The Big 12 is absolute chaos right now. If this were NFL RedZone, we’d be deep in the Big 12 Witching Hour. With the Colorado Buffaloes falling to the Kansas Jayhawks and the Arizona State Sun Devils pulling off an upset against the BYU Cougars, the race for the top two spots in the Big 12 Championship Game is officially down to four teams.
Here’s how the odds shake out heading into a high-stakes Week 14.
Big 12 Championship Game Odds
Ahead of Week 14, let’s look at the road map for each team and use the CFN Football Playoff Meter as a guide to see who is most likely to make (and win) the title game.
So, here’s what we did, we locked in the results following Colorado and BYU’s losses as well as the rest of the results that came from Week 13.
We then simulated the final week of the Big 12 regular season 10,000 times, locking in with those current results and simulating the final weekend of action in the process. Here’s how each team fared and an explanation of how we got there further down.
Big 12 Championship Game Winning Probability
- Arizona State 40.32%
- Colorado 22.60%
- BYU 21.40%
- Iowa State 9.74%
- TCU 4.71%
- Kansas 0.28%
- Kansas State 0.12%
- Texas Tech <0.01%
- Baylor <0.01%
- West Virginia <0.01%
So here’s what we’re looking at for the Big 12 Championship: four teams vying for two spots. And yet, with Colorado and BYU losing, this technically keeps the five three-loss teams mathematically alive in the race to the Big 12.
We’ll get into the exact road maps for each scenario below the standings.
Big 12 Tiebreaking Scenarios
If all four teams win in Week 14, they’d end the season tied with two conference losses each. Here’s how the tiebreakers would play out for these four teams in that scenario.
The Big 12’s tiebreaking rules for multi-team ties clarify that if one team emerges as the winner of a tiebreaker, the remaining tied teams reset to the top of the tiebreaking process. With that framework in mind, let’s break it down.
First, the records of the four teams would be evaluated based on winning percentage in games played among the tied teams. If all teams haven’t faced each other, but one team defeated all others they did play, that team would advance to the championship game.
- BYU: Lost to Arizona State, did not play Iowa State or Colorado
- Colorado: Did not play BYU, Arizona State, or Iowa State
- Arizona State: Beat BYU, did not play Colorado or Iowa State
- Iowa State: Did not play BYU, Arizona State, or Colorado
The head-to-head criteria fail to identify a clear winner in this scenario. The process then moves to the next tiebreaker: comparing records based on winning percentage against all common conference opponents.
The shared conference opponents for these four teams are Kansas State, UCF, Utah, and Kansas.
BYU’s opponents:
Kansas State (W)
Baylor (W)
Arizona (W)
Oklahoma State (W)
UCF (W)
Utah (W)
Kansas (L)
Arizona State (L)
Houston (W *in this scenario)
BYU’s common opponent winning percentage: 3-1
Colorado’s opponents:
Baylor (W)
UCF (W)
Kansas State (L)
Arizona (W)
Cincinnati (W)
Utah (W)
Kansas (L)
Oklahoma State (W *in this scenario)
Colorado’s common opponent winning percentage: 2-2
Arizona State’s opponents:
Texas Tech (L)
Kansas (W)
Utah (W)
Cincinnati (L)
Oklahoma State (W)
UCF (W)
Kansas State (W)
BYU (W)
Arizona (W *in this scenario)
Arizona State’s common opponent winning percentage: 4-0
Iowa State’s opponents:
Houston (W)
Baylor (W)
West Virginia (W)
UCF (W)
Texas Tech (L)
Kansas (L)
Cincinnati (W)
Utah (W)
Kansas State (W *in this scenario)
Iowa State’s common opponent winning percentage: 3-1
So Arizona State would be the first to clinch from this scenario if all four teams win in Week 14 by beating all four of the common Big 12 opponents. However, that wouldn’t be the case if BYU were to lose to Houston due to similar tiebreaking effects.
If Arizona State, Iowa State, and Colorado are tied atop the standings, the common opponents come into play. Those three teams have played UCF, Kansas State, Cincinnati, Utah, and Kansas together.
Colorado’s record: 3-2; Iowa State’s record: 4-1; Arizona State’s record: 4-1. Iowa State and Arizona State would still meet.
Back to the four-team tie scenario now, though:
The tiebreakers would then reset and go back up to the top of the tiebreaking procedures with Colorado, BYU, and Iowa State. Similarly, you can work all the way down to the conference record of common opponents, and you get a similar 3-1 record for Iowa State and BYU to go with Colorado’s 2-2 record against common opponents.
You then have to take it to the next tiebreaker, which is their record(s) against the highest ranked (placed) common opponent and move down the list that way. The highest-placed common opponents are ranked like this:
- Kansas State (Iowa State would have beaten in this scenario; BYU won, Colorado lost)
- Kansas (all three lost to Kansas)
- UCF (all three won against UCF)
- Utah (all three would have won against Utah in this scenario)
In this scenario, Colorado would be eliminated via the loss to Kansas State with BYU and Iowa State moving on back to the top of the tiebreakers.
The last tiebreaker to attend to would be the record of all conference opponents among tied teams.
BYU’s opponents:
Kansas State 5-3
Baylor 5-3
Arizona 2-6
Oklahoma State 0-8
UCF 2-6
Utah 1-7
Kansas 4-4
Arizona State 6-2
Houston 3-5
BYU’s opponent Big 12 winning percentage: 28-44
Colorado’s opponents:
Baylor 5-3
UCF 2-6
Kansas State 5-3
Arizona 2-6
Cincinnati 3-5
Texas Tech 5-3
Utah 1-7
Kansas 4-4
Oklahoma State 0-8
Colorado’s opponent Big 12 winning percentage: 27-45
Iowa State’s opponents:
Houston 3-5
Baylor 5-3
West Virginia 5-3
UCF 2-6
Texas Tech 5-3
Kansas 4-4
Cincinnati 3-5
Utah 1-7
Kansas State 5-3
Iowa State’s opponent Big 12 winning percentage: 31-39
Iowa State would get in. After the action from Week 13 was factored in, BYU nor Colorado can catch up to Iowa State in this tiebreaking scenario, no matter the results in Week 14.
