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    ACC Championship Scenarios: 9 Teams Headlined By Miami, SMU Remain

    Clemson's loss threw a wrench in our ACC Championship scenarios, as half of the conference is still mathematically alive. We ran the numbers to see who wins.

    The ACC Championship Game is fast approaching, and with only two teams undefeated remaining in the conference, it’s simple for Miami and SMU: keep winning.

    For the rest of the conference, help is needed. Nevertheless, the ACC is truly wide open, and if the Hurricanes or Mustangs slip up, there are a host of other teams that would benefit.

    Two teams lurk and need some tiebreaker help, while five others have a chance. How can each remaining team make the ACC Championship for a chance at the College Football Playoff?

    CFN CFB Playoff Predictor
    College Football Network’s College Football Playoff Predictor is a tool that allows you to play out various weekly scenarios to see how the CFP picture changes with each scenario.

    ACC Championship Game Odds

    The Vegas lines will be out soon enough. But before we get their latest ACC Championship odds after Week 10, let’s look at the road map for each team and use the CFN Football Playoff Meter as a guide to see who is most likely to make (and win) the title game.

    CFN simulated the ACC season over 10,000 times, locking in with the current results and simulating the final four weeks of action in the process. Here’s how each team fared and an explanation of how we got there further down.

    ACC Championship Game Winning Probability

    • Miami: 45.43%
    • SMU: 28.38%
    • Virginia Tech: 13.42%
    • Clemson: 11.82%
    • NC State: 2.71%
    • Wake Forest: 0.24%
    • North Carolina: 0.22%
    • Pittsburgh: 0.2%
    • Louisville: 0.1%

    The numbers above are how many times each team made the ACC Championship Game and subsequently won the conference in the process. ACC teams not listed did not make or reach the ACC Championship Game in any of our SIMs.

    There are some weird SIMs, largely because of the ACC’s “highest conference winning percentage of conference teams played” tiebreaker and the fact that several teams have four conference games remaining.

    The current standings are below, with the team road maps listed further below. Here’s how the table sits right now in the ACC.

    Updated ACC Standings

    1. Miami Hurricanes: 5-0 (9-0 overall)
    2. SMU Mustangs: 5-0 (8-1)
    3. Clemson Tigers: 5-1 (6-2)
    4. Pittsburgh Panthers: 3-1 (7-1)
    5. Louisville Cardinals: 4-2 (6-3)
    6. Syracuse Orange: 3-2 (6-2)
    7. Virginia Tech Hokies: 3-2 (5-4)
    8. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: 3-3 (5-4)
    9. Wake Forest Demon Deacons: 2-2 (4-4)
    10. Duke Blue Devils: 2-3 (6-3)
    11. North Carolina Tar Heels: 2-3 (5-4)
    12. NC State Wolfpack: 2-3 (5-4)
    13. Virginia Cavaliers: 2-3 (5-4)
    14. Boston College Eagles: 1-3 (4-4)
    15. Stanford Cardinal: 1-5 (2-7)
    16. Florida State Seminoles: 1-7 (1-8)
    17. California Golden Bears: 0-4 (4-4)

    Miami’s ACC Championship Road Map

    Let’s start easy. If Miami wins out, the Hurricanes will be in the title game. Even if they lose a game, though, they’ll have a chance. However, Miami’s conference schedule isn’t looking overly difficult, and after playing both Florida State and California, they could lose out in a tiebreaker.

    Expect the Hurricanes to be there at the end, with a 62.6% chance of finishing the regular season undefeated. The CFN FPM looks at Miami’s schedule and gives it an extremely high chance of making the ACC Championship Game.

    • @ Georgia Tech: 79.6%
    • vs. Wake Forest: 94.8%
    • @ Syracuse: 94.8%
    • Miami’s ACC Championship Winning Probability: 45.43%

    SMU’s ACC Championship Road Map

    Just like the Hurricanes, SMU’s path forward is simple — just keep winning. If the Mustangs finish undefeated in the conference, they’re guaranteed a spot in the championship game, thanks to a Clemson loss in Week 10.

    However, that path is harder than Miami’s with multiple slightly more difficult games remaining. That could help the Mustangs in the case of a loss, though, as it looks like SMU will finish with one of the harder conference schedules, giving them a key tiebreaker.

    MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor

    FPM expects the Mustangs to be in the championship game, setting up a College Football Playoff play-in game with Miami.

