The Oregon Ducks are in, punching their ticket with a hard-fought, come-from-behind victory over the Wisconsin Badgers. Now, the rest of the Big Ten Championship Game scenarios, however, are still up for grabs as Week 13 looms large for each of the contenders.
Big Ten Championship Game Odds
The Vegas lines will be out soon enough. But before we get their latest Big Ten Championship odds after Week 12, let’s look at the road map for each team and use the CFN Football Playoff Meter as a guide to see who is most likely to make (and win) the title game.
So, here’s what we did, we locked in the results following Oregon’s win over Wisconsin, as well as every other Big Ten game, for that matter.
We then simulated the Big Ten season over 10,000 times, locking in with those current results and simulating the final two weeks of action in the process. Here’s how each team fared and an explanation of how we got there further down.
Big Ten Championship Game Winning Probability
- Oregon: 49.66%
- Ohio State: 41.59%
- Indiana: 7.44%
- Penn State: 1.31%
So here’s what we’re looking at for the Big Ten Championship: Ohio State and Oregon made the game on over 90% of the simulations. That means Indiana has a less-than-likely shot at upsetting Ohio State on November 23, but again, crazier things have happened.
We’ll get into the exact road maps for each scenario below the standings.
Updated Big Ten Standings
1) Indiana Hoosiers 10-0 (7-0)
2) Oregon Ducks 11-0 (8-0)
3) Ohio State Buckeyes 9-1 (6-1)
4) Penn State Nittany Lions 9-1 (6-1)
5) Iowa Hawkeyes 6-4 (4-3)
6) Minnesota Golden Gophers 6-4 (4-3)
7) Illinois Fighting Illini 7-3 (4-3)
8) Washington Huskies 6-5 (4-4)
9) Wisconsin Badgers 5-5 (3-4)
10) Rutgers Scarlet Knights 6-4 (3-4)
11) Michigan Wolverines 5-5 (3-4)
12) USC Trojans 5-5 (3-5)
13) UCLA Bruins 4-6 (3-5)
14) Nebraska Cornhuskers 5-5 (2-5)
15) Michigan State Spartans 4-6 (2-5)
15) Northwestern Wildcats 4-6 (2-5)
17) Maryland Terrapins 4-6 (1-6)
18) Purdue Boilermakers 1-9 (0-7)
Oregon’s Big Ten Championship Road Map
For the Ducks, they now have the proverbial monkey off their backs. They are in the Big Ten Championship Game win or loss against Washington in Week 14. With a bye week to get healthy and potentially get Tez Johnson back for the postseason push, Oregon can sit back and watch their potential opponents square off in Week 13 with everything on the line.
Fortunately for Ducks fans, they have a leg up on the Huskies and on their inevitable Big Ten foe.
- Washington: 94.4%
- Theoretical Big Ten Championship Game vs. Ohio State: 55.4%
Ohio State’s Big Ten Championship Road Map
The Buckeyes handled their business against Northwestern from Wrigley Field but the season is far from finished. They have to now come back home for a two-game stretch against a contender and an arch rival.
They can’t rest on their laurels whatsoever because a loss to either team pushes them out of the Big Ten Championship game. Let’s get in to how that works.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
A win against Indiana and a subsequent loss against Michigan would pit Indiana and Penn State together in a tiebreaker scenario, not the Buckeyes. That’s because OSU would have two losses in conference play compared to Indiana and Penn State’s one.
So, again, even if OSU beats both Penn State and Indiana, but they win every other game, a loss to Michigan would boot the Buckeyes from the Big Ten Championship.
So, again, fans in Columbus, it’s simple: If you win the last two, you make the Big Ten Championship Game. Good thing for OSU is that they’re favored to win each of those last two by a large margin.
