What a weekend it was in the SEC. With the Texas A&M Aggies, Alabama Crimson Tide, and Ole Miss Rebels falling on the same Saturday, one might think that the race for the SEC Championship is a bit clearer now.
Well, you’d be wrong because we’ve got a litany of tiebreaking procedures to go through. Let’s get to it.
SEC Championship Game Odds
Using the CFN Football Playoff Meter as a guide to see who is most likely to make (and win) the title game, the SEC Championship Game odds are here before Vegas’ lines are.
- Georgia: 49.47%
- Texas: 41.66%
- Texas A&M: 8.60%
- Tennessee: 0.27%
We locked in the results from each game in the SEC through Week 13. Then, we simulated the final week of the SEC season over 10,000 times, locking in with those current results and simulating the final two weeks of action in the process. That gave us the SEC Championship winning probability for each team.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Georgia made it on all 100% of simulations, while Texas made the game on over 75% of the simulations.
Updated SEC Standings
- Texas Longhorns 6-1 SEC (10-1 overall)
- Georgia Bulldogs 6-2 (9-2)
- Tennessee Volunteers 5-2 (9-2)
- Texas A&M Aggies 5-2 (8-3)
- South Carolina Gamecocks 5-3 (8-3)
- Alabama Crimson Tide 4-3 (8-3)
- LSU Tigers 4-3 (7-4)
- Missouri Tigers 4-3 (8-3)
- Ole Miss Rebels 4-3 (8-3)
- Florida Gators 4-4 (6-5)
- Arkansas Razorbacks 3-4 (6-5)
- Vanderbilt Commodores 3-4 (6-5)
- Oklahoma Sooners 2-5 (6-5)
- Auburn Tigers 2-5 (5-6)
- Kentucky Wildcats 1-7 (4-7)
- Mississippi State Bulldogs 0-7 (2-9)
The race is on for the top spot with Texas having the advantage there. Let’s get into the tiebreaking scenarios based on each result that could happen.
If Texas Beats Texas A&M
The Longhorns would play Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, regardless of what Tennessee does vs. Vanderbilt
If Texas A&M Beats Texas
The Aggies would play Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, regardless of what Tennessee does vs. Vanderbilt
In reality, the way the tiebreakers are set up, Tennessee may not actually be mathematically involved in these situations whatsoever in Week 14. However, we’ll await confirmation from the SEC on that one.
Texas’ SEC Championship Road Map
Texas’ road map to the SEC Championship is the easiest of the four teams. They win and they’re in, no questions asked, no tiebreakers needed. With a loss, however, that’s where things get dicey because of the tiebreaking procedures.
Travel down to Texas A&M’s road map to figure that one out.
Right now, the Longhorns can focus on playing themselves into the SEC Championship Game with a win vs. A&M.
- @ Texas A&M: 64.9%
- Texas’ SEC Championship Winning Probability: 41.66%
Georgia’s SEC Championship Road Map
Despite a couple of slip-ups this season, both of the teams that Georgia lost to are officially out of contention, lessening the worry about any head-to-head tiebreakers. With Alabama and Ole Miss now out of the picture, no matter the result of Texas and Texas A&M, it’s clear that the Bulldogs are set to be in the SEC Championship Game now.
MORE: Understand the Full SEC Tiebreaking Procedures Ahead of Week 13
Here’s how this worked out.
In Georgia’s case, the second A&M lost to Auburn in Week 13, it clinched their placement in the title game.
That’s because Georgia can only be tied with Tennessee singularly for second place (meaning A&M losses to Texas), or they’d be tied with a combination of Texas, Texas A&M, and/or Tennessee (if A&M beats Texas).
Georgia beat Tennessee head-to-head earlier this season, therefore giving the Bulldogs the head-to-head tiebreaking advantage over the Vols here.
If they tied with Texas, A&M, and/or Tennessee, it would skip the head-to-head tiebreaker as these four teams didn’t complete a round robin, and move to record against common opponents.
- Georgia, Texas, and Texas A&M common opponents
- Mississippi State (all three won)
Florida (all three won)
- Mississippi State (all three won)
- Georgia, Texas, Texas A&M, and Tennessee common opponents
- Mississippi State (all four won)
Florida (all four won)
- Mississippi State (all four won)
This then skips you down to tiebreaker No. 4, which is SEC opponent’s in-conference winning percentage this season.
- Texas A&M SEC Opponent Conference Record: 28-30 (48.3%)
- Georgia SEC Opponent Conference Record: 26-32 (44.8%)
- Texas SEC Opponent Conference Record: 24-33 (42.1%)
- Tennessee SEC Opponent Conference Record: 23-36 (38.9%)
In this instance, A&M nets the first spot and the three teams (or two teams if Tennessee loses) that remained tied head to the top of the tiebreakers once again. No matter the results here, in this instance, Georgia beat both Texas and Tennessee in the regular season this year, meaning by stipulations set forth in the SEC tiebreakers, the Bulldogs would move on to face A&M.
- vs. Georgia Tech: 93.1%
- Georgia’s SEC Championship Winning Probability: 49.47%
Texas A&M’s SEC Championship Road Map
If you read above in the Georgia road map, you understand why A&M is not quite out of despite their loss to Auburn in Week 13. In fact, if they beat Texas in Week 14, they’re in. That’s because of the way the tiebreakers work, and also in doing so, they would knock Texas out of the SEC Championship Game all the same due to those same tiebreakers.
So, say A&M wins against Texas, that forces at least a three-way tie for two spots. If Tennessee wins, it’s a four-way tie, but the Vols are almost a non-factor here.
A&M, Texas, Georgia, and/or Tennessee would go down the list of tiebreakers until tiebreaking scenario No. 4 finally settled the dispute by combining each team’s conference opponent SEC winning percentage.
And as we see here, here is how this is settled right now:
- Texas A&M SEC Opponent Conference Record: 28-30 (48.3%)
- Georgia SEC Opponent Conference Record: 26-32 (44.8%)
- Texas SEC Opponent Conference Record: 24-33 (42.1%)
- Tennessee SEC Opponent Conference Record: 23-36 (38.9%)
That puts A&M into the Championship Game as the first-place seed as well. After battling out the remaining-team tiebreaker scenario, Georgia would subsequently join them in this situation.
- vs. Texas: 35.1%
- Texas A&M’s SEC Championship Winning Probability: 8.60%
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