    • vs. Boston College: 79.9%
    • @ Virginia: 78.1%
    • vs. California: 75.5%
    • SMU’s ACC Championship Winning Probability: 28.38%

    Virginia Tech’s ACC Championship Road Map

    How about a surprise third team in our simulations? The Hokies have two conference losses, but thanks to a difficult schedule and the potential to beat one of the teams ahead of them, they could sneak into the ACC Championship through the back door.

    The Hokies have a difficult remaining schedule, so they’d need to finish the year without another loss first. But all it’d take from there would be two losses from SMU and a Clemson win over Pittsburgh. That’s unlikely, but possible.

    • vs. Clemson: 35.9%
    • @ Duke: 50.6%
    • vs. Virginia: 73.4%
    • Virginia Tech’s ACC Championship Winning Probability: 13.42%

    Clemson’s ACC Championship Road Map

    The loss to Louisville really hurt the Tigers. Their ACC championship percentage took the biggest hit of any team in the conference last week, but there’s still a chance. Clemson needs a loss from either SMU or Miami and some other help as well to boost its tiebreaker percentages.

    However, the Tigers could still make the College Football Playoff as an at-large team. But first, Clemson needs to win its next two games. The final non-conference games don’t matter in terms of ACC tiebreakers, but the Tigers will need to win those to keep their at-large chances alive.

    The CFN FPM thinks the path is much harder going forward than it has been so far.

    • @ Virginia Tech: 64.1%
    • @ Pittsburgh: 52.5%
    • vs. The Citadel: 99.9%
    • vs. South Carolina: 71.6%
    • Clemson’s ACC Championship Winning Probability: 11.82%

    NC State’s ACC Championship Road Map

    The top four teams in our FPM won nearly 9,700 out of the 10,000 simulations, but there are five other teams left with a mathematical chance to win the conference — led by NC State.

    Currently sitting in 12th, the Wolfpack has the tiebreakers — but that’s about it. However, no one knows how to make an end-of-year run to 8-4 quite like Dave Doeren.

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    The path ahead is grim, but find a few weird bounces in a conference known for weird bounces, and who knows?

    • vs. Duke: 51.8%
    • @ Georgia Tech: 36.9%
    • @ North Carolina: 53.8%
    • NC State’s ACC Championship Winning Probability: 2.71%

    North Carolina’s ACC Championship Road Map

    North Carolina would need a lot of help, but it’s not crazy to think the Tar Heels could end up 5-3 in the conference. The results needed are too complicated to list, but it’s mathematically possible that they could be in contention.

    • vs. Wake Forest: 58.9%
    • @ Boston College: 33.1%
    • vs. NC State: 46.2%
    • North Carolina’s ACC Championship Winning Probability: 0.22%

    Wake Forest’s ACC Championship Road Map

    This is where we use the “So, you’re saying there’s a chance?” meme. In 10,000 simulations, Wake Forest won the ACC 24 times, which is more than I expected.

    Weirdly, Wake Forest has a bit of power in these scenarios. If the Demon Deacons finish 4-0, they’ll be 6-2 in the conference with a win over Miami.

    • vs. California: 34.3%
    • @ North Carolina: 41.1%
    • @ Miami: 5.2%
    • vs. Duke: 36.9%
    • Wake Forest’s ACC Championship Winning Probability: 0.24%

    Pittsburgh’s ACC Championship Road Map

    The final two teams here fell victim to tiebreaker luck.

    The Panthers have had an extremely easy conference schedule, so even if they win out (just a 10% chance, per our numbers) they’ll still need a ton of help just to make the championship game. FPM has also been low on the Panthers this season and expects them to lose a couple more games. Thus, even a championship berth doesn’t guarantee a competitive championship game.

    • vs. Virginia: 80.2%
    • vs. Clemson: 47.5%
    • @ Louisville: 42.6%
    • @ Boston College: 63.6%
    • Pittsburgh’s ACC Championship Winning Probability: 0.2%

    Louisville’s ACC Championship Road Map

    Louisville just needed a few bounces to go its way this season, and this would be a completely different discussion. The Cardinals have a difficult schedule, one of the hardest in the conference. Unfortunately, they lost games (and thus tiebreakers) to both SMU and Miami.

    So, even if the Cardinals win out, they’d need one of those two teams to lose three conference games. Even if that happens, Pittsburgh also has to beat Clemson, and Louisville would have to win all tiebreakers against any other two-loss teams. It’s a rough draw for the Cardinals.

    • @ Stanford: 84.2%
    • vs. Pittsburgh: 57.4%
    • @ Kentucky: 65.1%
    • Louisville’s ACC Championship Winning Probability: 0.10%

    College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACCBig TenBig 12SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.

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