time, as people want a high-scoring game. In that instance, keep hammering the under.
In terms of the spread and money line, there isn’t a ton to glean from these teams’ records ATS. They each hold an identical 11-5 SEC record ATS, rendering it a moot point.
What does come into play is Alabama’s 4-1 record ATS following a loss. They are, in fact, coming off a loss to Tennessee, and after having proven to come out firing after a defeat, why wouldn’t they do it again with even more motivation and anticipation that comes with a top-10 matchup?
For that reason, I’m riding with Sears, Oats, and the Crimson Tide. They may not roll necessarily, but they’ll cover the spread of -3.5 and grab the No. 2 seed in the SEC tournament.
Picks: Under 178.5 Points, Alabama -2.5
Prediction: Alabama 87, Florida 81
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