- Indiana: 71.6%
- Michigan: 91.3%
- Theoretical Big Ten Championship Game vs. Oregon: 44.6%
Indiana’s Big Ten Championship Road Map
Now here is where we get a bit tricky. Yes, as good as Indiana has been this season, we’re going to get our first glimpse at just how big of an underdog they’ll be against Ohio State soon. The hopes and chances of making the Big Ten Championship are clear for Indiana, and those include defeating Ohio State in hostile territory in Week 13.
But what if the Hoosiers lose against Ohio State? Are they still playoff-bound? Can they still make the Big Ten Championship Game?
The answers are yes, to both of those questions. They would just need some help. And that help would include Ohio State dropping the final game of the season to Michigan (they could).
If Indiana wins out, they’re in. If they lose to Ohio State but OSU drops the game to Michigan, the tiebreaker goes to scenario No. 2 and pits Penn State vs. Indiana. Here’s how that would shake out, for future reference in case this pans out this way.
Big Ten Tiebreaker No. 2 is decided by each team’s record against common conference opponents’, and Indiana + Penn State State have more than a few of those.
- vs. UCLA
- Indiana: win
- Penn State: win
- vs. Maryland
- Indiana: win
- Penn State: (hypothetical) win
- vs. Washington
- Indiana: win
- Penn State: win
- vs. Ohio State
- Indiana: (hypothetical) loss
- Penn State: loss
- vs. Purdue
- Indiana: (hypothetical) win
- Penn State: win
So each team would be 4-1 against common conference opponents and have lost to the same team (Ohio State). In this instance, we have to move to Big Ten tiebreaker scenario No. 4 as No. 3 does us no good either. Tiebreaker scenario No. 4 looks at ‘cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents.’
Looking at it that way and you have the following results:
- Indiana conference opponent winning percentage: 46.2% (42-49)
- UCLA: 4-6
- Maryland: 4-6
- Northwestern: 4-6
- Nebraska: 5-5
- Washington: 6-5
- Michigan State: 4-6
- Michigan: 5-5
- Ohio State: 9-1
- Purdue: 1-9
- Penn State conference opponent winning percentage: 52.2% (48-44)
- Illinois: 7-3
- UCLA: 4-6
- USC: 5-5
- Wisconsin: 5-5
- Ohio State: 9-1
- Washington: 6-5
- Purdue: 1-9
- Minnesota: 6-4
- Maryland: 4-6
And sadly, for Indiana fans, tiebreaker No. 4 goes to Penn State in this scenario. But there are multiple teams with two games remaining, enough to change Indiana’s fate.
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Hoosier fans would have to root for their different opponents to notch wins down the stretch: Northwestern, Nebraska, Michigan State, and Michigan, the latter of whom would need to beat Ohio State for this scenario to even come to life anyway.
- @ Ohio State: 28.4%
- Purdue: 96.6%
- Theoretical Big Ten Championship Game vs. Oregon: 30.7%
Penn State’s Big Ten Championship Road Map
After going heavily through the scenarios for the Hoosiers above, it’s clear that Penn State needs some help to get to the Big Ten Championship Game. But, of course, they’re not out of it. And of course, this is after they defeated Purdue easily in Week 12.
Here’s how this works for Penn State to make the Big Ten Championship:
- Indiana losses to Ohio State
- Ohio State loses to Michigan or Northwestern
- Penn State wins out
With that situation happening, the Nittany Lions would still need to have all of their Big Ten opponents win more than lose as they only hold a three-game advantage over Indiana in tiebreaker No. 4 in the Big Ten playbook.
So, while you root for Ohio State against Indiana and Michigan against Ohio State, Penn State fans, you’ll also be cheering for your non-common Big Ten opponents of Indiana to win out as well, increasing your opponent’s winning percentage. Those opponents you’re rooting for:
- Illinois
- USC
- Wisconsin
- Minnesota
Go on, Penn State fans, hope for the chaos. We know we are.
Here is Penn State’s winning probability down the stretch for good measure.
- @ Minnesota: 73.8%
- Maryland: 93.9%
- Theoretical Big Ten Championship Game vs. Oregon: 42.5%
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