March Madness is here, and the rush to get ready is underway. But it’s a complicated dance. I get it. There are only 364 D-I teams. The bulk of the season occurs with the NFL going on, and the turnaround from bracket release to bracket lock is tight.
Fortunately for you, I’ll be “that guy.” I’ll post the numbers, research the trends, and value every pick so you can tail and maybe win the office bracket pool.
March Madness Formula
The process of ranking teams for an event as volatile as the NCAA Tournament is an inexact science. We are talking about 18- to 22-year-old kids with a wide range of possible outcomes every time they touch the ball, let alone throughout an entire game.
With that in mind, some patterns have developed over time, allowing us to play the odds and bet on which profiles are most likely to win.
I’ve studied this tournament for over a decade, charting which metrics correlate with success. From more apparent measures like effective field goal percentage (eFG%) to lesser evaluated ones like foul rate, I weigh my key stats according to how closely they’ve been tied with March’s success in the past to get a power ranking for every team in the field.
Every year is different as the game evolves, so I take every season as its entity. I rank every team against the field of that season, and it produces a March Madness score. With this number, I can compare past profiles with current ones and create a list like this that puts context to the power ranking.
Stick with me throughout the next week, and you’ll get:
- Profile Rankings Since 2021
- Tournament Winner
- Biggest Bust
- Power Rankings
- And that’s just a start
March Madness Sweet 16 Trend To Follow
Eight stats drive our formula. Enough to get a good feel for a profile, but not too many to muddy the waters. Since 2021, here are the Sweet 16 rates.
How many of these eight boxes Sweet 16 qualifiers ranked in at least the 75th percentile against the field for that season?
Coen Carr AT IT AGAIN! 🤩@coencarr2 x @MSU_Basketball pic.twitter.com/BV8NkI087C
— FOX College Hoops (@CBBonFOX) March 15, 2025
Statistical Categories – % Of Teams To Achieve
- 8 – 0%
- 7 – 0%
- 6 – 4.7%
- 5 – 14.1%
- 4 – 32.8%
- 3 – 62.5%
- 2 – 79.7%
- 1 – 93.8%
- 0 – 100%
The metrics we used are varied enough that a team can’t grade out as elite across the board. That said, reaching the 75th percentile of the tournament field in at least three categories is a great sign. Here is a look at how many predictive boxes are checked by the contenders (sorted by the exact number of checkmarks earned).
Eight Categories
- Zero teams qualified
Seven Categories
- Zero teams qualified
Six Categories
- No. 1 seed Duke and No. 2 seed Michigan State
Five Categories
- No. 2 seed Tennessee, No. 8 seed Gonzaga, and No. 12 seed Liberty
Four Categories
- No. 6 seed Illinois, No. 8 seed UConn, No. 7 seed St. Mary’s, No. 11 seed Xavier, No. 12 seed UC San Diego, and No. 14 seed Lipscomb
Three Categories
- No. 1 seed Auburn, No. 2 seed Alabama, No. 3 seed Texas Tech, No. 6 seed BYU, No. 3 seed Wisconsin, No. 4 seed Arizona, No. 9 seed Creighton, No. 7 seed Kansas, No. 10 seed Utah State, No. 5 seed Oregon, and No. 13 seed High Point
A good bracketologist never fills and tells, but I will tell you that I currently have 11 of these teams making up my Sweet 16 and am committed to the five teams at the top of this list making it to next week.
WHO COULD BE CINDERELLA? A LOOK AT TEAMS WHO COULD BE A BRACKET BUSTER
It’s a great week to have a great week and I trust the process in such a way that this list can help serve as a guide when it comes to being toward the top of your bracket standings once we get through this first chaotic week of wall-to-wall action!
Don’t miss a moment of March Madness! Download your 2025 NCAA Tournament printable bracket and stay on top of every game, matchup, and Cinderella story. Get yours now!
