The Big 12 Championship Game is fast approaching now that we’re in November. With only one team undefeated remaining in the conference, it’s simple for BYU: keep winning.
Several other teams have a chance, but a few will need some help. How can each remaining team make the Big 12 Championship for a chance to make the College Football Playoff?
Big 12 Championship Game Odds
The Vegas lines will be out soon enough, but before we get their latest Big 12 Championship Odds after Week 10, let’s look at the road map for each team and use the CFN Football Playoff Meter as a guide to see who is most likely to make (and win) the title game.
CFN simulated the SEC season over 10,000 times, locked in with the current results and simulating the final four weeks of action in the process. Here’s how each team fared and an explanation of how we got there further down.
Big 12 Championship Game Winning Probability
- BYU: 43.98%
- Colorado: 22.65%
- Iowa State: 16.57%
- Kansas State: 11.39%
- Texas Tech: 2.26%
- Arizona State: 2.16%
- TCU: 0.69%
- West Virginia: 0.27%
- Cincinnati: 0.03%
These numbers above are how many times each team made the Big 12 Championship Game and subsequently won the Big 12 in the process. Any team not listed above never made and won the Big 12 Championship Game.
The current standings are below — but scroll just below those to find the road maps for every team in the hunt. Here’s how the table sits right now in the Big 12.
Updated Big 12 Standings
- BYU Cougars: 5-0 (8-0 overall)
- Iowa State Cyclones: 4-1 (7-1)
- Colorado Buffaloes: 4-1 (6-2)
- Kansas State Wildcats: 4-2 (7-2)
- Texas Tech Red Raiders: 4-2 (6-3)
- Cincinnati Bearcats: 3-2 (5-3)
- Arizona State Sun Devils: 3-2 (6-2)
- West Virginia Mountaineers: 3-2 (4-4)
- Baylor Bears: 3-3 (5-4)
- Houston Cougars: 3-3 (4-5)
- TCU Horned Frogs: 3-3 (5-4)
- UCF Knights: 2-4 (4-5)
- Utah Utes: 1-4 (4-4)
- Kansas Jayhawks: 1-4 (2-6)
- Arizona Wildcats: 1-5 (3-6)
- Oklahoma State Cowboys: 0-6 (3-6)
BYU’s Big 12 Championship Road Map
OK, so the first one here is easy: win out and you’re in. Though that’s not the case for every team, if BYU wins out, the Cougars will finish the regular season undefeated in conference and overall, an obvious entrant into the Big 12 Championship Game.
Especially given Iowa State and Kansas State’s Week 10 losses, expect the Cougars to be there at the end, but they still need to finish strong and ultimately win the game to guarantee a College Football Playoff berth.
The CFN FPM looks at BYU’s schedule and gives it a high chance of making the Big 12 Championship Game. BYU’s winning probabilities for each game remaining are below:
- @ Utah: 76.6%
- vs. Kansas: 91.3%
- @ Arizona State: 73.4%
- vs. Houston: 93.1%
- BYU’s Big 12 Championship Winning Probability: 43.98%
Colorado’s Big 12 Championship Road Map
Despite being behind Iowa State in the standings, Colorado controls its own destiny. Why? Well, it has to do with the Big 12’s tie-breaker policy. If two teams are tied, it will go to the head-to-head record. But Colorado and Iowa State don’t play each other this season. So, what’s the next tie-breaker? Winning percentage against common opponents.
Colorado plays Texas Tech this weekend, and a win would really help Colorado’s case since Iowa State just lost to the Red Raiders. We could keep going on tie-breakers though, as the Cyclones also play Kansas State, the conference team that beat Colorado.
CFN’s FPM gives both of those things a chance to happen, especially given the strength of the Shedeur Sanders-Travis Hunter combination.
- @ Texas Tech: 45.7%
- vs. Utah: 65.7%
- @ Kansas: 65.1%
- vs. Oklahoma State: 76.6%
- Colorado’s Big 12 Championship Winning Probability: 22.65%
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Iowa State’s Big 12 Championship Road Map
Iowa State’s conference title chances are intertwined with Colorado’s. If the Buffaloes lose this weekend, it becomes quite simple. If not, the Cyclones will need to win out and get some tie-breaker luck so complicated that I don’t have the capacity to calculate it at this time.
