The Alabama Crimson Tide are still very much alive in the SEC Championship hunt this fall. With two games remaining, the Tide need to win out to get there. The tiebreaking scenarios make it .. less clear .. but it is possible for them to make the postseason.
Alabama’s SEC Championship Chances
After Week 12, the CFN Football Playoff Meter gives the Crimson TIde a 10.89% chance to make and win the SEC Championship. That is based on the fact that the CFN FPM gives Alabama a 76.62% chance to win out down the stretch.
Winning out would put ‘Bama in a tie with at least Georgia as a two-loss team and most likely with some more company.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Alabama’s chances at making the SEC Championship are heavily based on who they’re tied with in the tiebreaking scenarios.
How Can Alabama Make the SEC Championship Game?
It starts with winning their last two games to sit tied with Georgia as a two-loss team. They will inevitably be joined by the loser of Texas A&M and Texas in the regular season finale, given the fact that both are expected to win in Week 13 and set up a win-and-in game against the rivals.
Alabama could be tied with either A&M or Texas as well as Georgia, Tennessee, and Ole Miss, or any combination of this grouping when all is said and done. The first tiebreaker scenario goes to head-to-head competition, but these his specific grouping of teams didn’t quite play each other, depending on the alignment.
Here’s why head-to-head doesn’t break the teams up in any grouping:
- Ole Miss didn’t play Tennessee, Texas, or Texas A&M
- Alabama didn’t play Ole Miss, Texas, or Texas A&M
- Tennessee didn’t play Texas A&M, Texas, or Ole Miss
- Georgia didn’t play Texas A&M
Neither team playing Texas A&M or Texas in this situation means it will essentially automatically go to tiebreaker No. 2, which is record against common conference opponents. As we’ve determined, that won’t give us anything because of the lapse of playing each other in a round-robin setting here.
Figuring out the next tiebreaker is record against highest placed common opponents, also very little help in determining things right now. For Alabama, the best bet is win out and hope that perhaps A&M and Texas lose three of their combined four games, which makes this road a bit easier for the Tide.
Current SEC Standings
- 1) Texas Longhorns 9-1 (5-1)
- 2) Texas A&M Aggies 8-2 (5-1)
- 3) Georgia Bulldogs 8-2 (6-2)
- 4) Tennessee Volunteers 8-2 (5-2)
- 5) Alabama Crimson Tide 8-2 (4-2)
- 6) Ole Miss Rebels 8-2 (4-2)
- 7) South Carolina Gamecocks 7-3 (5-3)
- 8) Missouri Tigers 7-3 (3-3)
- 9) LSU Tigers 6-4 (3-3)
- 10) Vanderbilt Commodores 6-4 (3-3)
- 11) Arkansas Razorbacks 5-5 (3-4)
- 12) Florida Gators 5-5 (3-4)
- 13) Oklahoma Sooners 5-5 (1-5)
- 14) Auburn Tigers 4-6 (1-5)
- 15) Kentucky Wildcats 4-6 (1-6)
- 16) Mississippi State Bulldogs 2-8 (0-6)
Latest Alabama Playoff Probability Following Week 12
After Week 12, Alabama has a 29.28% chance to make the College Football Playoffs. Given the fact that they’re ranked No. 10 right now, they’re already in if the season were to end as an at-large team.
Alabama has a chance to make the SEC Championship Game, albeit a slim chance, but making the playoffs is a relative sure thing if they win the final two games on their schedule.
Crimson Tide’s Remaining Schedule
Using CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, we take a look at the remaining games for the Crimson Tide, but with our projected winning probability attached.
- @ Oklahoma: 81.6%
- vs. Auburn: 93.9%
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