That means, if Iowa State wins against Kansas State, no matter what, they qualify for the Big 12 Championship Game.
So, there you have it. If all four teams that are currently tied win out in Week 14, the Big 12 Championship Game would be Iowa State vs. Arizona State, with Arizona State earning ‘home-team status’ as the first-place team.
Colorado’s Big 12 Championship Road Map
- Defeat Oklahoma State
- Two combined losses by Arizona State, Iowa State, or BYU
But that’s not all. Colorado can still get in with a loss if the following scenarios happen:
- Colorado loss + Iowa State loss + Arizona State loss
- Colorado loss + Iowa State loss + BYU loss
- Colorado loss + Arizona State loss + BYU loss
Colorado’s winning probability the remaining way:
- vs. Oklahoma State: 89.8%
- Theoretical Big 12 Championship Game vs. Arizona State: 50.8%
BYU’s Big 12 Championship Road Map
- Defeat Houston
- An Arizona State or Iowa State loss
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The Cougars need just one loss from Arizona State or Iowa State in Week 14 to clinch their berth in the Big 12 Championship Game. And all hope is not lost if they lose either.
If BYU were to lose to Houston in Week 14 but still want to make the Big 12 Championship Game, they would have had to have the following events happen prior to kickoff as they are the late game:
- Iowa State & Arizona State lose
- Iowa State & Colorado lose
- Arizona State & Colorado lose
It’s not as clear cut as that, as it would go to a massive tiebreaker with whoever finishes with a three-loss conference record for one spot, but BYU would technically still be alive.
- vs. Houston: 87.8%
- Theoretical Big 12 Championship Game vs. Arizona State: 49.4%
Arizona State’s Big 12 Championship Road Map
- Defeat Arizona
By winning against archrival Arizona, the Sun Devils would punch their ticket based on the multiple tiebreaking scenarios listed above.
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With a win, here’s how ASU’s opponents would be factored:
- If Arizona State wins and Colorado wins + BYU & Iowa State lose, it’s Sun Devils vs. Buffaloes
- If Arizona State wins and Iowa State wins + BYU &Colorado lose, it’s Sun Devils vs. Cyclones
- If Arizona State wins and BYU wins + Colorado & Iowa State lose, it’s Sun Devils vs. Cougars
- If Arizona State wins and BYU, Colorado, and Iowa State win, it’s Sun Devils vs. Cyclones
If ASU loses, they’re not out of it, but it would come down to how many teams factor into the tiebreaking scenarios with three losses in the conference.
Arizona State’s winning probability the remaining way:
- @ Arizona: 65.1%
- Theoretical Big 12 Championship Game vs. Colorado: 49.2%
Iowa State’s Big 12 Championship Road Map
- Defeat Kansas State
The Cyclones are in with a win as they would own the tiebreakers over both BYU and Colorado. But if they lose, much like all the other teams above them here, they’re not out of it.
They would only be eliminated if the following events happen:
- Iowa State loss + Arizona State & BYU win
- Iowa State loss + Arizona State win & Colorado win
- Iowa State loss + BYU win & Colorado win
If those scenarios don’t hold true, they’re in or at least tied with the teams with three losses to a new, multi-team tiebreaker.
- vs. Kansas State: 57.4%
- Theoretical Big 12 Championship Game vs. Arizona State: 42.6%
Baylor’s Big 12 Championship Road Map
First off, Baylor has to beat Kansas in Week 14. Then, and only then, can we talk about what the Bears can have happen to get into the championship game.
What we can do, however, is list what the Bears must avoid happening in order to stay in contention. Baylor can’t have the following scenarios happen:
- Iowa State win + Arizona State win
- Iowa State win + BYU win
- Iowa State win + Colorado win
- Arizona State win + BYU win
- Arizona State win + Colorado win
- BYU win + Colorado win
Texas Tech’s Big 12 Championship Road Map
In conjunction with West Virginia’s road map just below here, the Texas Tech Red Raiders have to win against WVU in order to stay in contention. They also have to have some help around them in order to get to the game.
Here’s what Texas Tech can’t have happen:
- Iowa State win + Arizona State win
- Iowa State win + BYU win
- Iowa State win + Colorado win
- Arizona State win + BYU win
- Arizona State win + Colorado win
- BYU win + Colorado win
West Virginia’s Big 12 Championship Road Map
Beat Texas Tech and hope for chaos if you’re a WVU fan.
In order to make the Big 12 Championship Game tiebreaking scenarios, WVU would need to avoid the following events:
- Iowa State win + Arizona State win
- Iowa State win + BYU win
- Iowa State win + Colorado win
- Arizona State win + BYU win
- Arizona State win + Colorado win
- BYU win + Colorado win
Kansas State’s Big 12 Championship Road Map
Kansas State beating Iowa State would trigger the potential for BYU or Colorado to get in against Arizona State. Any losses by a combination of two of the other teams, however, cause at least a four-team tie for second place given the way every game has to break out.
That means, if Kansas State beats Iowa State with two others in the top four in Week 14, the Big 12 will come down to a massive tiebreaking scenario for the second-place spot, or even first place.
Kansas State would need to avoid the following scenarios, however, even with a win against Iowa State or they’d be eliminated:
- Iowa State loss + Arizona State & BYU win
- Iowa State loss + Arizona State win & Colorado win
- Iowa State loss + BYU win & Colorado win
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