Many college basketball analysts expected big things from the Big 12 prior to the season; although the conference as a whole hasn’t been as strong as expected, there are still numerous teams that are strong candidates to make a run in the NCAA Tournament.
But before that, the Big 12 tournament will take place at T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, MO, where one winner will be crowned as the champion of the conference.
Projecting the 2025 Big 12 Tournament
The format of the Big 12 Tournament has changed this year due to the addition of multiple programs. The new edition featuring 16 teams ensures a guaranteed spot in the quarterfinals for the top four seeds. Seeds five through eight will receive a bye and be guaranteed a spot in the second round, while seeds 9-16 will battle it out in the first round.
What better way to prepare for the conference tournament than to forecast where these teams are projected to finish and run through a mock simulation of what it may look like?
Below, we’ll do that using Team Rank’s currently projected Big 12 conference tournament seeding.
First Round
No. 9 West Virginia Mountaineers vs. No. 16 Colorado Buffaloes
These teams met in early January, with the Mountaineers coming away with a 78-70 victory in Boulder, CO. West Virginia has been the definition of average in conference play, having not won two straight games in Big 12 play since Jan. 4.
The Buffaloes have been downright bad but have shown signs of life recently. They began conference play with 13 consecutive losses before winning two of their last three.
However, Colorado lacks the needed firepower to make a run as a low seed in the tournament, giving the Mountaineers a good chance of beating them for a second time this season.
No. 10 Kansas State Wildcats vs. No. 15 Arizona State Sun Devils
This matchup could prove interesting. The Sun Devils just went on the road and defeated the Wildcats 66-54 on Feb. 23 due to an 18-point effort from freshman forward Jayden Quaintance.
That snapped a six-game losing streak for Arizona State and continued a three-game losing streak for the Wildcats. Kansas State looked like one of the hottest teams in the nation just weeks ago, but have fallen back to Earth since.
Whoever is waiting for the winner of this game should feel good about their chances against either the Sun Devils or Wildcats.
No. 11 Utah Utes vs. No. 14 Oklahoma State Cowboys
The Cowboys won the first meeting between these by nine points after a strong first-half effort. Since that game, the Cowboys have gone 2-4, while the Utes have gone 3-3.
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These teams may seem evenly matched in a head-to-head matchup, but the Utes have shown to have a higher ceiling with upset victories over the Kansas Jayhawks and BYU Cougars.
If Utah can survive this one, they may be a candidate to make a run through the tournament behind the streaky good shooting of senior guard Gabe Madsen.
No. 12 Cincinnati Bearcats vs. No. 13 UCF Knights
Both these teams have disappointed during conference play, with neither team being able to put it all together. The Knights endured a seven-game losing streak before recently defeating Utah. Cincinnati put together three straight wins in early February before losing two straight.
This would be their second matchup; the Bearcats won a high-scoring affair on Feb. 5. They’d likely be the favorite in this one, but not by much.
Second Round
No. 8 TCU Horned Frogs vs. No. 9 West Virginia/No. 16 Colorado
TCU handled both of these teams to begin the month of February, making this a favorable draw for the Horned Frogs. After a rough start to conference play, head coach Jamie Dixon’s squad has won five of their last seven games, catapulting themselves into the top half of the Big 12 standings.
West Virginia’s Javon Small fills up the stat sheet led by his 18.2 ppg — he has the ability to catch fire over a stretch of games, giving the Mountaineers a chance to make a run in the tournament.
But it wouldn’t come easy against this Horned Frogs team that’s playing their best basketball down the stretch.
No. 7 Baylor Bears vs. No. 10 Kansas State/No. 15 Arizona State
The Bears harbor hopes of making the NCAA Tournament — they’ll need a strong showing in the Big 12 Tournament to make those hopes come true. A strong start to conference games has fallen off to a 3-4 record in February.
However, freshman sensation V.J. Edgecome has assumed a bigger responsibility for the offense as of late, giving Baylor a high ceiling. They are prone to upset losses however, as evidenced by them falling to the Buffaloes on Feb. 22.
Neither Kansas State nor Arizona State is particularly strong, however, making it likely the Bears would advance in this scenario.
No. 6 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 11 Utah Utes/No. 14 Oklahoma State
The Jayhawks have not lived up to expectations this season, causing them to play in the second round of the conference tournament. This draw for Kansas would elicit mixed feelings; they just crushed the Cowboys by 32 points but lost to Utah by seven earlier in February after a 24-point performance by Madsen.
A largely pro-Kansas crowd — instead of the game taking place in Salt Lake City — could change things, but surely the Jayhawks would hope for a different team to have to play in their first Big 12 tournament game.
No. 5 BYU Cougars vs. No. 12 Cincinnati vs. No. 13 UCF
The Cougars should feel good going into a meeting with either of these teams. BYU has won four games in a row, highlighted by upset victories over the Jayhawks and Arizona Wildcats.
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Add that to the fact that they’ve beaten the Bearcats and Knights this season, and head coach Kevin Young should feel good about his team’s chances of advancing to the quarterfinals, further improving their resume ahead of the NCAA Tournament.
Top 4 Seeds
No. 1 Houston Cougars
The Cougars have gone 19-1 since they suffered their third loss in the seventh game of the season. The alarm bells were ringing — but have since been silenced as senior point guard L.J. Cryer has headlined an extremely balanced offensive attack in addition to tenacious defense.
They shouldn’t be afraid of any team that they’ll face, but it is worth noting that they haven’t had a truly convincing win against the other Big 12 players, with each coming within double digits and two coming in overtime.
But if they can go the distance, Houston would have a terrific case of securing a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
No. 2 Texas Tech Red Raiders
The only team in the conference to beat the Cougars — despite the early exit due to injury to star forward J.T. Toppin — the Red Raiders have had an excellent season to this point.
Toppin, a sophomore, has been arguably the best transfer in college basketball after spending his freshman season with the New Mexico Lobos. He’s a dynamic scorer, illustrated by his 41-point effort against the Sun Devils on Feb. 12.
It’s not just the Toppin show, however. Three more Texas Tech players average in double figures, rounding out a dangerous team to keep an eye on.
No. 3 Iowa State Cyclones
The Cyclones have lived up to high expectations placed on them coming into the season. They have an extremely balanced roster headlined by the vigorous scoring of guard Curtis Jones, who was known as one of the best bench scorers in the sport before being inserted in the starting lineup in January.
Now, Jones is simply one of the best scorers in the country. Four other teammates average double digit scoring, highlighted their egalitarian offensive attack.
They’re no slouch on the other end of the floor; in fact, Iowa State is one of the top defensive teams in the conference.
No. 4 Arizona Wildcats
This Wildcats team is an extremely entertaining watch led by fifth-year guard Caleb Love, who fills up the stat sheet while providing an intense, emotional style of play. Arizona has stumbled of late, losing three of their past four outings.
KEEP READING: Big Ten Tournament Projections
However, they have four games left to right the ship prior to the conference tournament, with two of those coming against the Cyclones and Jayhawks. How they fare in those contests will illustrate just how much noise this squad can make in the Big 12 Tournament.
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