While the Cyclones have a difficult finale, the rest of the schedule isn’t bad.
- @ Kansas: 77.4%
- vs. Cincinnati: 82.1%
- @ Utah: 65.7%
- vs. Kansas State: 60.6%
- Iowa State’s Big 12 Championship Winning Probability: 16.57%
Kansas State’s Big 12 Championship Road Map
While Kansas State does not control its own destiny, only a few things need to fall the Wildcats’ way to make it to the championship. The Wildcats only have three games left, and winning out would automatically jump them ahead of Iowa State, via a head-to-head win. They also hold a potential tie-breaker over Colorado and play three teams in the top seven to end the year. If a tie-breaker is needed, Kansas State will likely win it.
The CFN FPM gives the Wildcats a chance to win every remaining game, though it favors Iowa State in the finale.
- vs. Arizona State: 67.7%
- vs. Cincinnati: 79.6%
- @ Iowa State: 39.4%
- Kansas State’s Big 12 Championship Winning Probability: 11.39%
Texas Tech’s Big 12 Championship Road Map
There’s a huge drop-off after Kansas State before the next five teams that are technically still alive. Theoretically, Texas Tech could finish 9-3 overall and 6-2 in Big 12 play and still miss the championship game if the Red Raiders lose a tie-breaker to Kansas State or if Iowa State wins out.
That’s why the CFN FPM is so low on Texas Tech’s championship-winning probabilities despite being slight favorites in their last three games.
- vs. Colorado: 54.3%
- @ Oklahoma State: 64.1%
- vs. West Virginia: 63.1%
- Texas Tech’s Big 12 Championship Winning Probability: 2.26%
Arizona State’s Championship Road Map
While it wouldn’t be the craziest thing that’s ever happened in the history of college football, some wild results are needed for Arizona State to reach the Big 12 Championship Game. Currently seventh in the standings, the Sun Devils could finish 10-2 and 6-2 in the conference and still fail to reach the championship game. They need some help, even if they’re able to pull off multiple upsets to end the year.
CFN FPM finds it unlikely that the Sun Devils win out and even less likely that winning out actually pushes them into the conference championship game. Still, there’s a chance. Here are their remaining games:
- vs. UCF: 73.8%
- @ Kansas State: 32.3%
- vs. BYU: 26.6%
- @ Arizona: 51.8%
- Arizona State’s Big 12 Championship Winning Probability: 2.16%
TCU’s Big 12 Championship Road Map
TCU is still mathematically alive in the Big 12 Championship Game race, which is a sentence I did not expect to write a month ago. Even I’m not sure how this would happen, but it’s the Big 12, and the Big 12 loves chaos.
- vs. Oklahoma State: 66.9%
- vs. Arizona: 58.9%
- @ Cincinnati: 50.4%
- TCU’s Big 12 Championship Winning Probability: 0.69%
West Virginia’s Big 12 Championship Road Map
This won’t happen. It’s less than half as likely as TCU winning the Big 12 Championship Game, but West Virginia did win in 27 of our 10,000 sims. They’d need to win out and get a lot of help. Like a lot of help.
- @ Cincinnati: 52,5%
- vs. Baylor: 58.9%
- vs. UCF: 73%
- @ Texas Tech: 36.9%
- West Virginia’s Big 12 Championship Winning Probability: 0.27%
Cincinnati’s Big 12 Championship Road Map
With one-ninth of West Virginia’s conference-winning probability, Cincinnati is officially our “least likely but technically possible Big 12 Championship Game winner” in our sim. The Bearcats won a whopping three championships out of 10,000 sims, so it’d basically take divine intervention for this to happen. In the 2024 Big 12, can we really rule that out?
FPM has the Bearcats as underdogs in all four remaining games, giving them just a 0.86% chance to win out, let alone get the other help needed to make the Big 12 Championship Game and then win it.
- vs. West Virginia: 47.5%
- @ Iowa State: 17.9%
- @ Kansas State: 20.4%
- vs. TCU: 49.6%
- Cincinnati’s Big 12 Championship Winning Probability: 0.03%
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