The goal of every team in college basketball is to make it to the NCAA Tournament. Each year, there are teams that are deserving of making it — but for whatever reason, are left on the outside looking in by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee. It’s bracketology season, so we’re looking at four teams on the bubble.
We’ll take a look at four of those teams that could potentially be in that position — or just barely make it in. The bubble is not a place any team wants to be on Selection Sunday, but that’s where each of these teams is currently positioned. Let’s look at four teams on bubble watch.
4 Teams Currently On the Bubble in Men’s College Hoops
The NCAA Tournament is fast approaching — Selection Sunday on March 16 is roughly seven weeks away. It’s time to take stock of potential teams on the bubble of making the tournament at this point in the season.
I found four teams that still have work to do to secure a spot if the season were to end today using various points of data: overall record, conference record, head-to-head matchups, NET Rankings, remaining strength of schedule, and the all-important eye-test.
We’ll start with a perennial competitor in March that’s at risk of missing out of the Big Dance.
North Carolina Tar Heels (13-8, 6-3 ACC)
The Tar Heels find themselves in unfamiliar territory, having to further solidify their resume down the stretch of the season in order to guarantee an NCAA Tournament berth.
North Carolina is 40th in NET Rankings despite a 1-7 record against Quad 1 opponents, showing a lack of ability to defeat superior teams. A combined 12-1 record against the rest has kept them afloat.
MORE: What Are NET Rankings?
The ACC is enduring a down year compared to recent years — in 2024, nine teams made the tournament. This season, no more than six teams are expected to make the tournament. With the continued emergence of various SEC and Big Ten teams, that number may be even lower depending on how it all shakes out.
The Tar Heels are tied for fifth in the conference with the Stanford Cardinal and SMU Mustangs. They should have an opportunity to rack up some wins in the back half of their schedule — of their 11 games remaining, six are against teams in the bottom ten in the ACC standings.
Two important rivalry games against the Duke Blue Devils loom as well — a win in either would go a long way towards strengthening North Carolina’s resume.
The Tar Heels will likely need to have a good showing the ACC tournament, picking up more wins against quality opponents. Assuming they put themselves in position to claim a tournament bid with a strong finish to the regular-season, an early exit in the conference tournament could spell disaster.
San Diego State Aztecs (13-5, 6-3, MWC)
San Diego State has reached the NCAA Tournament in each of the last four seasons, advancing to the National championship game before losing to the UConn Huskies in 2023.
Two seasons later, they’re fighting for a spot in the tourney. Ranked 42nd in NET Rankings, they present a solid 3-3 record against Quad 1 opponents, including a key victory against the No. 6 Houston Cougars in late November.
A loss to the 11-9 UNLV Rebels — at home — hurts the Aztec’s resume, as does their remaining strength of schedule. While the relatively easy schedule to finish the season presents opportunities for wins, more uncharacteristic losses could sink their NET Ranking.
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The Mountain West sent six teams to the dance a year ago; this season, that number will almost assuredly be lower. San Diego State is currently fourth in the conference, potentially right on the cutoff.
With a strong finish to the regular-season, the Aztecs should pass over the 20-win mark. Making it to the semi-finals of the conference tournament would be more than ideal to secure a spot in the NCAA Tournament — a championship game berth or victory would take the anticipation away, giving SDSU the opportunity to earn their fifth straight tournament bid.
Oklahoma Sooners (15-4, 2-4 SEC)
Despite a 2-4 record in the SEC, the Sooners sport a 4-3 record against Quad 1 opponents, helping slot them into the 47th spot in the NET Rankings.
An undefeated 13-0 record in non-conference included key victories against the Arizona Wildcats and Michigan Wolverines. Four straight losses to begin conference play dampened expectations; but two straight wins have followed.
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They have the one of the toughest remaining schedules in the country — which could lead to either a collapse or an emergence. As it currently stands, they’ll face 10 ranked SEC foes in their final 12 games, a historic regular-season stretch.
How they fare over the next six weeks weeks will determine their fate come Selection Sunday on March 16. Winning four or five of the 10 games against ranked opponents and winning the remaining two would have them knocking on the door of double-digit Quad 1 victories ahead of the conference tournament.
It’s a known fact that the SEC is getting a large number of teams into the dance. The Big East conference made history when they sent 11 teams to the tournament in 2011 — but many believe the SEC has a good chance of breaking that record this season.
The Sooners sit in 12th place in the conference. They’ll be a team to keep an eye on as they begin their murderers row of opponents on Tuesday night against the No. 13 Texas A&M Aggies.
SMU Mustangs (15-5, 6-3 ACC)
The Mustangs are in a similar position as the Tar Heels. They’re tied in the conference and SMU is only four slots lower in NET Rankings, holding down the 44 spot.
Both have a lackluster Quad 1 record, with the Mustangs still winless at 0-4. They’ve taken care of business elsewhere on their schedule, going 15-1 against opponents in Quad 2 and below. The lone defeat came at the hands of the Butler Bulldogs on the road. Barring another devastating loss, it shouldn’t hurt their resume too much.
All of 11 of their remaining games are against unranked teams — if the Mustangs are able to put together a solid stretch of performances they’ll breeze by 20 wins and push the 25-win mark prior to the ACC Tournament.
Much like the teams above, the conference tournament may be the make-or-break time for SMU. A solid yet unspectacular finish to the regular-season coupled with an early exit in the ACC tournament could leave the fate of the Mustangs up to the Selection Committee.
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