The Michigan State Spartans will visit the Illinois Fighting Illini, hoping to get back in the win column after losing three of their last four games. The Illini have won two in a row and are aiming for a late-season surge up the Big Ten standings.
This is the second matchup of the season between these teams, with the Spartans gutting out an 80-78 victory on Jan. 19 in East Lansing. Can Illinois even the season series, or will the Spartans complete a sweep?
Find out below as we make a prediction for this highly anticipated rematch and break down the spread, total, and moneyline bets.
Michigan State vs. Illinois Betting Preview
All Michigan State vs. Illinois odds are from Fanduel Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Feb. 15, 2025.
- Spread
Illinois -6.5 - CSN Spread
Michigan State -3.5 - Moneyline
Illinois -270, Michigan State +220 - Over/Under
156.5 points - Game Time
Saturday, Feb. 15, 8 p.m. ET - Location
State Farm Center | Champaign, IL - How To Watch
FOX
Michigan State enters with a 19-5 overall record and a 10-3 mark in conference play, good for third in the Big Ten. The Spartans have been strong against the spread (ATS) this season, covering 14 of 24 games. They’ve been even better in conference play at 8-4-1 ATS, though they have failed to cover in three of their last four games.
The Spartans are a solid defensive team, which is reflected in their over/under record—only nine of their games have gone over the listed total, including just five of 13 in Big Ten play. With their recent struggles, the under has hit in four of their last five outings.
Illinois enters with a 9-6 Big Ten record (seventh in the conference) and a 17-8 overall record. The Illini are 12-13 ATS this season, including 6-9 in conference play. However, they hold an 8-6 ATS record at home.
Illinois boasts one of the most potent offenses in the nation, ranking fourth in points per game. Fifteen of their 25 games have gone over the total, including 66% of conference matchups. Five of their last seven games have also hit the over.
Michigan State vs. Illinois CSN Power Rankings Line
Our proprietary rankings have Michigan State favored by -3.5, a stark contrast to Vegas’ line of Illinois -6.5. Examining where each team stands in our power rankings helps explain the discrepancy.
While the Illini rank No. 31, the Spartans hold the No. 10 spot despite dropping two places in the last week. Clearly, our metrics suggest the betting advantage lies with Michigan State, even on the road.
Prediction for Michigan State vs. Illinois
This is an intriguing matchup that represents a potential crossroads for both teams.
Illinois has won two straight and is looking to climb the Big Ten standings as the season nears its conclusion. But can the Illini meet expectations as 6.5-point favorites?
Michigan State, still ranked No. 11 nationally, needs to regain form before March. That could be challenging without an elite go-to scorer, something the Spartans lack.
They are an extremely balanced team, led by senior guard Jaden Akins, who averages 13.4 points per game. Freshman point guard Jeremy Fears Jr. leads the team with 6.0 assists per game, an impressive mark for a first-year player, but his scoring has been inconsistent—he has reached double digits in just one of his last seven games.
Junior forward Jaxon Kohler leads the team in rebounding at 7.8 per game. Meanwhile, freshman guard Jase Richardson, son of former NBA veteran Jason Richardson, has emerged as a key contributor.
Richardson scored a season-high 29 points against Oregon last Saturday, flashing elite shot-making ability and dynamic athleticism. His scoring punch could be crucial if Michigan State hopes to secure a road victory.
It won’t be easy, as Illinois is stacked with talent.
MORE: Kasparas Jakucionis Scouting Report
Freshman point guard Kasparas Jakucionis, a Lithuanian native, does it all for the Illini, averaging 16.0 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 5.2 assists per game. He’s expected to be a top-five pick in the upcoming NBA Draft.
Fellow freshman Will Riley, a former five-star recruit, has found his rhythm, averaging 19.0 points per game over his last five outings. Sophomore center Tomislav Ivisic (7-foot-1) is a force inside, averaging 13.1 points and 8.5 rebounds per game. His ability to stretch defenses—he hit four 3-pointers in Illinois’ last game—makes him a game-changer offensively.
Best Bets and Final Score Prediction
Both teams are strong, making it difficult to pick a winner. However, the value on Michigan State at +220 is hard to ignore. Our metrics suggest the line should be closer to Illinois -1.5 or -2.5.
Taking Michigan State +6.5 looks like a solid play. The Spartans’ defense is tough, but Illinois’ firepower could be too much to contain for a second time.
Jakucionis is likely to control the pace of the game, turning it into a high-scoring, up-tempo contest. The over on 156.5 points is a strong bet.
Additionally, Jakucionis’ player prop line is set at 15.5 points with even odds. Given that he has scored 24 points in back-to-back games, seemingly returning to form after a cold stretch, the over is worth hammering.
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If Richardson replicates his performance against Oregon, Michigan State has a real shot at winning outright. However, assuming he doesn’t go off again, I’ll take Michigan State to cover but Illinois to pull out a close home win.
Picks: Michigan State +6.5, Over 156.5 points, Kasparas Jakucionis Over 15.5 points
Prediction: Illinois 83, Michigan State 79
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