ACC Championship Game Scenarios: SMU’s In, Miami’s Almost There, Clemson’s Almost Out

The SMU Mustangs punched their tickets to the ACC Championship Game, but who they’re set to play, we don’t quite know. That’s because Miami still has to win one more, even after beating Wake Forest in Week 13. Here’s how the ACC Championship Game scenarios can unfold after the action from Saturday.

ACC Championship Game Odds

The Vegas lines will be out soon enough. But we’ll get their latest ACC Championship odds after Week 13 using the CFN Football Playoff Meter as a guide to see who is most likely to make (and win) the title game.

So, here’s what we did: We locked in the results from Miami and SMU on Saturday and then simulated the rest of the ACC games in Weeks 13 and 14 to get our probabilities and projections below.

Here’s how each team fared and an explanation of how we got there further down.

ACC Championship Game Winning Probability

• SMU: 59.70%
• Miami: 23.67%
• Clemson: 7.42%

The numbers above are how many times each team made the ACC Championship Game and subsequently won the conference in the process. Only SMU, Miami, and Clemson are in contention at this point of the season.

MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor

The current standings are below, with the team road maps listed further below. Here’s how the table sits right now in the ACC.

Updated ACC Standings

1. SMU Mustangs: 7-0 (10-1 overall)
2. Clemson Tigers: 7-1 (8-2) *plays The Citadel still
3. Miami Hurricanes: 6-1 (10-1)
4. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: 5-3 (7-4)
5. Syracuse Orange: 4-3 (8-3)
6. Louisville Cardinals: 4-3 (6-4) *plays Pittsburgh still
7. Duke Blue Devils: 3-3 (7-3) *plays Virginia Tech still
8. Pittsburgh Panthers: 3-3 (7-3) *plays Louisville still
9. Virginia Tech Hokies: 3-3 (5-5) *plays Duke still
10. Boston College Eagles: 3-4 (6-5)
11. Virginia Cavaliers: 3-4 (5-6)
12. North Carolina Tar Heels: 2-4 (5-5)
13. Wake Forest Demon Deacons: 2-4 (4-6)
14. NC State Wolfpack: 2-5 (5-6)
15. Stanford Cardinal: 2-5 (3-7) *plays Cal still
16. California Golden Bears: 1-5 (5-5) *plays Stanford still
17. Florida State Seminoles: 1-7 (2-9)

ACC Championship Game Scenarios

With three teams vying for two spots, we’ll list the results necessary for each matchup that can happen in the ACC Championship Game:

SMU vs. Miami

The most likely scenario here as SMU has essentially clinched their spot with their victory over Virginia. For this game against Miami to happen, all the Hurricanes have to do is defeat Syracuse in the final game of the regular season. SMU still makes this game happen with a loss in Week 14, but both teams winning out is the easiest of methods.

SMU vs. Clemson

For Clemson to qualify for the ACC Championship Game now, they’re beholden on Miami losing to Syracuse in Week 14. With SMU winning against Virginia, Clemson now loses both tiebreaking scenarios to the Mustangs and Hurricanes.

Therefore, they need to hold second place outright. And they can only do that if Miami loses to Syracuse.

Miami vs. Clemson

This one is now officially impossible with SMU’s victory. That’s largely because of how the tiebreakers work and essentially because of Clemson’s loss to Louisville. There is no realm in which Clemson gets past Miami in a tiebreaking scenario, and they also miss out on the playoffs with an SMU loss and a three-way tie for first place, losing the tiebreaking scenarios to both SMU and Miami in that scenario.

SMU’s ACC Championship Road Map

SMU kept pace above Clemson and Miami with their win over Virginia, improving to 7-0 in conference play. They’ve now clinched their spot in the ACC Championship Game.

SMU can earn the ‘home-team’ status outright with a win over Cal in Week 14.

Here’s how this works:

Even with a loss, SMU ties Clemson. The Mustangs own the tiebreaker over Clemson by virtue of defeating Louisville (Clemson lost to Louisville). There are no other common opponents that these teams will have played and not had the same result against. Therefore, Clemson’s loss to Louisville knocks them from ACC Championship Game contention against SMU or Miami.

In their first year, SMU has clinched an appearance in the ACC Championship Game.

• vs. California: 79.9%
• Theoretical ACC Championship Game vs. Miami: 45.4%

Miami’s ACC Championship Road Map

As we said above, if Miami beats Syracuse in Week 14, they’re in. This comes, of course, after their hard-fought victory over Wake Forest in Week 13, which kept them tied with Clemson.

Now, a win against Syracuse keeps them tied with the Tigers, pushing the Hurricanes into the ACC Championship Game because Miami owns the tiebreaker over Clemson.

• @ Syracuse: 92.9%
• Theoretical ACC Championship Game vs. SMU: 54.6%

Clemson’s ACC Championship Road Map

It just got a bit easier for the Clemson Tigers. Not in actuality, but it got easier to understand.

The Tigers do not own the tiebreakers over SMU or Miami, and as such, they’ll need to hold second place outright in the ACC. That means Clemson needs Syracuse to defeat Miami in Week 14 to push the Tigers into the ACC Championship Game.

MORE: How Clemson Can Still Make the College Football Playoffs

Clemson can still make the playoffs as an at-large team, but the ACC Championship Game is out of reach if Miami wins over Syracuse.

• vs. South Carolina: 58.9%
• Theoretical ACC Championship Game vs. SMU: 55.6%

College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.