The Navy Midshipmen felt they could have an outside shot at the College Football Playoff. Then a team that had two turnovers all year coughed it up six times in a 51-14 blowout loss to Notre Dame.
Not all is lost for the Midshipmen, as they’re still undefeated in AAC play and can still win a conference title. Next up are the Rice Owls. Find out if we think the Midshipmen can win — and cover — in this Navy vs. Rice prediction.
Navy vs. Rice Betting Preview
All Navy vs. Rice odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Oct. 28, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Navy -8 - Spread
Navy -11 - Moneyline
Navy -440, Rice +340 - Over/Under
51 points - Game Time
Nov. 2, 4 p.m. ET - Location
Rice Stadium | Houston, Texas - Predicted Weather at Kick
81 degrees, cloudy, 13 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN2
Both Rice and Navy had interesting weeks last week. The Midshipmen were blown out against Notre Dame, and Rice fired Mike Bloomgren on Sunday after a disappointing start to the year.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
This line has had some interesting movement, down from 12.5 to start the week to its current position at Navy -11. The total is at 51 points, implying a final score close to 31-20 in favor of the Midshipmen.
Navy’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is a bit lower on the Midshipmen, and the Vegas line is moving in that direction. Navy is a slightly smaller favorite at eight points, a win probability of 73.8% per the metric. The metric has a wide range of outcomes for the Midshipmen, as they’ll have a winning probability between 37% and 75% in every remaining game.
- at Rice: 73.8
- at USF: 49.6%
- vs. Tulane: 39.4%
- at ECU: 74.2%
- vs. Army: 37.4%
Rice’s Winning Probability
Conversely, CFN’s FPM gives Rice a 26.2% chance to win and has the Owls as heavy underdogs in three of their remaining four games. While bowl eligibility is extremely unlikely, the Owls are likely looking for some positive momentum heading into the offseason.
- vs. Navy: 26.2%
- at Memphis: 12.6%
- at UAB: 54.3%
- vs. USF: 32.3%
Prediction for Navy vs. Rice
As weird as this sounds, I don’t think Navy was all that overmatched against Notre Dame, even given the scoreline. The Midshipmen offense, in particular, looked just fine when it held onto the ball.
Navy averaged 5.2 yards per carry, over six yards per pass, and only attempted a field goal or punted on three of its drives. The issue was simply holding onto the ball, as the Midshipmen had seven fumbles on the day, losing five.
I’m not here to say that a bounce here or there would have made that a game, but I do look at it as more of an outlier than an indication of Navy’s true talent level. Typically, if a team averaging a turnover every three games has six in one game, we assume that game is the exception to the rule.
I’d follow that advice here.
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The line movement on this game doesn’t make sense to me. I took Navy -12.5 early as one of my favorite lines of the week, and yet it’s moved in the opposite direction.
Rice just fired its coach, and while a “coaching bounce” is certainly a possibility, I find it hard to believe that one of the worst scoring and red-zone offenses in the country magically gets better after canning its coach.
Navy will get back to what it does best — controlling the clock and the tempo while lulling teams to sleep before hitting big throws behind the defense once the opposition creeps too far into the box.
I fully expect a Navy blowout here to get the season back on track. Expect the Midshipmen to be clinical with its possessions while the Owls flounder their scoring opportunities.
Rice may put something together late to take this over the total, but weird line movement or not, I’m rolling with Navy.
Prediction: Navy 38, Rice 14
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