The BYU Cougars prevailed and the Colorado Buffaloes took over sole possession of second place in the Big 12. Can these two teams hold in what feels like the easiest conference to predict at this point?
Like everything in college football, it’s not quite that simple.
Big 12 Championship Game Odds
The Vegas lines will be out soon enough. But before we get their latest Big 12 Championship odds after Week 11, let’s look at the road map for each team and use the CFN Football Playoff Meter as a guide to see who is most likely to make (and win) the title game.
So, here’s what we did, we locked in the results following BYU and Colorado’s wins on Saturday, as well as every other Big 12 game, for that matter.
We then simulated the Big 12 season over 10,000 times, locking in with those current results and simulating the final three weeks of action in the process. Here’s how each team fared and an explanation of how we got there further down.
Big 12 Championship Game Winning Probability
- BYU: 46.04%
- Colorado: 43.64%
- Kansas State: 4.61%
- Arizona State: 2.64%
- TCU: 1.39%
- Iowa State: 1.11%
- West Virginia: 0.57%
Technically, all of these teams are alive with a full three weeks of action remaining. Despite looking more like BYU and Colorado’s conference to lose at this point, with the amount of cross-game action between these nine teams, it’s a mess for the Big 12 at this point if anything happens at the top.
We’ll get into those scenarios below the updated standings below.
Updated Big 12 Standings
1) BYU Cougars 9-0 (6-0)
2) Colorado Buffaloes 7-2 (5-1)
3) Iowa State Cyclones 7-2 (4-2)
4) Kansas State Wildcats 7-2 (4-2)
5) Arizona State Sun Devils 7-2 (4-2)
6) West Virginia Mountaineers 5-4 (4-2)
7) TCU Horned Frogs 6-4 (4-3)
8) Texas Tech Red Raiders 6-4 (4-3)
9) Cincinnati Bearcats 5-4 (3-3)
10) Baylor Bears 5-4 (3-3)
11) Houston Cougars 4-5 (3-3)
12) Kansas Jayhawks 3-6 (2-4)
13) UCF Knights 4-6 (2-5)
14) Arizona Wildcats 3-6 (1-5)
15) Utah Utes 4-5 (1-5)
16) Oklahoma State Cowboys 3-7 (0-7)
BYU’s Big 12 Championship Road Map
So here’s how it works for BYU: win out, you’re in the Big 12 Championship Game. Drop one, you’re in the Big 12 Championship Game.
Drop two, well, then it gets confusing. But right now, the College Football Playoffs are clearly within grasp just as the Big 12 Championship is for the Cougars.
After getting past arch-rival Utah in dramatic fashion, you have to expect head coach Kalani Sitake to clean up what went wrong (man, there were some serious time management and egregious errors that can’t happen) for the last three games.
The trip to Arizona State looms large, but if BYU wins two games, they’ve clinched their spot in the title game.
- Kansas: 87.8%
- @ Arizona State: 65.7%
- Houston: 91.1%
Colorado’s Big 12 Championship Road Map
Gone are the jokes around the Colorado program as the postseason scenarios have now arrived. Shedeur Sanders and the Colorado offense is clicking while Travis Hunter and the defense is starting to play cohesive football.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With one loss in conference, a tough one against Kansas State, Colorado essentially has to win every game on their schedule to guarantee their place. They can get some help with Kansas State dropping one of their final three, but that seems less likely with how Iowa State has been playing lately.
So, for now, Buffs’ are cheering on finishing the season 10-2 and not having to worry about any of the tiebreaking scenarios. They, like BYU, are in control of their own destiny.
- Utah: 78.1%
- @ Kansas: 73.4%
- Oklahoma State: 84.2%
Kansas State’s Big 12 Championship Road Map
The Wildcats have the third-best chances to win the Big 12, but the top chances of any team who doesn’t control their own destiny. That’s because they own the head-to-head tiebreaker against Colorado and if the Buffs were to drop a game, KSU would make it in (if they also win the remaining three games this year).
It gets a bit sillier than that, if KSU loses and Colorado loses two, but for now, KSU can plan on winning out and getting a Colorado loss as their easiest way in.
- Arizona State: 66.4%
- Cincinnati: 79.9%
- @ Iowa State: 50.4%
Arizona State’s Big 12 Championship Road Map
Like Kansas State above them, Arizona State’s got good chances for a team that doesn’t control their own destiny. They can knock off Kansas State in Manhattan in Week 12 to increase their odds and all but eliminate the Wildcats, but they’d still need a Colorado loss to get into the picture.
MORE: Sign up for College Football Network’s exclusive free newsletter for more scenarios and even more content
By virtue of knocking off the team that beat Colorado (KSU), the common opponent winning percentage would go the way of the Sun Devils, if Colorado were to lose.
Of course, this also considers the rest of their games on the schedule — most notably a game against BYU at home. BYU can afford to drop a game, so ASU fans will be hoping the Cougars potentially switch into cruise control down the stretch and get some luck to find their way into the Big 12 Championship.
- @ Kansas State: 33.6%
- BYU: 34.3%
- @ Arizona: 54.3%
TCU’s Big 12 Championship Road Map
The TCU Horned Frogs aren’t mathematically eliminated from the Big 12 Championship, but they certainly need some help to get there. Sitting at 4-3 in conference play, the Horned Frogs would need a single loss by Iowa State, Arizona State (plausible), Kansas State, and West Virginia to create a bottleneck of three-loss teams in the conference.
This scenario also includes Colorado dropping two games to go into a massive four- or five-team tiebreaker scenario.
With three games remaining to play for most teams except TCU, Week 12 will give the Horned Frogs updated odds, but could also eliminate them from postseason play in the process if the chips don’t fall as they need to.
- Arizona: 68.8%
- @ Cincinnati: 58.9%
Iowa State’s Big 12 Championship Road Map
The Cyclones have dropped two in a row, and done so to teams that didn’t even realistically find themselves in the hunt for the Big 12. Their hopes are simpler, but given their recent form, it’s not likely to expect Iowa State to be anything more than a potential spoiler at this rate.
They can, however, spoil arch-rival Kansas State’s season by knocking them off in the annual Farmageddeon matchup to end the year. With some luck and a couple of losses by Colorado and the other two-loss conference teams, Iowa State can get it done, though.
- Cincinnati: 74.9%
- @ Utah: 58.9%
- Kansas State: 49.6%
West Virginia’s Big 12 Championship Road Map
Yes, the Mountaineers are still alive in the Big 12 race, but they don’t come anything close to controlling their own destiny. They need to win out, of course, but they’d also need losses by Kansas State and Iowa State just to start as both teams own the head-to-head tiebreaker against WVU.
Win your games, Mountaineers, and then we can focus on the rest of the scenarios. Week 12 will give us a ton of answers around the multiple scenarios and can allow us to use simpler math to create these odds.
- Baylor: 63.1%
- UCF: 75.5%
- @ Texas Tech: 44.4%
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.