The outcome of a bowl game can redefine a season and shape the narrative around the coming offseason. Both the Kansas State Wildcats and Rutgers Scarlet Knights had high hopes for their 2024 seasons, largely due to their triumphs during bowl season last year.
But a loss in the Rate Bowl could seal 2024 as a down year. The winner, however, will have momentum through the offseason. Find out which way we lean in this Rutgers vs. Kansas State Prediction.
Rutgers vs. Kansas State Rate Bowl Betting Preview
All Rutgers vs. Kansas State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Kansas State -4.5 - Spread
Kansas State -7 - Moneyline
Kansas State -258, Rutgers +210 - Over/Under
50.5 points - Game Time
Thursday, Dec. 26, 5:30 p.m. ET - Location
Chase Field | Phoenix - How To Watch
ESPN
While both Rutgers and Kansas State have a few players entering the transfer portal, neither roster is in bad shape heading into the Rate Bowl. In fact, neither team will be lacking its stars. Accordingly, there hasn’t been much line movement compared to other games.
The only real story of interest regarding potential player or scheme changes is that Rutgers defensive coordinator Joe Harasymiak has moved to become the head coach of the UMass Minutemen. Rutgers has yet to replace him.
Rutger’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is slightly higher on the Scarlet Knights, making them 4.5-point underdogs. That translates to a winning probability of 36.9%.
- vs. Kansas State: 36.9%
Kansas State’s Winning Probability
On the flip side, the Wildcats are slight favorites, with a winning probability of 63.1%. Kansas State has played well in bowls in the past and, on paper, the Wildcats are the better team.
- vs. Rutgers: 63.1%
Prediction for Rutgers vs. Kansas State
Some fans might not think bowl games matter as much, but postseason performances can have huge ripple effects. Just ask Kansas State’s Avery Johnson, who won the Pop-Tarts Bowl MVP in his second-career start last season, a performance that solidified the Wildcats’ decision not to push to keep Will Howard.
Johnson had his ups and downs this season, but he’s still one of the most talented quarterbacks in the country. And in a one-game bowl sample size, he’s a good bet to go off in the Rate Bowl.
Unfortunately for the Rutgers defense, he’s not the player I’d be most scared of on the Kansas State offense. DJ Giddens was key for the Wildcats this season. The Wildcats go as he goes, as they’re 6-1 when he runs for 100 yards and 2-3 when he doesn’t.
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He’s the engine that makes the whole operation run. On Thursday, he might run … a lot.
During the month of October, a Rutgers defense that struggled against the run all season collapsed. The Scarlet Knights struggled against every team that tried to run the ball consistently. The only thing that saved them down the stretch was that teams just didn’t run the ball against them.
The Scarlet Knights allowed five yards per rush, 103rd in the country, but only saw 29.8 attempts per game, eighth-fewest in the country.
Unless Chris Klieman outsmarts himself, I expect the Wildcats to pound the rock and exploit the holes in the Rutgers defense. Between Giddens and the dual-threat Johnson, Kansas State’s offense should have plenty of running room.
Greg Schiano’s team just doesn’t have the horses to keep up, and if forced to push, I expect Athan Kaliakmanis to make a mistake or two.
Rutgers’ lack of explosiveness on offense already puts the Scarlet Knights at a disadvantage due to limited possessions. Turnovers would all but end the Scarlet Knights’ hopes.
I think Kansas State pulls away late for a comfortable win. The question I have is whether they’ll get enough help from the Scarlet Knights to push this over the total.
Prediction: Kansas State 31, Rutgers 17
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