Let me be clear: Over time, we’ve seen every profile win during March Madness. We’ve also seen every type of team fall flat. That’s simply a fact. Nothing should surprise you in a game that features young kids and requires us to project a singular 40-minute sample.
I understand that I am in the business of putting you, as a bracket filler-outer (that’s the official term, trust me), in the best position possible to succeed.
If you trust your process and the work that goes into it, which I very much do, you’ll like your chances of performing over expectations every time you put pen to paper, and that’s all you can ask for.
I’ve run through plenty of numbers; you can check them all out. If you just want power rankings, have at that. If you want it broken down by region, that’s cool. Do you only wish to my takes on the one-seeds? Two-seeds? Double-digit seeds?
I’m nothing if not a people-pleaser, and you can click on any of that content. Here, I wondered if a particular style of play has traditionally had more success than others. “Slow” play gets a bad rap because of Virginia falling as a one-seed—but don’t forget that they won a title the following season.
Fast teams are exciting, and while North Carolina teams have won by forcing tempo, there are plenty of examples of teams like Kentucky that play the same way and fall to Saint Peter’s.
It can go both ways. Pace is not directly factored into my predictive formula, but I track it, so I thought I’d share some of the results regarding the optimal style of play.
March Madness: Is Playing With Pace a Good Thing?
Let’s cut right to the chase. We know that while fireworks are often early on, the teams left standing are often powerhouses. With that in mind, I wanted to look at the teams on the five-line or better for this study.
From 2021-24, here are the 15 fastest teams that occupied a 1-5 seed when they bowed out in the tournament that season.
- 2021 Arkansas (3-seed) – Lost in Elite Eight
- 2021 Alabama (2-seed) – Lost in Sweet 16
- 2021 Gonzaga (1-seed) – Lost in Title Game
- 2024 Kentucky (3-seed) – Lost in Round 1
- 2024 Alabama (4-seed) – Lost in Final Four
- 2022 Gonzaga (1-seed) – Lost in Sweet 16
- 2024 Arizona (2-seed) – Lost in Sweet 16
- 2021 Oklahoma State (4-seed) – Lost in Round 2
- 2022 Arizona (1-seed) – Lost in Sweet 16
- 2023 Arizona (2-seed) – Lost in Round 1
- 2023 Alabama (1-seed) – Lost in Sweet 16
- 2023 Xavier (3-seed) – Lost in Sweet 16
- 2022 Arkansas (4-seed) – Lost in Elite Eight
- 2023 Gonzaga (3-seed) – Lost in Elite Eight
- 2024 North Carolina (1-seed) – Lost in Sweet 16
As expected, some duds are in there, but that’s a solid production run for these uptempo teams. Of these 15 teams, 12 survived the first weekend, and while half of those teams lost in the Sweet 16, it is worth noting that two of those defeats came in a game opposing another team that qualified for this list.
The cut-off for that graphic above was 71.3 possessions per game—the top contenders in this year’s field (by seed) reaching that threshold:
- Alabama (two-seed, power ranked eighth overall)
- Illinois (six-seed, power ranked 25th overall)
- Kentucky (three-seed, ranked third overall)
- Teams who just missed the cut: Florida, Michigan, and Maryland
If you want to research on a more granular basis, 10 of 12 teams were seeded on the five-line or better while ranking at least half-of-standard-deviation ahead of average in pace and were top-30 in the field in rebound rate.
Mo with the SWAT
📺: @BigTenNetwork pic.twitter.com/mKUmbZbRuw
— Illinois Men’s Basketball (@IlliniMBB) March 14, 2025
Run-and-rebound.
It’s rare to get a team to blend tempo with tenacity, but a few teams do both at an impressive level, regardless of seeding:
- Alabama (two-seed, power ranked eighth overall)
- Illinois (six-seed, power ranked 25th overall)
- Florida (one-seed, power ranked 11th overall)
- Gonzaga (eight-seed, power ranked second overall)
- St. John’s (two-seed, power ranked 47th overall)
Now, let’s look at the other side of this in-the-weeds discussion that could help give you the type of minor edge it takes to win your bracket pool.
March Madness: Is Playing Without Pace a Good Thing?
Same thing as above, just in reverse—here’s a snapshot of the 15 slowest tournament teams over the past four seasons that were on the five-line or better and how they fared.
- 2024 Wisconsin (5-seed) – Lost in Round 1
- 2023 Tennessee (4-seed) – Lost in Sweet 16
- 2022 Providence (4-seed) – Lost in Sweet 16
- 2021 Villanova (5-seed) – Lost in Sweet 16
- 2023 Duke (5-seed) – Lost in Round 2
- 2022 Saint Mary’s (5-seed) – Lost in Round 2
- 2022 Houston (5-seed) – Lost in Elite Eight
- 2023 Houston (1-seed) – Lost in Sweet 16
- 2023 Purdue (1-seed) – Lost in Round 1
- 2024 Houston (1-seed) – Lost in Sweet 16
- 2024 Saint Mary’s (5-seed) – Lost in Round 1
- 2023 Saint Mary’s (5-seed) – Lost in Round 2
- 2022 Villanova (2-seed) – Lost in Final Four
- 2023 Virginia (4-seed) – Lost in Round 1
- 2021 Virginia (4-seed) – Lost in Round 1
There were some big winners on that list, but these teams (the ceiling was 66 possessions) largely underachieved based on what we saw from those forcing tempo, with the majority of them failing to reach the second week.
It’s time to drill down further.
Of the nine teams who were seeded on the five-line or better while ranking at least half-of-standard-deviation ahead of below in pace and were outside the top-30 in the field in assist-to-turnover rate, only two survived to play in the Sweet 16 (interestingly enough, San Diego State in each of the past two seasons being the exception).
Like the study above, falling into this exact box isn’t an overly common occurrence, but there are a few that fit the general profile (poor passing slow teams):
- Texas A&M (four-seed, power ranked 54th overall)
- Houston (one-seed, power ranked 29th overall)
- Louisville (eight-seed, power ranked 32nd overall)
- Clemson (five seed, power ranked 28th overall)
Some teams are exceptional in what they do, but the ability to explode the possession count and limit second chances has proven to be the profile to back when picking a team to win multiple games.
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Does that mean a methodical team can’t get it done? Of course not, but I’m putting my money where my mouth is with an Aggie fade and looking for a level of optimism from an opponent to eliminate the other names on that list above.
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