ACC Championship Game Scenarios: SMU’s Victory Paves Way to Title Game, Clemson’s Path Is Clouded

The ACC Championship Game is nearly set, unless the improbable happens. With their victory in Week 12, the SMU Mustangs are a game away from clinching their berth.

However, the road map to winning the ACC Championship is now a bit murkier for the rest of the teams vying for the second spot in the title game.

ACC Championship Game Odds

The Vegas lines will be out soon enough. But we’ll get their latest ACC Championship odds after Week 12 using the CFN Football Playoff Meter as a guide to see who is most likely to make (and win) the title game.

So, here’s what we did, we locked in the results from every ACC game this weekend and then simulated the ACC season over 10,000 times. We locked in the current results and simulated the final two weeks of action in the process.

Here’s how each team fared and an explanation of how we got there further down.

ACC Championship Game Winning Probability

• SMU: 41.04%
• Miami: 33.00%
• Clemson: 24.60%

The numbers above are how many times each team made the ACC Championship Game and subsequently won the conference in the process. ACC teams not listed did not make or reach the ACC Championship Game in any of our simulations.

We’ve dramatically dwindled the field down after Week 12 as only SMU, Miami, and Clemson are alive for the title game.

The current standings are below, with the team road maps listed further below. Here’s how the table sits right now in the ACC.

Updated ACC Standings

1. SMU Mustangs: 6-0 (9-1 overall)
2. Clemson Tigers: 7-1 (8-2)
3. Miami Hurricanes: 5-1 (9-1)
4. Syracuse Orange: 4-3 (7-3)
5. Louisville Cardinals: 4-3 (6-4)
6. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: 4-3 (6-4)
7. Virginia Cavaliers: 3-3 (5-5)
8. Duke Blue Devils: 3-3 (7-3)
9. Pittsburgh Panthers: 3-3 (7-3)
10. Virginia Tech Hokies: 3-3 (5-5)
11. North Carolina Tar Heels: 2-3 (5-4)
12. Wake Forest Demon Deacons: 2-3 (4-5)
13. Boston College Eagles: 2-4 (5-5)
14. NC State Wolfpack: 2-4 (5-5)
15. Stanford Cardinal: 2-5 (3-7)
16. California Golden Bears: 1-5 (5-5)
17. Florida State Seminoles: 1-7 (1-9)

SMU’s ACC Championship Road Map

The leader in the clubhouse is the Mustangs from SMU. It’s nearly time to party in Dallas because the Mustangs are a win away from securing an ACC title appearance in their first year in the league.

After being handed a 79.9% chance to knock of Boston College, SMU did just that, despite a late push from the Eagles. Now, it’s a trip to Virginia and a home game against Cal that stand in their way.

MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor

Fortunately for the Mustangs, they should be heavy favorites in each of those games, similar to how heavily favored they were against BC.

It’s not as easy as ‘win one and they’re in’ for SMU, but it would be if they beat Virginia. Beating Virginia gives SMU the tiebreaker over Clemson, as ACC tiebreaking scenarios takes into account the combined record against common opponents. Since SMU defeated Louisville, they own the tiebreaker over Clemson, if they finish with the same conference record.

Beat Virginia, and you’re in, SMU.

• @ Virginia: 78.1%
• vs. California: 75.5%
• SMU’s ACC Championship Winning Probability: 41.04%

Miami’s ACC Championship Road Map

Miami was off in Week 12, sitting idly by as they watched the majority of the rest of the ACC fall away. However, they didn’t quite increase their chances because they still have two ACC games on the schedule and must win out now that Clemson won over Pittsburgh.

Here’s why that is the case.

For starters, with two wins to end the year, Miami would earn a 7-1 conference record, their lone loss coming in Week 11 to Georgia Tech. That 7-1 record has already been achieved by Clemson as they have two non-conference games to end their season.

That means, if Miami wins out, they will land on the tiebreaking scenarios to select which team between Miami and Clemson earns the second seed in the ACC title. This is, of course, assuming SMU makes the title game with a win over Virginia in Week 13.

So here’s how the tiebreaker would turn out between Clemson and Miami. Let’s walk through the tiebreaking scenarios to make this clear, in this instance.

• Tiebreaker No. 1 — Head-to-Head Competition
  • no such games between Miami and Clemson
• Tiebreaker No. 2 — Win % Against Common Conference Opponents
  • Assuming both teams win out, here’s how their winning percentage against common opponents would look:
    • Florida State (both won)
    • Wake Forest (Clemson already won; Miami would win in this scenario)
    • Louisville (Clemson lost, Miami won)

Miami would hold a 3-0 record against common opponents, while Clemson’s loss to Louisville would put them at 2-1 against common ACC opponents. Therefore, Miami is still technically in control of their destiny.

• vs. Wake Forest: 94.8%
• @ Syracuse: 94.8%
• Miami’s ACC Championship Winning Probability: 33.00%

Clemson’s ACC Championship Road Map

The loss to Louisville really hurts the Tigers. That’s because, as stated above, they don’t earn the tiebreaker over SMU or Miami. Both the Hurricanes and Mustangs beat Louisville this year, meaning if either team finishes with a 7-1 record in the ACC, there’s a slim chance Clemson even makes the game.

But there is some hope. And that’s if SMU loses to Virginia in Week 13. Even if SMU wins against Cal the week after, a potential loss to Virginia would give SMU that 7-1 record to a team that Clemson beat.

All this to say, they’d split tiebreaking scenario No. 2 and we’d move down to tiebreaker No. 3 for the ACC title spot. But tiebreaker No. 3 doesn’t hold any weight as Clemson and SMU have no other combined common opponents than their ACC foes.

So it’d be on to tiebreaker No. 4 in this scenario, or as they say “combined win percentage of conference opponents.” And this is when we’d have to wait and see where the difference comes into play.

Right now, here’s how SMU and Clemson’s conference opponents sit in this scenario:

• SMU’s combined conference opponent record: 39-41
• Clemson’s combined conference opponent record: 36-43

Now, those combined conference opponent records can change down the stretch, and Clemson would need their non-common opponents to find their way to some victories down the stretch. Those ACC teams that Clemson needs to win are: Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, and NC State.

Tech plays Duke and UVA, Wake plays Miami and Duke, and NC State plays Georgia Tech and North Carolina.

Clemson’s not out of it mathematically, but it’s certainly hoping for a little luck.

• vs. The Citadel: 99.9%
• vs. South Carolina: 71.6%
• Clemson’s ACC Championship Winning Probability: 20.00%

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