Let the conversation begin! The College Football Playoff Selection Committee has given us a glimpse inside their thoughts on the top teams in the sport, throwing together the first College Football Playoff Rankings of the 12-team postseason tournament era.
From those initial rankings, there is a projected bracket, and we’ve gone one step further by predicting the spreads for those games using the College Football Network Football Playoff Meter.
College Football Playoff First-Round Spread Predictions
Ohio State Buckeyes (-14.5) vs. Boise State Broncos
The Ohio State Buckeyes landed as the second-ranked team in the initial rankings, slotting in as the fifth seed by virtue of not being expected to win their conference. That sets up an intriguing potential matchup with the Boise State Broncos, who were the 12th-ranked team in the inaugural rankings.
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Our College Football Playoff predictions make the Mountain West team a projected two-score underdog. Spencer Danielson’s team has already come close to playing spoiler against a Big Ten outfit after playing the Oregon Ducks close at the start of the season. Don’t expect Ryan Day’s team to underestimate Ashton Jeanty and the Broncos if they collide in the first round.
Tennessee Volunteers (-2.5) vs. Indiana Hoosiers
The Indiana Hoosiers may have been underrated by the College Football Playoff Selection Committee as one of just five undefeated teams came in as the eighth-ranked team but take the ninth-seed due to ranking behind the projected Big 12 champion BYU Cougars. There’s plenty of argument to be made that they should have been ranked higher.
Despite that, our College Football Playoff predictions install Curt Cignetti’s team as a 2.5-point underdog in their projected matchup with the Tennessee Volunteers. Part of this accounts for the home-field advantage for the SEC outfit, showcasing the importance of landing somewhere in the 5-8 seed range if you miss out on a bye to the quarterfinal stage.
Texas Longhorns (-5) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Arguably the juiciest of the College Football Playoff matchups thrown together by the intial rankings, the Alabama Crimson Tide would travel to Austin to take on the Texas Longhorns in an all-SEC matchup. These two powerhouse programs avoided each other in the Longhorns’ first season in the conference, but it’s less than 18 months since they last came together in anger.
That 10-point win in 2023 provides a marker for how this game could turn out. Texas also holds an 8-2-1 head-to-head advantage over the Crimson Tide. While Alabama won the last time the two teams met in Austin, Steve Sarkisian’s team has largely been successful in their home state against the Crimson Tide. The Longhorns are stacked top-to-bottom in 2024.
Penn State Nittany Lions (-6) vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Not many people expected the Notre Dame Fighting Irish to be a factor in the College Football Playoff when they lost to the Northern Illinois Huskies in Week 2 of the 2024 college football season. However, that loss flipped a switch in the Fighting Irish, and they’ve powered their way into contention with a winning run combined with what now looks like an impressive Week 1 win.
The Penn State Nittany Lions didn’t take much of a hit in the initial rankings after losing to Ohio State in Week 10. They’re the sixth-ranked team which translates into the seventh-seed. If Drew Allar plays up to his talent (and is healthy), then the Nittany Lions hard-hitting defense led by Abdul Carter should have the measure of the Fighting Irish with home advantage.
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